Foresight Forge - Prediction Log

2025-11-01 — 1 items — newsletter

• U.S. CPI excluding food and energy (core, YoY, SA) for October 2025 will print between 3.3% and 3.7%. — 57%
• U.S. CPI (headline, YoY, SA) for October 2025 will print between 2.8% and 3.2%. — 56%
• ISM Services Prices Index for October 2025 will print at or above 56.5. — 55%
• U.S. Challenger job cuts announced for October 2025 will be at or below 45,000. — 52%
• The U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield (FRED: DGS10) will close at or below 4.25% on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 49%
• MBA 30-year fixed mortgage rate (U.S., weekly survey) will print at or below 7.25% in at least one weekly release by 2025-11-30. — 51%
• USD/INR (Yahoo Finance: INR=X) will trade at or above 85.00 on at least one UTC trading day by 2025-11-30. — 41%
• Bitcoin (BTC-USD) will trade at or above $77,500 on at least one UTC trading day by 2025-11-30. — 40%
• ICE Endex Dutch TTF front-month natural gas will settle at or below €35.00/MWh on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 43%
• EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage: Lower-48 working gas in storage will reach at or above 3,750 Bcf in at least one weekly report released by 2025-11-30. — 55%
• UK CPI (headline, YoY, NSA) for October 2025 will print between 2.8% and 3.4%, per the ONS release. — 56%
• By 2025-11-30, Anthropic will update its public acceptable use or safety policy to explicitly restrict or prohibit medical or legal advice. — 54%

2025-10-31 — 133 items — newsletter

• U.S. JOLTS Job Openings (total, SA) for September 2025 will print between 7.2 million and 7.6 million. — 55%
• ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index for October 2025 will print between 49.0 and 52.0. — 56%
• University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (preliminary) for November 2025 will print between 64.0 and 68.0. — 54%
• ADP National Employment Report for October 2025 will show a change between +120,000 and +190,000 jobs. — 55%
• EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report will show at least one weekly build of U.S. commercial crude (ex-SPR) of +5.0 million barrels or more by 2025-11-30. — 44%
• CME Henry Hub natural gas front-month futures will settle at or above $3.50 per MMBtu on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 42%
• The S&P 500 Index (^GSPC) will close down at least 2.0% day-over-day on at least one UTC trading day by 2025-11-30. — 48%
• USD/CNH (CNH=X) will trade at or above 7.3500 on at least one UTC trading day by 2025-11-30. — 46%
• By 2025-11-30, NVIDIA will announce via official press release or SEC filing an equity investment in Poolside AI. — 44%
• U.S. PCE Price Index (headline, YoY, SA) for October 2025 will print between 2.6% and 2.9%. — 57%
• China Caixin Services PMI for October 2025 will print between 51.0 and 52.5. — 55%
• NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for October 2025 will print between 90.0 and 92.5. — 56%
• Freddie Mac PMMS 30-year fixed mortgage rate will print at or above 7.30% in at least one weekly survey by 2025-11-30. — 52%

2025-10-30 — 142 items — newsletter

• Euro area HICP (headline, YoY, flash) for October 2025 will print between 2.1% and 2.5%, per Eurostat. — 55%
• ISM Manufacturing Employment Index for October 2025 will print between 47.0 and 50.0. — 54%
• U.S. Average Hourly Earnings (total private, YoY, SA) for October 2025 will print between 3.7% and 4.1% in the BLS Employment Situation release due 2025-11-07. — 58%
• U.S. CPI (headline, MoM, SA) for October 2025 will print between 0.0% and 0.2% in the BLS release due by mid-November. — 57%
• Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) will close at or below 12.50 on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 38%
• ICE U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) will close at or above 107.00 on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 44%
• ICE Brent crude oil front-month futures will settle at or below $82.00 per barrel on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 47%
• U.S. initial jobless claims (seasonally adjusted, headline) will print at or below 205,000 in at least one weekly Department of Labor report by 2025-11-30. — 40%
• ISM Services New Orders Index for October 2025 will print at or above 53.0. — 55%
• At its early-November 2025 meeting, the Bank of England will leave Bank Rate unchanged. — 60%
• Apple FY2025 Q4 Services revenue year-over-year growth will be between 10% and 14%, per the company’s earnings release. — 57%

2025-10-29 — 139 items — newsletter

• ISM Manufacturing PMI (headline, SA) for October 2025 will print between 49.0 and 50.2 in ISM’s release due by 2025-11-01. — 58%
• U.S. unemployment rate (U-3, SA) for October 2025 will print between 4.1% and 4.3% in the BLS Employment Situation release due 2025-11-07. — 60%
• At its early-November 2025 meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia will leave the cash rate target unchanged at 4.35%. — 62%
• Nikkei 225 (^N225) will close at or above 52,000.0 on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 55%
• By 2025-11-30, North Korea will conduct at least one additional ballistic missile launch publicly acknowledged by South Korea’s JCS or Japan’s MOD. — 57%
• The S&P 500 Index (^GSPC) will close up at least 2.0% day-over-day on at least one UTC trading day by 2025-11-30. — 50%
• USD/JPY (JPY=X) will trade at or above 153.50 on at least one UTC trading day by 2025-11-30. — 48%
• U.S. Advance Retail Sales excluding motor vehicles and parts dealers (MoM, SA) for October 2025 will print between -0.1% and +0.3% in the Census release due mid-November. — 56%
• S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index (YoY, NSA) for September 2025 will print between 1.5% and 3.0%. — 54%
• ICE BofA MOVE Index will close at or above 115.0 on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 46%

2025-10-28 — 134 items — newsletter

• By 2025-11-05, Congress will pass and the President will sign a continuing resolution funding the federal government, ending the current shutdown. — 64%
• ISM Services PMI (headline, SA) for October 2025 will print between 50.0 and 52.0 in ISM’s release due by 2025-11-05. — 57%
• U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (total, CES) for October 2025 will increase by between 130,000 and 210,000 jobs in the BLS Employment Situation report due 2025-11-07. — 55%
• U.S. PCE Price Index excluding food and energy (core, YoY, SA) for September 2025 will print between 2.7% and 2.9% in the BEA release due by 2025-10-31. — 58%
• Euro area HICP excluding energy and food (core, YoY) for October 2025 (flash) will print between 2.5% and 2.8%, per Eurostat. — 56%
• China Caixin Manufacturing PMI for October 2025 will print between 50.3 and 51.2. — 55%
• ICE U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) will close at or below 104.50 on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 52%
• By 2025-11-30, BIS will publish in the Federal Register a temporary general license, enforcement pause, or deadline extension that delays implementation of at least one China-related AI/semiconductor export control introduced in 2024–2025. — 62%
• By 2025-11-30, Qualcomm will announce at least one publicly named partnership with a U.S. hyperscaler (Amazon, Microsoft, Google, or Meta) for its AI200/AI250 accelerators in an official Qualcomm press release or SEC filing. — 42%
• U.S. initial jobless claims (seasonally adjusted, headline) will print at or above 245,000 in at least one weekly Department of Labor report by 2025-11-30. — 47%
• Meta Platforms Q3 2025 total revenue year-over-year growth will be between 16% and 22%, per the company’s earnings release. — 60%

2025-10-27 — 91 items — newsletter

• By 2025-11-07, the U.S. Treasury, White House, or Commerce will announce a finalized agreement resolving TikTok’s U.S. operations (asset sale or restructuring) in an official press release naming TikTok/ByteDance. — 60%
• At the late-October 2025 FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve will leave the target federal funds rate range unchanged. — 64%
• Nikkei 225 (^N225) will close at or above 50,000.0 on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 63%
• China NBS Industrial Profits (YoY, single-month) for October 2025 will print at or above +15.0% in the official release. — 57%
• Insured losses from Hurricane Melissa will be estimated at or above $5.0 billion by at least one catastrophe modeler by 2025-11-30. — 43%
• By 2025-11-30, DHS/ICE will publish a new or updated Privacy Impact Assessment or System of Records Notice explicitly describing AI-enabled social media monitoring. — 52%
• HSBC will report Q3 2025 profit before tax declining by at least 15% year-over-year in its results announcement. — 61%
• Novartis will announce a definitive agreement to acquire Avidity Biosciences by 2025-11-15. — 68%
• Canada will publish in the Canada Gazette, Part II, an order imposing a surtax under the Customs Tariff on specified U.S. goods by 2025-11-30. — 50%
• ICE Endex Dutch TTF front-month natural gas will settle at or above €45.00/MWh on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 45%

2025-10-26 — 82 items — newsletter

• By 2025-11-30, the Government of Canada will announce and implement retaliatory tariffs (surtaxes) on selected U.S. goods in response to new U.S. tariffs. — 54%
• From 2025-10-24 close to 2025-11-30 close, Berkshire Hathaway Class B (BRK-B) will underperform SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) by at least 2.0 percentage points on an adjusted close basis. — 52%
• ISM Manufacturing Prices Index for October 2025 will print at or above 56.0. — 55%
• The U.S. 2-Year Treasury yield (FRED: DGS2) will close at or below 4.40% on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 53%
• NYMEX RBOB gasoline front-month futures (ticker: RB) will settle at or below $2.10 per gallon on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 51%
• By 2025-11-30, Fluor Corporation (FLR) will announce a review of strategic alternatives for its NuScale stake or a formal plan to monetize/divest a material portion of that stake. — 53%
• By 2025-11-30, OFAC will designate at least one China-based entity under a Russia-related sanctions program for supporting Russia’s defense or industrial base. — 56%
• The U.S. 10-Year TIPS breakeven inflation rate (FRED: T10YIE) will close at or below 2.20% on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 49%
• USD/CAD (Yahoo Finance: CAD=X) will trade at or above 1.3800 on at least one UTC trading day by 2025-11-30. — 48%
• From 2025-10-24 close to 2025-11-30 close, iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) will underperform SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) by at least 1.0 percentage point on an adjusted close basis. — 54%

2025-10-25 — 124 items — newsletter

• CME Henry Hub natural gas front-month futures (ticker: NG) will settle at or below $2.50 per MMBtu on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 53%
• Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) will close at or above 25.00 on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 44%
• HFRI Fund Weighted Composite Index preliminary return for October 2025 will be between +0.4% and +2.0%, per HFR’s release. — 57%
• U.S. Total Vehicle Sales (SAAR, FRED: TOTALSA) for October 2025 will print between 15.0 million and 16.2 million. — 56%
• Atlanta Fed Wage Growth Tracker (12-month moving median) for October 2025 will print between 4.5% and 5.3%. — 58%
• China NBS Manufacturing PMI for October 2025 will print between 50.0 and 50.8. — 55%
• AAA U.S. national average regular gasoline price will print at or below $3.40 per gallon on at least one day by 2025-11-30. — 46%
• USD/MXN (Yahoo Finance: MXN=X) will trade at or above 19.00 on at least one UTC trading day by 2025-11-30. — 47%
• IBM Q3 2025 total revenue year-over-year growth will be between +2% and +6%, per the company’s earnings release. — 56%
• Euro area Industrial Production (MoM, SA) for September 2025 will print between -0.6% and +0.4%, per Eurostat. — 55%
• U.S. initial jobless claims 4-week moving average will reach at or above 230,000 in at least one weekly Department of Labor report by 2025-11-30. — 54%

2025-10-24 — 133 items — newsletter

• The U.S. 30-Year Treasury yield (FRED: DGS30) will close at or below 4.60% on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 53%
• U.S. Housing Starts (SAAR) for October 2025 will print between 1.30 million and 1.42 million in the Census release. — 55%
• By 2025-11-30, BIS will publish a new rule (interim/final) tightening U.S. export controls on China related to AI software/model weights or EDA tools, as posted on federalregister.gov. — 51%
• AMD (AMD) Q3 2025 Data Center segment revenue year-over-year growth will be between 25% and 45%, per the company’s earnings release. — 54%
• COMEX Gold front-month futures will settle at or above $2,550 per troy ounce on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30. — 46%
• USD/JPY (Yahoo Finance: JPY=X) will trade at or below 148.00 on at least one UTC trading day by 2025-11-30. — 45%
• ICE Brent crude oil front-month futures will settle at or above $90.00 per barrel on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30. — 49%
• Euro area HCOB Manufacturing PMI (final) for October 2025 will print between 45.0 and 47.0. — 56%
• U.S. PCE Price Index (headline, MoM, SA) for September 2025 will print between 0.1% and 0.3% in the BEA release due by 2025-10-31. — 58%
• From 2025-10-24 close to 2025-11-30 close, Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) will underperform SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) by at least 1.5 percentage points based on adjusted close percentage change. — 54%

2025-10-23 — 141 items — newsletter

• U.S. CPI Core (YoY, CPI-U all items less food and energy) for October 2025 will print between 3.1% and 3.4%. — 57%
• Euro area GDP (QoQ, SA, flash) for Q3 2025 will print between 0.0% and 0.2%. — 55%
• Amazon Q3 2025 AWS net sales year-over-year growth (reported, not FX-adjusted) will be between 15% and 20%. — 56%
• Meta Platforms Q3 2025 Reality Labs operating loss will be at or above $3.0 billion. — 62%
• The U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield (FRED: DGS10) will close at or below 4.10% on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 54%
• EUR/USD (EURUSD=X) will trade at or below 1.0600 on at least one UTC trading day by 2025-11-30. — 49%
• NYMEX WTI crude oil front-month futures (CL) will settle at or above $86.00 per barrel on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30. — 46%
• The S&P 500 Index (^GSPC) will close down at least 1.8% day-over-day on at least one UTC trading day by 2025-11-30. — 50%
• TSMC October 2025 consolidated revenue (NT$) year-over-year growth will be between +8% and +16%. — 55%
• U.S. JOLTS total job openings (SA level) for September 2025 will print between 7.4 million and 8.1 million. — 56%
• ICE Endex Dutch TTF front-month natural gas will settle at or below €34.00/MWh on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30. — 51%

2025-10-22 — 134 items — newsletter

• Alphabet (GOOGL) Q3 2025 total revenue growth (YoY) will be between 10% and 14%, per the company’s earnings release. — 55%
• ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index for October 2025 will print at or below 50.5. — 55%
• Euro area unemployment rate (Eurostat) for September 2025 will print between 6.4% and 6.7%. — 60%
• U.S. CPI Used Cars and Trucks (MoM, SA) for October 2025 will print between -1.2% and +0.3% in the BLS release. — 57%
• United Kingdom CPI (YoY, headline) for October 2025 will print between 2.9% and 3.5%. — 56%
• ICE BofA MOVE Index will close at or below 95.0 on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 52%
• ICE Endex Dutch TTF front-month natural gas will settle at or below €38.00/MWh on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30. — 49%
• ICE U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) will close at or above 107.00 on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 47%
• U.S. crude oil field production (weekly, EIA) will print at or above 13.40 million barrels per day in at least one Weekly Petroleum Status Report by 2025-11-30. — 55%
• From 2025-10-22 close to 2025-11-30 close, Tesla (TSLA) will underperform Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) by at least 5.0 percentage points based on adjusted close percentage change. — 53%
• By 2025-11-30, OFAC will designate at least one entity for supporting Iranian UAV procurement or production, as evidenced by a Treasury press release or SDN listing explicitly citing UAV-related activity. — 55%

2025-10-21 — 122 items — newsletter

• ISM Manufacturing PMI (headline, SA) for October 2025 will print between 49.0 and 51.5 in ISM’s release due by 2025-11-01. — 56%
• Euro area HCOB Services PMI (final) for October 2025 will print between 49.0 and 51.0. — 54%
• China Industrial Production (YoY) for October 2025 will print between 4.8% and 6.2% in the NBS release. — 55%
• U.S. Unemployment rate (U-3, SA) for October 2025 will print between 4.1% and 4.3% in the BLS release. — 55%
• Nikkei 225 (ticker: ^N225) will close at or above 42,000.0 on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 54%
• USD/CNH (Yahoo Finance: CNH=X) will trade at or above 7.50 on at least one UTC trading day by 2025-11-30. — 53%
• NYMEX WTI crude oil front-month futures (CL) will settle at or below $74.00 per barrel on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30. — 48%
• LME Copper 3-month will settle at or above $9,500 per metric ton on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30. — 50%
• The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) will close at or below 13.00 on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 46%
• Ethereum (ETH-USD) will trade at or above $3,800 on at least one UTC day by 2025-11-30. — 47%
• By 2025-11-30, NASA will publish a solicitation (draft RFP or final) on SAM.gov to reopen competition for an Artemis lunar Human Landing System provider. — 58%
• Lynas Rare Earths (ASX: LYC) will close at or above A$9.50 on at least one ASX trading day by 2025-11-30 (local exchange time). — 52%

2025-10-20 — 89 items — newsletter

• U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (change in total nonfarm employment, SA) for October 2025 will print between +100,000 and +220,000. — 55%
• ISM Services Prices Index for October 2025 will print at or above 56.0. — 55%
• Seasonally adjusted insured unemployment (continuing claims) will print at or above 1.90 million in at least one weekly report by 2025-11-30. — 54%
• Euro area HICP headline (YoY, flash) for October 2025 will print between 2.2% and 2.8%. — 57%
• China imports (USD, YoY) for October 2025 will print between -2% and +6% in the Customs release. — 55%
• U.S. Existing Home Sales (SAAR) for September 2025 will print between 3.8 million and 4.2 million in the NAR release. — 56%
• ICE U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) will close at or below 103.00 on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 51%
• ICE Brent crude oil front-month futures will settle at or below $80.00 per barrel on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30. — 49%
• U.S. working natural gas in storage will reach at or above 3.90 trillion cubic feet in at least one EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report by 2025-11-30. — 54%
• U.S. Retail Sales Control Group (MoM, SA) for October 2025 will print between -0.2% and +0.3% in the Census release. — 55%
• The U.S. 10-Year TIPS breakeven inflation rate (FRED: T10YIE) will close at or above 2.50% on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 51%
• Microsoft (MSFT) Q1 FY2026 Azure and other cloud services revenue growth (YoY, constant currency) will be between 25% and 32%, per the company’s earnings disclosure. — 56%
• Apple (AAPL) fiscal Q4 2025 Services net sales will grow between 12% and 18% year-over-year, per the company’s earnings release. — 57%

2025-10-19 — 83 items — newsletter

• ISM Services PMI (headline, SA) for October 2025 will print between 51.0 and 53.5 in ISM’s release. — 56%
• U.S. CPI Headline (MoM, SA) for October 2025 will print between 0.0% and 0.3% in the BLS release. — 56%
• U.S. JOLTS hires rate for September 2025 will print between 3.4% and 3.7% in the BLS release. — 58%
• Japan Tokyo CPI excluding fresh food (YoY) for October 2025 will print between 2.0% and 2.8%. — 60%
• China exports (USD, YoY) for October 2025 will print between -4% and +4% in the Customs release. — 55%
• AAA U.S. national average diesel price will print at or below $3.90 per gallon on at least one daily reading. — 48%
• ICE BofA MOVE Index will close at or above 115.0 on at least one trading day (UTC). — 50%
• From 2025-10-18 close to 2025-11-30 close, Zions Bancorporation (ZION) will underperform SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) by at least 6.0 percentage points based on adjusted close percentage change. — 55%
• Walmart (WMT) Q3 FY2026 U.S. comparable sales ex-fuel will print between 3.0% and 5.0%, per the company’s earnings release. — 56%
• English Wikipedia (en.wikipedia.org) total pageviews (all-access) for October 2025 will be at least 8% lower than October 2024, per Wikimedia REST API. — 54%
• EUR/JPY (EURJPY=X) will trade at or above 164.00 on at least one UTC trading day. — 47%
• Aggregate EU natural gas storage (AGSI+, EU total) will be at or above 95.0% of capacity on at least one day between 2025-10-20 and 2025-11-30. — 60%

2025-10-18 — 129 items — newsletter

• U.S. Real GDP (SAAR, QoQ) for Q3 2025 will print between 1.8% and 3.0% in the BEA advance estimate. — 58%
• Seasonally adjusted U.S. initial jobless claims (weekly level) will print at or above 240,000 in at least one report. — 52%
• The S&P 500 Index (^GSPC) will close up at least 2.0% day-over-day on at least one UTC trading day. — 45%
• EUR/USD (EURUSD=X) will trade at or above 1.1200 on at least one UTC trading day. — 43%
• Bitcoin (BTC-USD) will trade at or above $75,000 on at least one UTC day. — 47%
• The Brent–WTI front-month settlement spread will reach at or below $3.00 per barrel on at least one trading day. — 48%
• ICE Endex Dutch TTF front-month natural gas will settle at or above €45.00/MWh on at least one trading day. — 46%
• U.S. CPI Owners’ Equivalent Rent (OER, MoM, SA) for October 2025 will be at or below 0.35% in the BLS release. — 52%
• Euro area HICP excluding energy and food (YoY, flash) for October 2025 will print between 2.6% and 3.1%. — 56%
• NVIDIA (NVDA) Q3 FY2026 Data Center segment revenue year-over-year growth will be between 35% and 60%, per the company’s earnings release. — 54%
• By 2025-11-30, OFAC will announce at least one new sanctions designation targeting a Venezuelan state-owned enterprise, ministry, or senior official. — 52%
• The U.S. 5-Year TIPS breakeven inflation rate (FRED: T5YIE) will close at or below 2.10% on at least one trading day (UTC). — 53%

2025-10-17 — 151 items — newsletter

• USD/JPY (Yahoo Finance: JPY=X) will trade at or above 152.50 on at least one UTC trading day by 2025-11-30. — 48%
• The Cboe Volatility Index (ticker: ^VIX) will close at or above 22.00 on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 51%
• From 2025-10-17 close to 2025-11-30 close, SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) will underperform SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) by at least 3.5 percentage points based on adjusted close percentage change. — 56%
• The Drewry World Container Index (Composite) weekly reading published on or before 2025-11-30 will be at least 25% higher than its 2025-09-05 Composite level. — 54%
• U.S. total commercial crude oil inventories (excluding SPR) will decline by at least 8.0 million barrels week-over-week in at least one EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report published by 2025-11-15. — 52%
• ISM Manufacturing Prices Index for October 2025 will print at or above 56.0 in ISM’s release due by 2025-11-01. — 55%
• University of Michigan 5–10 year inflation expectations (final) for October 2025 will print between 2.8% and 3.1%. — 58%
• U.S. Core PCE Price Index (YoY, SA) for September 2025 will print between 2.6% and 2.8% in the BEA release due by 2025-10-31. — 58%
• By 2025-11-30, OFAC will sanction at least two entities for facilitating Russia–North Korea arms transfers, as evidenced by new SDN listings or press releases explicitly citing such activity. — 52%
• NYMEX Henry Hub natural gas front-month futures (NG) will settle at or above $3.60 per MMBtu on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30. — 52%
• The U.S. 2-Year Treasury yield (FRED: DGS2) will close at or below 4.30% on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 54%
• The U.S. Senate will pass a continuing resolution extending federal funding through at least 2025-12-15 by 2025-10-31. — 55%

2025-10-16 — 135 items — newsletter

• U.S. PCE Core (MoM, SA) for September 2025 will print between 0.20% and 0.30% in the BEA release due by 2025-10-31. — 57%
• University of Michigan 1-year inflation expectations (final) for October 2025 will print between 3.0% and 3.6%. — 58%
• The PBOC will keep the 1-year Loan Prime Rate unchanged at 3.35% at the fixing on or before 2025-10-21. — 62%
• Euro area HCOB Manufacturing PMI (final) for October 2025 will print between 47.0 and 49.0. — 56%
• The Drewry World Container Index Shanghai–Los Angeles weekly spot rate published on or before 2025-11-30 will be at least 20% higher than its 2025-09-05 reading. — 55%
• ICE BofA U.S. High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread (FRED: BAMLH0A0HYM2) will close at or above 4.50% on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 52%
• Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey 30-year fixed rate will print at or below 6.50% in at least one weekly release by 2025-11-30. — 53%
• COMEX Gold futures (GC, most-active) will settle at or above $2,650 per troy ounce on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30. — 50%
• USD/JPY (Yahoo Finance: JPY=X) will trade at or below 148.50 on at least one UTC trading day by 2025-11-30. — 49%
• From 2025-10-16 close to 2025-11-30 close, Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE) will outperform SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) by at least 2.5 percentage points based on adjusted close percentage change. — 54%
• China PPI (headline, YoY) for October 2025 will print between -2.5% and -1.0% in the National Bureau of Statistics release by 2025-11-10. — 57%
• The Brent–WTI front-month settlement spread will reach at or above $7.00 per barrel on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30. — 52%

2025-10-15 — 131 items — newsletter

• The U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield (FRED: DGS10) will close at or below 4.10% on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 54%
• U.S. PPI Final Demand (MoM, SA) for October 2025 will print between 0.0% and 0.3% in the BLS release due by 2025-11-15. — 58%
• Walmart (WMT) Q3 FY2026 U.S. eCommerce net sales growth year-over-year will be between 18% and 26%, per the company’s earnings release published by 2025-11-30. — 57%
• By 2025-11-30, China will announce new export licensing restrictions covering at least one rare-earth element, permanent magnet, or other defense-critical mineral category. — 47%
• AAA U.S. national average regular gasoline price will print at or below $3.20 per gallon on at least one daily reading by 2025-11-30. — 50%
• From 2025-10-15 close to 2025-11-30 close, Consumer Staples (XLP) will underperform Consumer Discretionary (XLY) by at least 2.5 percentage points based on adjusted close percentage change. — 54%
• U.S. JOLTS quits rate for September 2025 will print between 2.1% and 2.5% in the BLS release due by 2025-11-06. — 60%
• The U.S. 10Y–2Y Treasury yield spread (FRED: T10Y2Y) will close at or above -0.05 percentage points on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 47%
• ICE Brent crude oil front-month futures will settle at or above $88.00 per barrel on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30. — 52%
• The S&P 500 Index (ticker: ^GSPC) will close down at least 2.0% day-over-day on at least one UTC trading day by 2025-11-30. — 49%

2025-10-14 — 117 items — newsletter

• U.S. JOLTS job openings (level, seasonally adjusted) for September 2025 will print between 7.3 million and 8.3 million in the BLS release due by 2025-11-06. — 57%
• Alphabet (GOOGL) Q3 2025 Google Cloud revenue year-over-year growth will be between 17% and 24%, per the company’s earnings release published by 2025-10-30. — 55%
• Amazon (AMZN) Q3 2025 AWS revenue year-over-year growth will be between 16% and 22%, per the company’s earnings release published by 2025-10-31. — 56%
• Meta Platforms (META) Q3 2025 Reality Labs operating loss will be between $3.0B and $4.5B, per the company’s earnings release by 2025-10-31. — 60%
• Euro area Industrial Production (MoM, SA) for September 2025 will print between -0.8% and +0.4% in Eurostat’s release due by 2025-11-13. — 55%
• At the meeting concluding 2025-11-06, the Bank of England will leave Bank Rate unchanged at 5.25%. — 62%
• The PBOC will set the 1-year MLF rate unchanged at 2.50% at its next fixing on or before 2025-11-15. — 58%
• EIA-reported crude oil stocks at Cushing, OK will decrease by at least 2.5 million barrels week-over-week in at least one Weekly Petroleum Status Report published by 2025-11-15. — 52%
• The Drewry World Container Index Shanghai–Rotterdam weekly spot rate published on or before 2025-11-30 will be at least 20% higher than its 2025-09-05 reading. — 55%
• AAA U.S. national average regular gasoline price will print at or below $3.25 per gallon on at least one daily reading by 2025-11-30. — 53%
• China CPI (headline, YoY) for October 2025 will print between -0.2% and +0.8% in the National Bureau of Statistics release by 2025-11-10. — 57%
• NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for October 2025 will print between 90.0 and 93.0 in the release due by 2025-11-12. — 54%
• ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index for October 2025 will print between 47.0 and 51.0 in ISM’s release due by 2025-11-01. — 55%
• By 2025-11-30, Taiwan’s MOD will report at least one 24-hour period with 70 or more PRC military aircraft detected around Taiwan. — 46%

2025-10-13 — 93 items — newsletter

• At the meeting concluding 2025-11-05, the FOMC will leave the federal funds target range unchanged at 5.25%–5.50%. — 62%
• U.S. CPI Core (MoM, SA) for October 2025 will print between 0.20% and 0.30% in the BLS release due by 2025-11-15. — 56%
• U.S. Retail Sales Control Group (MoM, SA) for September 2025 will print between -0.2% and +0.3% in the Census release due by 2025-10-16. — 55%
• Euro area Composite PMI (final) for October 2025 will print between 49.5 and 51.5 in the HCOB/S&P Global release due by 2025-11-06. — 54%
• U.S. Housing Starts (SAAR) for September 2025 will print between 1.33 million and 1.45 million in the Census/HUD release due by 2025-10-17. — 55%
• China Total Social Financing (flow) for September 2025 will print between CNY 3.0 trillion and CNY 4.6 trillion in the PBOC release by 2025-10-15. — 56%
• Seasonally adjusted U.S. initial jobless claims 4-week moving average will reach at or above 225,000 in at least one weekly Department of Labor report published by 2025-11-15. — 54%
• The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) will close at or below 14.00 on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 53%
• USD/CNH (CNH=X) will trade at or below 7.20 on at least one UTC trading day by 2025-11-30. — 49%
• From 2025-10-13 close to 2025-11-30 close, Financials (XLF) will outperform Technology (XLK) by at least 2.5 percentage points based on adjusted close percentage change. — 54%
• NYMEX WTI crude oil front-month futures (CL) will settle at or below $74.00 per barrel on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30. — 50%
• ICE Endex Dutch TTF front-month natural gas will settle at or below €33/MWh on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30. — 50%

2025-10-12 — 90 items — newsletter

• ISM Manufacturing PMI (headline) for October 2025 will print between 49.0 and 51.0 in ISM’s release due by 2025-11-01. — 55%
• U.S. nonfarm payrolls (change, total) for October 2025 will be between +110,000 and +230,000 in the BLS Employment Situation release by 2025-11-08. — 55%
• U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for October 2025 will print between 4.1% and 4.4% in the BLS release by 2025-11-08. — 54%
• U.S. Advance Retail Sales (MoM, SA) for September 2025 will print between -0.2% and +0.3% in the Census release due by 2025-10-16. — 54%
• S&P Global U.S. Composite PMI (final) for October 2025 will print between 51.0 and 53.5 in the release due by 2025-11-05. — 54%
• Euro area unemployment rate for September 2025 will print between 6.3% and 6.6% in Eurostat’s release due by 2025-10-31. — 56%
• From 2025-10-12 close to 2025-11-30 close, iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) will underperform SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) by at least 2.5 percentage points based on adjusted close percentage change. — 56%
• ICE BofA U.S. Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread (FRED: BAMLCC0A0CM) will close at or above 1.20% on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 53%
• LME Copper 3-month official settlement price will reach at or above $9,800 per metric ton on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30. — 52%
• EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage (Lower 48 total working gas) will print at or above 3,850 Bcf in at least one Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report published by 2025-11-15. — 53%
• Apple (AAPL) fiscal Q4 2025 Services revenue will be between $24.5B and $26.0B, per the company’s earnings release published by 2025-11-10. — 55%

2025-10-11 — 134 items — newsletter

• U.S. CPI (headline, YoY, NSA) for October 2025 will print between 3.1% and 3.6% in the BLS release due by 2025-11-15. — 54%
• China exports (YoY, USD terms) for October 2025 will print between -5% and +3% in the General Administration of Customs release by 2025-11-10. — 55%
• Euro area HICP (headline, YoY, flash) for November 2025 will print between 2.2% and 2.7% in Eurostat’s release due by 2025-11-29. — 54%
• From 2025-10-11 close to 2025-11-30 close, Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) will outperform SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) by at least 1.5 percentage points based on adjusted close percentage change. — 56%
• From 2025-10-11 close to 2025-11-30 close, iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) will underperform SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) by at least 3.0 percentage points based on adjusted close percentage change. — 57%
• The ETH/BTC exchange rate will reach 0.060 or higher on at least one UTC day by 2025-11-30. — 52%
• The U.S. 30-Year Treasury yield (FRED: DGS30) will close at or above 4.80% on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 53%
• EIA-reported crude oil stocks at Cushing, OK will reach at or above 35.0 million barrels in at least one Weekly Petroleum Status Report published by 2025-11-15. — 54%
• By 2025-11-30, the UK CMA will publish a formal consultation on proposed conduct requirements for Google Search under its Special Market Status designation. — 55%
• By 2025-11-30, China will file a request for WTO consultations challenging new U.S. tariff or export-control measures announced in October 2025. — 51%

2025-10-10 — 138 items — newsletter

• By 2025-11-30, the U.S. Commerce Department (BIS) will add at least three China-based entities to the Entity List citing semiconductor export-control evasion or illicit acquisition of restricted AI chips. — 58%
• USD/CNH (Yahoo Finance: CNH=X) will trade at or above 7.40 on at least one UTC trading day by 2025-11-30. — 55%
• EUR/USD (Yahoo Finance: EURUSD=X) will trade at or below 1.0300 on at least one UTC trading day by 2025-11-30. — 52%
• NYMEX WTI crude oil front-month futures (CL) will settle at or above $92.00 per barrel on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30. — 52%
• ICE Endex Dutch TTF front-month natural gas will settle at or above €45/MWh on at least one trading day by 2025-11-15. — 55%
• U.S. distillate fuel oil inventories will decline by at least 4.0 million barrels week-over-week in at least one EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report published by 2025-10-31. — 53%
• ISM Services PMI (headline) for October 2025 will print between 50.0 and 53.0 in ISM’s release due by 2025-11-05. — 56%
• University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (final) for October 2025 will print between 66.0 and 70.0 in the release due 2025-10-25. — 55%
• OpenAI’s Sora app (U.S. iOS) will rank in the Top 5 of the App Store Top Free chart on at least 5 distinct UTC days between 2025-10-10 and 2025-10-31. — 57%
• By 2025-11-30, Paramount Global and Warner Bros. Discovery will not announce a signed definitive merger or acquisition agreement, as evidenced by no joint press release and no definitive agreement filing on SEC EDGAR. — 58%

2025-10-09 — 137 items — newsletter

• From 2025-10-09 close to 2025-11-30 close, Invesco QQQ (QQQ) will underperform SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA) by at least 3.0 percentage points based on percentage change in adjusted close prices. — 55%
• The U.S. 10-Year Treasury Inflation-Indexed Security yield (FRED: DFII10) will close at or above 2.10% on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 53%
• Seasonally adjusted U.S. initial jobless claims will print at or above 235,000 in at least one weekly Department of Labor Unemployment Insurance report published by 2025-11-15. — 54%
• Henry Hub Natural Gas front-month futures (NYMEX: NG) will settle at or below $2.60 per MMBtu on at least one trading day by 2025-11-15. — 52%
• The U.S. Dollar Index (ICE: DXY) will close at or above 108.00 on at least one UTC day by 2025-11-30. — 52%
• Microsoft (MSFT) will report Azure (including Azure AI) constant-currency revenue growth between 23% and 28% YoY for Q1 FY2026 in its earnings release by 2025-10-31. — 56%
• By 2025-11-30, Taiwan’s MOD will report at least one 24-hour period with 60 or more PRC military aircraft detected around Taiwan. — 58%
• The 2025 Nobel Peace Prize laureate(s) announced on 2025-10-10 will include at least one whose primary work concerns climate change mitigation, adaptation, or environmental protection. — 45%
• The U.S. 2-Year Treasury yield (FRED: DGS2) will close at or above 4.80% on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 52%
• U.S. motor gasoline product supplied (EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report) will print at or below 8.4 million barrels per day in at least one weekly report published by 2025-10-31. — 55%
• Euro area core HICP (YoY, flash) for October 2025 will print between 2.4% and 2.8% in Eurostat’s release due by 2025-10-31. — 55%
• AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) will close at or above $12.00 on at least one trading day by 2025-11-15 (UTC). — 54%
• By 2025-11-30, at least two U.S.-listed companies will publicly announce intent to pursue a primary or dual listing on the Texas Stock Exchange (TXSE) via press release or SEC filing. — 47%

2025-10-08 — 140 items — newsletter

• COMEX Gold (GC) front-month futures will settle at or below $3,500 per troy ounce on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30. — 58%
• The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) will close at or above 24.00 on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 54%
• USD/JPY (Yahoo Finance: JPY=X) will trade at or below 150.00 on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 51%
• U.S. CPI (headline, YoY, NSA) for September 2025 will print between 3.0% and 3.3% in the BLS release on 2025-10-10. — 57%
• The ICE BofA MOVE Index (FRED: MOVE) will close at or above 110.0 on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 53%
• By 2025-11-30, OFAC will add at least two DPRK-related entries to the SDN List for activity tied to cryptocurrency theft, mixing, exchange, or laundering. — 58%
• Microsoft (MSFT) Q1 FY2026 Intelligent Cloud segment revenue will be between $30.0B and $31.5B, per the company’s earnings release published by 2025-10-31. — 56%
• NVIDIA (NVDA) Q3 FY2026 non-GAAP gross margin will be between 74.0% and 77.0%, per the company’s earnings release published by 2025-11-30. — 57%
• From 2025-10-08 close to 2025-11-30 close, iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) will outperform SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) by at least 2.0 percentage points based on adjusted close percentage change. — 53%
• ICE Brent crude oil front-month futures will settle at or below $80.00 per barrel on at least one trading day by 2025-11-15. — 51%

2025-10-07 — 143 items — newsletter

• U.S. 2-Year Treasury yield (FRED: DGS2) will close at or below 4.10% on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 52%
• ICE BofA U.S. High Yield OAS (FRED: BAMLH0A0HYM2) will close at or above 4.00% on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 54%
• Henry Hub Natural Gas front-month futures (NYMEX: NG) will settle at or above $3.40 per MMBtu on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30. — 55%
• Ethereum (ETH-USD) will close at or above $4,000 on at least one UTC day by 2025-11-30. — 49%
• U.S. Core PCE price index (MoM, SA) for September 2025 will print between 0.20% and 0.30% in the BEA release on 2025-10-31. — 58%
• Euro area HICP (headline, YoY, flash) for October 2025 will print between 2.2% and 2.7% in Eurostat’s release due by 2025-10-31. — 55%
• EIA-reported U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (ex-SPR) will increase by at least +6.0 million barrels in a single week in at least one Weekly Petroleum Status Report published by 2025-10-31. — 53%
• By 2025-11-30, Google will announce a reduction of the standard U.S. Google Play in-app purchase service fee to 20% or lower. — 45%
• The ChatGPT iOS app (U.S.) will rank in the Top 5 of the App Store Top Free Apps on at least 7 distinct days between 2025-10-07 and 2025-10-31 (UTC). — 57%
• By 2025-10-31, mediators will announce a jointly endorsed ceasefire framework between Israel and Hamas emerging from Cairo talks, acknowledged by both parties and Egypt. — 46%
• Freddie Mac PMMS 30-year fixed-rate mortgage will print at or below 6.40% in at least one weekly release by 2025-11-30. — 52%
• The Drewry World Container Index Shanghai–New York weekly spot rate published on or before 2025-11-30 will be at least 25% higher than its 2025-09-05 reading. — 54%

2025-10-06 — 82 items — newsletter

• Bitcoin (BTC-USD) will close at or above $130,000 on at least one UTC day by 2025-10-31. — 55%
• COMEX Gold (GC) front-month futures will settle at or above $2,800 per troy ounce on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30. — 52%
• ICE Brent crude oil front-month futures will settle at or above $94.00 per barrel on at least one trading day by 2025-10-31. — 54%
• USD/JPY (Yahoo Finance: JPY=X) will trade at or above 165.00 on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 53%
• NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for September 2025 will print between 89.0 and 92.0 in the release due 2025-10-08. — 62%
• University of Michigan 5–10 year inflation expectations (final) for October 2025 will print between 2.8% and 3.0% in the release due 2025-10-25. — 56%
• China CPI (headline, YoY) for September 2025 will print between 0.4% and 0.9% in the NBS release by 2025-10-14. — 55%
• The U.S. 10Y–2Y Treasury yield spread (FRED: DGS10 minus DGS2) will close at or above 0.00 percentage points on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 50%
• From 2025-10-06 close to 2025-11-30 close, Nikkei 225 (^N225) will outperform KOSPI (^KS11) by at least 3.0 percentage points based on percentage change in adjusted close prices. — 54%
• U.S. field production of crude oil (monthly, EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly) for September 2025 will be at or above 13.5 million barrels per day in the report published by 2025-11-30. — 56%
• The U.S. AAA national average price for regular gasoline will print at or below $3.30 per gallon on at least one day by 2025-11-15. — 52%
• The ICE BofA MOVE Index (FRED: MOVE) will close at or below 90.0 on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 52%

2025-10-05 — 87 items — newsletter

• U.S. CPI (headline, MoM, seasonally adjusted) for September 2025 will print between 0.1% and 0.3% in the BLS release on 2025-10-10. — 57%
• U.S. core CPI (all items less food and energy, MoM, SA) for September 2025 will print between 0.2% and 0.3% in the BLS release on 2025-10-10. — 57%
• Seasonally adjusted U.S. continuing jobless claims will print at or above 1.90 million in at least one weekly DOL Unemployment Insurance report published by 2025-11-15. — 55%
• The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) will close at or below 12.00 on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 50%
• The U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield (FRED: DGS10) will close at or above 4.60% on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 54%
• COMEX Gold (GC) front-month futures will settle at or above $2,700 per troy ounce on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30. — 52%
• USD/JPY (Yahoo Finance: JPY=X) will trade at or above 163.00 on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 53%
• U.S. refiner operable utilization rate will print at or below 87.0% in at least one EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report published by 2025-10-31. — 59%
• Apple (AAPL) fiscal Q4 2025 total net sales will be between $85.0B and $91.0B, per the company’s earnings release published by 2025-11-10. — 55%
• NVIDIA (NVDA) Q3 FY2026 Data Center segment revenue will be between $27.0B and $30.0B, per the company’s earnings release or Form 10-Q published by 2025-11-30. — 54%
• China exports (YoY, USD terms) for September 2025 will print between -2% and +4% in the General Administration of Customs release by 2025-10-13. — 56%
• University of Michigan 1-year inflation expectations (final) for October 2025 will print between 3.0% and 3.5% in the release due 2025-10-25. — 56%

2025-10-04 — 131 items — newsletter

• Bitcoin (BTC-USD) will close at or above $80,000 on at least one UTC day by 2025-10-31. — 48%
• The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) will close at or above 20.00 on at least one trading day by 2025-10-31 (UTC). — 56%
• AAA California average regular gasoline price will print at or above $5.80 per gallon on at least one day by 2025-10-20. — 55%
• By 2025-10-31, OFAC will announce an Iran-related sanctions action adding at least 10 new entries to the SDN List. — 54%
• From 2025-10-03 close to 2025-10-31 close, Invesco QQQ (QQQ) will outperform SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) by at least 2.0 percentage points based on adjusted close percentage change. — 54%
• ISM Manufacturing PMI (headline) for October 2025 will print between 48.0 and 50.5 in ISM’s release due by 2025-11-04. — 56%
• The U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield (FRED: DGS10) will close at or below 3.95% on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 52%
• Microsoft (MSFT) Q1 FY2026 total revenue will be between $60.0B and $63.5B, per the company’s earnings release published by 2025-10-31. — 55%
• NYMEX RBOB gasoline front-month futures (RB) will settle at or above $2.60 per gallon on at least one trading day by 2025-10-31. — 53%
• From 2025-10-03 close to 2025-11-30 close, AMD (AMD) will outperform NVIDIA (NVDA) by at least 5.0 percentage points based on percentage change in adjusted close prices. — 51%
• U.S. Retail Sales ‘control group’ (advance, MoM, SA) for October 2025 will print between -0.3% and +0.2% in the Census release due 2025-11-15. — 55%

2025-10-03 — 137 items — newsletter

• If a U.S. federal government shutdown began on 2025-10-01, it will end by 2025-10-14 (inclusive) via enactment of a continuing resolution or full-year appropriations. — 60%
• By 2025-10-31, at least three U.S. state attorneys general will file lawsuits seeking to block distribution or use of newly approved generic mifepristone. — 58%
• By 2025-10-10, Mexico’s Secretariat of Foreign Affairs (SRE) will issue a formal public statement or diplomatic note rejecting U.S. ‘war on cartels’ framing or potential cross-border military actions. — 60%
• From 2025-10-02 close to 2025-10-31 close, iShares Global Clean Energy ETF (ICLN) will underperform SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) by at least 4.0 percentage points based on percentage change in adjusted close prices. — 54%
• Intel (INTC) will close at or above $50.00 on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 55%
• Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) will underperform the PHLX Semiconductor Index (^SOX) by at least 3.0 percentage points from 2025-10-02 close to 2025-11-30 close. — 53%
• MP Materials (MP) will close at or above $20.00 on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 52%
• NYMEX RBOB gasoline front-month futures (RB) will settle at or below $2.15 per gallon on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30. — 54%
• USD/MXN (Yahoo Finance: MXN=X) will trade at or above 19.20 on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 52%

2025-10-02 — 141 items — newsletter

• U.S. unemployment rate (U-3, seasonally adjusted) for September 2025 will print between 4.0% and 4.2% in the BLS Employment Situation on 2025-10-03. — 58%
• U.S. labor force participation rate (seasonally adjusted) for September 2025 will print between 62.6% and 62.9% in the BLS Employment Situation on 2025-10-03. — 57%
• U.S. Average Weekly Hours of All Employees (Total Private, seasonally adjusted) for September 2025 will print between 34.3 and 34.4 hours in the BLS Employment Situation on 2025-10-03. — 56%
• U.S. U-6 underemployment rate (seasonally adjusted) for September 2025 will print between 7.6% and 8.2% in the BLS Employment Situation on 2025-10-03. — 57%
• ISM Services Prices Index for September 2025 will print between 56.0 and 61.0 in ISM’s report released on 2025-10-03. — 55%
• NYMEX WTI crude oil front-month futures (CL) will settle at or above $90.00 per barrel on at least one trading day by 2025-10-31. — 56%
• U.S. On-Highway Diesel Fuel Price (EIA, U.S. average) will print at or below $3.90 per gallon in at least one weekly update published by 2025-11-15. — 48%
• U.S. field production of crude oil (monthly, EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly) for August 2025 will be at or above 13.4 million barrels per day in the report published by 2025-10-31. — 60%
• By 2025-11-30, Intel and AMD will announce that AMD will use Intel Foundry Services to manufacture at least one product line, via a joint press release or concurrent statements on both companies’ investor relations sites. — 44%
• The U.S. 10-Year Treasury Inflation-Indexed Security yield (FRED: DFII10) will close at or below 1.80% on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 54%

2025-10-01 — 137 items — newsletter

• At its November 2025 FOMC meeting (statement dated 2025-11-05), the Federal Reserve will leave the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged from its prior level. — 62%
• ISM Services PMI (headline) for September 2025 will print between 51.0 and 53.5 in ISM’s release on 2025-10-03. — 56%
• U.S. Producer Price Index (Final Demand, MoM, SA) for September 2025 will print between 0.1% and 0.4% in the BLS release on 2025-10-09. — 57%
• U.S. Core PCE price index (YoY, SA) for September 2025 will print between 2.6% and 2.9% in the BEA release on 2025-10-31. — 57%
• EIA-reported 4-week average U.S. product supplied of finished motor gasoline will print at or below 8.60 million barrels per day in at least one Weekly Petroleum Status Report released by 2025-10-31. — 55%
• The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) will close at or below 13.00 on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 52%
• OpenAI’s Sora app will rank in the top 3 of the U.S. iOS App Store Top Free Apps at least once by 2025-11-15. — 58%
• NVIDIA (NVDA) market capitalization will reach or exceed $5.0 trillion on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30. — 55%
• By 2025-10-31, the U.S. Treasury’s OFAC will announce a Russia-related sanctions action that adds at least 20 new entries to the SDN List. — 60%
• Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) 30-year fixed-rate mortgage will print at or above 6.75% in at least one weekly release by 2025-10-31. — 53%
• Seasonally adjusted U.S. initial jobless claims will print at or above 230,000 in at least one weekly DOL report released by 2025-10-31. — 56%

2025-09-30 — 141 items — newsletter

• ISM Manufacturing PMI (headline) for September 2025 will print between 47.5 and 49.5 in the ISM release on 2025-10-01. — 56%
• ADP National Employment Report change for September 2025 will be between 120,000 and 190,000 in the release on 2025-10-01. — 55%
• U.S. Average Hourly Earnings (total private, seasonally adjusted) month-over-month for September 2025 will print between 0.20% and 0.40% in the BLS Employment Situation on 2025-10-03. — 57%
• Euro area HICP (headline, YoY, flash) for September 2025 will print between 2.3% and 2.7% in Eurostat’s release on 2025-10-02. — 56%
• The U.S. AAA national average price for regular gasoline will print at or below $3.40 per gallon on at least one day by 2025-10-31. — 54%
• By 2025-10-15, OPEC+ will issue an official statement maintaining current production targets with no net increase for November–December 2025. — 60%
• NVIDIA (NVDA) Q3 FY2026 revenue will be between $32.0B and $35.0B, per the company’s earnings release or Form 10-Q published by 2025-11-30. — 55%
• TSMC (2330.TW) consolidated revenue year-over-year change for September 2025 will be between +20% and +30% in the company’s monthly revenue report published by 2025-10-10. — 56%
• The Drewry World Container Index Shanghai–New York weekly spot rate published on or before 2025-10-31 will be at least 15% higher than its 2025-09-05 reading. — 56%
• EUR/JPY (Yahoo Finance: EURJPY=X) will trade at or above 165.00 on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 53%

2025-09-29 — 103 items — newsletter

• No U.S. federal government shutdown will begin at 00:01 EDT on 2025-10-01 because a continuing resolution or full-year appropriations will be enacted into law by that time. — 58%
• Tesla (TSLA) Q3 2025 global deliveries will be between 415,000 and 460,000 vehicles in the company’s press release published by 2025-10-04. — 55%
• UK CPI (headline, YoY) for September 2025 will print between 2.8% and 3.3% in the ONS release due 2025-10-16. — 56%
• U.S. CPI shelter index (month-over-month, seasonally adjusted) for September 2025 will print between 0.30% and 0.45% in the BLS CPI release on 2025-10-10. — 57%
• U.S. working natural gas in storage will reach at or above 3.80 trillion cubic feet in at least one EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report published by 2025-11-15. — 60%
• LME 3-month Copper official settlement price will reach at or above $9,500 per metric ton on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30. — 53%
• Bitcoin (BTC-USD) will close at or above $75,000 on at least one UTC day by 2025-11-30. — 49%
• The U.S. 30Y–5Y Treasury yield spread (FRED: DGS30 minus DGS5) will close at or above 0.60 percentage points on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 55%
• The Drewry World Container Index Shanghai–Los Angeles weekly spot rate published on or before 2025-10-31 will be at least 15% higher than its 2025-09-05 reading. — 57%
• Alphabet (GOOGL) Q3 2025 revenue will be between $83.0B and $87.0B, per the company’s earnings release published by 2025-10-31. — 55%

2025-09-28 — 88 items — newsletter

• ICE Brent crude oil front-month futures will settle at or above $92.00 per barrel on at least one trading day by 2025-10-31. — 55%
• EUR/USD will trade at or below 1.0400 on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 52%
• U.S. nonfarm payrolls (change, seasonally adjusted) for September 2025 will be between 120,000 and 220,000 in the BLS Employment Situation on 2025-10-03. — 55%
• U.S. Retail Sales 'control group' (advance) month-over-month for September 2025 will print between -0.2% and +0.4% in the Census release on 2025-10-16. — 56%
• University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (final) for October 2025 will print between 65.0 and 74.0 in the release due 2025-10-25. — 56%
• U.S. 2-Year Treasury yield (FRED: DGS2) will close at or above 4.90% on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 54%
• From 2025-09-26 close to 2025-10-31 close, the Russell 2000 Index (^RUT) will underperform the S&P 500 Index (^GSPC) by at least 3.0 percentage points based on percentage change in adjusted close prices. — 56%
• U.S. core CPI (all items less food and energy, year-over-year) for September 2025 will be between 3.1% and 3.3% in the BLS release on 2025-10-10. — 57%
• EIA-reported 4-week average U.S. crude oil exports will reach at or above 4.50 million barrels per day in at least one Weekly Petroleum Status Report published by 2025-11-15. — 54%
• NYMEX Henry Hub natural gas front-month futures will settle at or above $3.75 per MMBtu on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30. — 55%
• Euro area HCOB Flash Composite PMI for October 2025 will print at or below 50.2 in the release due 2025-10-24. — 55%

2025-09-27 — 136 items — newsletter

• If a U.S. federal government shutdown begins on 2025-10-01, it will end by 2025-10-06 (inclusive) via enactment of a continuing resolution or full-year appropriations. — 59%
• ISM Manufacturing Prices Index for October 2025 will print between 50.0 and 55.0 in the report due by 2025-11-04. — 56%
• U.S. New Home Sales (SAAR) for September 2025 will print between 650,000 and 740,000 in the Census release due 2025-10-29. — 55%
• U.S. JOLTS quits rate for August 2025 will print between 2.1% and 2.3% in the BLS release on 2025-10-01. — 58%
• Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) will close at or above 25.00 on at least one trading day by 2025-10-31 (UTC). — 53%
• Bitcoin (BTC-USD) will close at or below $53,000 on at least one UTC day by 2025-11-30. — 49%
• The Brent–WTI spot spread (FRED: DCOILBRENTEU minus DCOILWTICO) will reach at or above $7.00 per barrel on at least one daily observation by 2025-11-30. — 54%
• Henry Hub natural gas spot price (FRED: DHHNGSP) will print at or below $2.30 per MMBtu on at least one daily observation by 2025-11-30. — 55%
• Caixin China Services PMI for October 2025 will print between 51.0 and 53.5 in the release due by 2025-11-05. — 56%
• Euro area core HICP (YoY, flash) for October 2025 will print between 2.3% and 2.7% in Eurostat’s 2025-10-31 release. — 57%
• Boeing (BA) will report at least 45 commercial aircraft deliveries for October 2025 in its monthly update published by 2025-11-15. — 60%
• Electronic Arts (EA) will announce a definitive agreement to be acquired or taken private at an equity value of at least $50 billion by 2025-10-31. — 47%
• U.S. 5-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate (FRED: T5YIE) will reach at or above 2.25% on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30. — 55%

2025-09-26 — 140 items — newsletter

• U.S. PCE price index (headline, seasonally adjusted) month-over-month for September 2025 will be between 0.15% and 0.30% in the BEA release on 2025-10-31. — 56%
• ICE BofA US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread (FRED: BAMLC0A0CM) will reach at or above 1.50 percentage points on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 52%
• The ICE U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) will close at or above 109.00 on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 51%
• Amazon (AMZN) will recognize a GAAP charge of at least $2.0B related to the FTC Prime settlement in its Q3 2025 earnings release or Form 10-Q published by 2025-10-31. — 62%
• EIA Weekly U.S. Field Production of Crude Oil will print at or above 13.6 million barrels per day for at least one week ending by 2025-11-29, as published by 2025-11-30. — 54%
• The U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield (FRED: DGS10) will close at or above 4.70% on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 53%
• Euro area unemployment rate (seasonally adjusted) for September 2025 will print between 6.2% and 6.6% in Eurostat’s release due by 2025-10-31. — 61%
• From 2025-09-26 close to 2025-10-31 close, Tesla (TSLA) will underperform the Nasdaq-100 Index (^NDX) by at least 5.0 percentage points based on percentage change in adjusted close prices. — 55%
• Copernicus ERA5 global surface air temperature for September 2025 will rank within the top 2 warmest Septembers on record in the C3S monthly bulletin released by 2025-10-07. — 60%
• UK Retail Sales volume (seasonally adjusted, including fuel) month-over-month for September 2025 will print between -0.6% and +0.4% in the ONS release on 2025-10-18. — 55%
• China Caixin Manufacturing PMI for October 2025 will print between 50.0 and 51.5 in the release by 2025-11-01. — 55%
• At its early-November 2025 meeting, the Bank of England will leave Bank Rate unchanged. — 58%

2025-09-25 — 135 items — newsletter

• U.S. CPI (all items, seasonally adjusted) month-over-month for September 2025 will be between 0.15% and 0.30% in the BLS CPI release on 2025-10-10. — 57%
• U.S. Average Hourly Earnings (total private) year-over-year for September 2025 will be between 3.6% and 4.0% in the BLS Employment Situation on 2025-10-03. — 56%
• At its 2025-10-23 meeting, the ECB will leave the deposit facility rate unchanged. — 60%
• The Nasdaq-100 Index (^NDX) will close at or above 20,000 on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 55%
• U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding SPR) will reach at or above 440.0 million barrels in at least one EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report published by 2025-11-15. — 54%
• The MBA Weekly Survey 30-year fixed mortgage rate (conforming) will print at or above 6.80% in at least one report released by 2025-10-31. — 52%
• By 2025-10-31, the EU Council will announce adoption of a new Russia-related sanctions package via an official press release or legal act on consilium.europa.eu or EUR-Lex. — 58%
• Meta Platforms (META) Q3 2025 revenue will be between $39.0B and $42.0B, per the company’s earnings release published by 2025-10-31. — 55%
• The Drewry World Container Index Shanghai–Rotterdam weekly spot rate published on or before 2025-10-31 will be at least 20% higher than its 2025-09-05 reading. — 56%
• The U.S. Initial Jobless Claims 4-week moving average (seasonally adjusted) will reach at or above 230,000 in at least one weekly DOL report released by 2025-10-31. — 57%
• USD/JPY (Yahoo Finance: JPY=X) will trade at or above 155.00 on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 53%
• UK monthly GDP (ONS) for August 2025 will print between -0.2% and +0.3% month-over-month in the release due 2025-10-11. — 56%

2025-09-24 — 134 items — newsletter

• U.S. JOLTS job openings (seasonally adjusted, total nonfarm) for August 2025 will be between 7.5 million and 7.8 million in the BLS release on 2025-10-01. — 55%
• U.S. unemployment rate (U-3, seasonally adjusted) for September 2025 will be between 4.1% and 4.3% in the BLS Employment Situation released 2025-10-03. — 58%
• The U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield (FRED: DGS10) will close at or below 3.95% on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 54%
• The ICE U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) will close at or above 107.00 on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 52%
• From 2025-09-24 close to 2025-10-31 close, iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) will outperform the S&P 500 Index (^GSPC) by at least 2.5 percentage points based on percentage change in adjusted close prices. — 58%
• U.S. ending stocks of distillate fuel oil will reach at or above 125.0 million barrels in at least one EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report released by 2025-11-15. — 54%
• Copernicus ERA5 global surface air temperature for October 2025 will rank within the top 3 warmest Octobers on record in the C3S monthly bulletin released by 2025-11-10. — 59%
• By 2025-11-30, OpenAI or its named infrastructure partners will publicly announce at least one additional U.S. site for the 'Stargate' AI data center program beyond Texas, via an official blog post, press release, or regulatory filing naming the location. — 57%
• By 2025-10-31, the U.K. government will announce at least one new sanctions designation under its Russia-related sanctions regime, via an official GOV.UK press release or OFSI consolidated list update. — 60%
• NYMEX WTI crude oil front-month futures will settle at or below $72.00 per barrel on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30. — 51%

2025-09-23 — 135 items — newsletter

• At its early-November 2025 meeting, the FOMC will lower the federal funds target range by at least 25 basis points. — 58%
• From 2025-09-23 close to 2025-10-31 close, Apple (AAPL) will outperform the S&P 500 Index (^GSPC) by at least 3.0 percentage points based on percentage change in adjusted close prices. — 55%
• The LBMA Gold Price PM will fix at or above $3,800 per troy ounce on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30. — 47%
• By 2025-10-31, the European Commission will open a formal DMA non-compliance proceeding or issue a Statement of Objections against at least one designated gatekeeper. — 57%
• By 2025-10-31, Ørsted will publicly announce the resumption of construction or offshore installation activities for the Revolution Wind project. — 61%
• By 2025-10-31, at least three additional UN member states will formally recognize the State of Palestine after 2025-09-22. — 54%
• By 2025-11-30, India will approve at least two new semiconductor fab or advanced packaging projects under the India Semiconductor Mission with combined central incentives of $6B or more. — 56%
• The EIA 4-week average 'product supplied of finished motor gasoline' will fall to at or below 8.50 million barrels per day in at least one weekly report released by 2025-11-15. — 58%
• ISM Services PMI for October 2025 will print between 50.0 and 52.5 in the release due by 2025-11-05. — 55%
• The MBA Weekly Survey 30-year fixed mortgage rate (conforming) will print at or below 6.25% in at least one report released by 2025-11-30. — 53%
• The ICE U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) will close at or below 101.00 on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 54%
• Seasonally adjusted U.S. insured unemployment (continuing claims) will reach at or above 1.90 million in at least one weekly report released by 2025-10-31. — 56%

2025-09-22 — 93 items — newsletter

• U.S. real GDP growth (advance estimate, SAAR) for Q3 2025 will be between 2.0% and 3.0% in the BEA release on 2025-10-30. — 56%
• Euro area flash HICP headline inflation (YoY) for October 2025 will be between 2.2% and 2.6% in Eurostat’s 2025-10-31 release. — 57%
• China NBS Manufacturing PMI for October 2025 will print between 49.6 and 50.6 in the release on 2025-10-31. — 56%
• Tokyo CPI excluding fresh food (core) year-over-year for October 2025 will be between 2.1% and 2.5% in the release by 2025-11-01 (JST). — 55%
• U.S. core PCE price index month-over-month for September 2025 will be between 0.16% and 0.28% in the BEA release on 2025-10-31. — 57%
• For the week ending 2025-10-11, the EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report will show a U.S. working gas change between +65 and +95 Bcf in the report released by 2025-10-17. — 55%
• ICE Arabica Coffee (KC) front-month futures will settle at or above 260.0 cents per pound on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30. — 53%
• Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) will close at or below 12.00 on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30. — 44%
• USD/CNH (Yahoo Finance: USDCNH=X) will close at or below 7.35 on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 41%
• By 2025-10-31, OFAC will designate at least five vessels or entities tied to Russia’s maritime 'shadow fleet' under its Russia-related program via public press release or SDN List update. — 58%
• ISM Manufacturing PMI for October 2025 will print between 48.0 and 50.5 in the release by 2025-11-04. — 56%
• LME 3-month Aluminum official settlement price will reach at or above $2,550 per metric ton on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30. — 52%
• By 2025-11-15, the European Commission will publish its Financial Data Access (FIDA) framework proposal explicitly excluding DMA-designated 'gatekeeper' firms from accessing consumer financial data. — 55%
• CME/NYMEX VIX-related extremes aside, USD note: This line intentionally left blank to avoid duplication. — 0%

2025-09-21 — 93 items — newsletter

• U.S. PCE price index excluding food and energy (core) year-over-year for September 2025 will be between 2.6% and 2.9%, as reported by BEA on 2025-10-31. — 57%
• U.S. CPI shelter index (BLS series CUSR0000SAH1) month-over-month for September 2025 will be between 0.35% and 0.45% in the CPI release on 2025-10-10. — 56%
• The U.S. 10Y–3M Treasury yield spread (FRED: T10Y3M) will be at or above -0.90 percentage points on at least one trading day by 2025-10-31. — 58%
• Euro area unemployment rate for August 2025 will print between 6.2% and 6.6% in Eurostat’s release on 2025-09-30. — 61%
• UK CPI (headline) year-over-year for September 2025 will be between 2.3% and 3.1% in the ONS release due 2025-10-16. — 56%
• By 2025-10-31, OFAC will announce at least one sanctions designation under its China- or Hong Kong-related programs via public press release or sanctions list update. — 57%
• ICE Endex Dutch TTF front-month natural gas futures will settle at or above €40.00 per MWh on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30. — 54%
• LME 3-month Copper official settlement price will reach at or above $9,800 per metric ton on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30. — 55%
• For the week ending 2025-10-04, the EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report will show a U.S. working gas change between +70 and +100 Bcf, in the report released by 2025-10-10. — 55%
• USD/MXN (Yahoo Finance: MXN=X) will close at or above 18.50 on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 56%
• By 2025-10-31, the Federal Register will publish at least one DHS/USCIS proposed, interim final, or final rule—or fee notice—addressing H-1B petition fees. — 53%
• By 2025-10-31, the U.S. Commerce Department’s BIS will add at least five entities with PRC addresses to the Entity List, as published in the Federal Register. — 58%

2025-09-20 — 135 items — newsletter

• The U.S. federal government will enter a lapse in appropriations (shutdown) beginning 2025-10-01 due to no enacted continuing resolution or full-year appropriations. — 57%
• By 2025-10-31, the SEC will publish a Notice of Proposed Rulemaking to modify quarterly earnings/reporting cadence (e.g., changes to Form 10-Q or issuer earnings release expectations). — 54%
• The U.S. AAA national average price for regular gasoline will be at or below $3.45 per gallon on at least one day by 2025-11-15. — 57%
• S&P 500 Index (^GSPC) will close at or below 5,200 on at least one trading day by 2025-10-31 (UTC). — 55%
• Ethereum (ETH-USD) will trade at or above $3,900 on at least one day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 54%
• University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (final) for September 2025 will print between 66.0 and 70.0 in the release by 2025-09-27. — 56%
• U.S. change in total nonfarm payrolls for September 2025 will be between +110,000 and +230,000, per BLS Employment Situation on 2025-10-03. — 56%
• U.S. PPI Final Demand year-over-year for September 2025 will be between 2.0% and 2.7%, as reported by BLS on 2025-10-09. — 55%
• USD/CNH (Yahoo Finance: USDCNH=X) will close at or above 7.55 on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 57%
• ICE Brent front-month crude futures will settle at or above $97.00 per barrel on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30. — 55%
• By 2025-11-30, xAI will announce or file that it has raised at least $10 billion in new equity funding at a post-money valuation of at least $180 billion. — 52%

2025-09-19 — 137 items — newsletter

• From 2025-09-19 close to 2025-10-31 close, Intel (INTC) will outperform iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) by at least 3.0 percentage points based on percentage change in adjusted close prices. — 57%
• By 2025-10-31, Netskope (NTSK) will close at or above its IPO price on at least 10 trading days since listing (counting from 2025-09-18 to 2025-10-31, Nasdaq trading days). — 55%
• By 2025-10-31, Google or PayPal will announce a live U.S. retailer pilot enabling AI agent–guided shopping with checkout via PayPal/Braintree in Chrome, Search, or Shopping, via an official blog post or press release naming the retailer. — 56%
• By 2025-10-31, the U.S. 10Y–2Y Treasury yield spread (FRED: DGS10 minus DGS2) will be at or above -0.10 percentage points on at least one trading day. — 57%
• The Drewry World Container Index Shanghai–New York weekly spot rate published on or before 2025-10-31 will be at least 15% higher than the 2025-09-05 reading. — 56%
• Euro area flash HICP headline inflation (YoY) for September 2025 will be between 2.3% and 2.7% in Eurostat’s 2025-09-30 release. — 56%
• U.S. Advance Retail and Food Services sales month-over-month for September 2025 will be between -0.2% and +0.5% in the Census release on 2025-10-16. — 55%
• Tokyo CPI excluding fresh food (core) year-over-year for September 2025 will be between 2.3% and 2.7% in the release due by 2025-10-04 (JST). — 56%
• UK GfK Consumer Confidence index for October 2025 will be at or above -12 in the release due by 2025-10-25. — 55%
• EIA Weekly U.S. Field Production of Crude Oil will reach at or above 13.4 million barrels per day in at least one report for a week ending by 2025-10-25, published by 2025-10-31. — 56%
• By 2025-10-31, OFAC will announce at least one sanctions designation under its Venezuela-related program via public press release or sanctions list update. — 60%

2025-09-18 — 135 items — newsletter

• On 2025-09-21 (JST release window), the Bank of Japan will leave its short-term policy rate unchanged at its September meeting. — 62%
• Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) will close at or above 22.00 on at least one trading day by 2025-10-31. — 57%
• Bitcoin (BTC-USD) will trade at or above $74,000 on at least one day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 55%
• NYMEX Henry Hub natural gas front-month futures will settle at or above $3.20 per MMBtu on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30. — 56%
• U.S. Initial Jobless Claims (seasonally adjusted) will be at or above 245,000 in at least one weekly report released by 2025-10-31. — 56%
• Copernicus ERA5 global surface air temperature for September 2025 will be the warmest September on record, per C3S monthly bulletin released by 2025-10-10. — 59%
• The MBA Refinance Share of Mortgage Applications will reach at or above 36% in at least one weekly report released by 2025-10-31. — 57%
• The U.S. 2-Year Treasury yield (FRED: DGS2) will close at or below 3.95% on at least one trading day by 2025-10-31. — 56%
• By 2025-10-31, the U.S. Commerce Department’s BIS will publish a Federal Register rule expanding export controls on advanced AI chips to China. — 56%
• Nikkei 225 (^N225) will close at or above 42,500 on at least one trading day by 2025-10-31 (Tokyo time). — 55%
• The Conference Board U.S. Consumer Confidence Index for September 2025 will be at or below 102.0 in the 2025-09-24 release. — 56%

2025-09-17 — 139 items — newsletter

• U.S. housing starts (SAAR) for August 2025 will be between 1.23 million and 1.34 million in the Census Bureau New Residential Construction release on 2025-09-18. — 57%
• On 2025-09-26, the Swiss National Bank will cut its policy rate by 25 basis points. — 58%
• By 2025-10-31, OFAC will announce at least one sanctions designation under its Iran-related program via public press release or sanctions list update. — 60%
• The AAA-reported California state average price for regular gasoline will reach at or above $5.60 per gallon on at least one day by 2025-10-15. — 57%
• By 2025-10-31 (UTC), NOAA SWPC will record at least one solar flare of class X1.0 or higher. — 56%
• Germany Ifo Business Climate index for September 2025 will print between 84.0 and 87.0 in the release on 2025-09-25. — 56%
• EUR/USD (Yahoo Finance: EURUSD=X) will close at or above 1.0900 on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 55%
• LME 3-month Nickel official settlement price will reach at or above $19,000 per metric ton on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30. — 55%
• Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) for August 2025 will print between -0.20 and +0.15 in the release on 2025-09-23. — 55%
• UK GfK Consumer Confidence index for September 2025 will be at or above -13 in the release due by 2025-09-20. — 55%
• NYMEX RBOB gasoline front-month futures will settle at or above $2.60 per gallon on at least one trading day by 2025-10-31. — 55%
• U.S. ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index for September 2025 will print at or above 49.0 in the 2025-10-01 release. — 56%
• China Total Social Financing (TSF) for September 2025 will be at or above CNY 3.2 trillion in the PBoC release by 2025-10-15. — 54%

2025-09-16 — 132 items — newsletter

• China NBS Manufacturing PMI for September 2025 will print between 49.5 and 50.5 in the release on 2025-09-30. — 57%
• Tokyo CPI ‘core-core’ (excluding fresh food and energy) year-over-year for September 2025 will be between 1.6% and 1.9% in the release by 2025-10-04. — 55%
• U.S. unemployment rate for September 2025 will be between 4.0% and 4.2%, per BLS Employment Situation on 2025-10-03. — 58%
• U.S. CPI-U headline year-over-year for September 2025 will be between 2.7% and 3.1%, as reported by BLS on 2025-10-10. — 57%
• U.S. CPI-U core (all items less food and energy) year-over-year for September 2025 will be between 3.0% and 3.3%, as reported by BLS on 2025-10-10. — 56%
• NYMEX WTI front-month crude futures will settle at or above $93.00 per barrel on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30. — 55%
• The LBMA Gold Price PM will fix at or above $2,600 per troy ounce on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30. — 55%
• USD/JPY (Yahoo Finance: JPY=X) will close at or above 154.00 on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 55%
• Solana (SOL-USD) will trade at or above $190 on at least one day by 2025-10-31 (UTC). — 54%
• By 2025-10-31, OFAC will announce at least one sanctions designation under its Russia-related program via public press release or sanctions list update. — 62%
• U.S. JOLTS Job Openings for August 2025 will be at or above 8.5 million in the BLS release on 2025-10-01. — 55%
• The U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield (FRED: DGS10) will close at or below 3.65% on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30. — 55%

2025-09-15 — 93 items — newsletter

• On 2025-09-18, the Bank of England MPC vote split will include at least one member voting to keep Bank Rate unchanged. — 60%
• ISM Services PMI for September 2025 will print between 50.0 and 52.5 in the 2025-10-03 release. — 56%
• U.S. core PCE price index month-over-month for August 2025 will be between 0.1% and 0.2% in the BEA release on 2025-09-27. — 58%
• The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey 15-year fixed mortgage rate will be at or below 5.85% in at least one weekly reading released by 2025-10-31. — 55%
• The ICE BofA US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread (FRED: BAMLH0A0HYM2) will reach at or above 4.50% on at least one day by 2025-10-31. — 56%
• The LBMA Gold Price PM will fix at or above $2,550 per troy ounce on at least one trading day by 2025-10-31. — 55%
• For the week ending 2025-09-27, EIA will report a U.S. working natural gas storage change between +75 and +100 Bcf in the Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report released by 2025-10-03. — 55%
• U.S. Industrial Production month-over-month for September 2025 will be between -0.2% and +0.3% in the Federal Reserve G.17 release on 2025-10-16. — 55%
• By 2025-10-31, the CFPB will announce at least one enforcement action or consent order involving a Buy-Now-Pay-Later provider. — 54%
• USD/JPY (Yahoo Finance: JPY=X) will close at or above 152.50 on at least one trading day by 2025-10-31 (UTC). — 55%

2025-09-14 — 87 items — newsletter

• U.S. PCE price index excluding food and energy (core) year-over-year for August 2025 will be between 2.6% and 2.9%, as reported by BEA on 2025-09-27. — 58%
• ISM Manufacturing PMI for September 2025 will print between 47.0 and 49.5 in the 2025-10-01 release. — 56%
• The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey 30-year fixed mortgage rate will be at or below 6.40% in at least one weekly reading released by 2025-10-31. — 55%
• From 2025-09-15 close to 2025-10-31 close, NVIDIA (NVDA) will underperform the Nasdaq-100 Index (^NDX) by at least 5.0 percentage points based on percentage change in adjusted close prices. — 55%
• By 2025-10-14, California Governor Gavin Newsom will veto AI safety bill SB 53 (or return it without signature), as recorded on the California Legislative Information site. — 56%
• The U.S. national average diesel price (AAA) will reach at or above $4.25 per gallon on at least one day by 2025-10-31. — 55%
• EUR/GBP (Yahoo Finance: EURGBP=X) will close at or above 0.8600 on at least one trading day by 2025-10-31 (UTC). — 56%
• Euro area HICP core (excluding energy and unprocessed food) flash estimate year-over-year for September 2025 will be between 2.6% and 2.9%, per Eurostat release on 2025-09-30. — 55%
• By 2025-10-31, OFAC will announce at least one sanctions designation under its North Korea-related program (DPRK), via public press release or sanctions list update. — 58%
• The Drewry World Container Index Shanghai–Los Angeles weekly spot rate published on or before 2025-10-31 will be at least 15% higher than the 2025-09-05 reading. — 56%
• Copernicus ERA5 global surface air temperature for October 2025 will rank within the top 3 warmest Octobers on record, per the C3S monthly Climate Bulletin released by 2025-11-10. — 59%
• U.S. insured unemployment (continuing claims, seasonally adjusted) will be at or above 1.92 million in at least one weekly reading reported by 2025-10-31. — 55%

2025-09-13 — 126 items — newsletter

• At the September 17, 2025 FOMC, the SEP median longer-run federal funds rate will be 2.8%. — 62%
• U.S. Industrial Production m/m (seasonally adjusted) for August 2025 will be between -0.3% and 0.2% in the Board of Governors G.17 release on 2025-09-17. — 55%
• USD/MXN (Yahoo Finance: MXN=X) will close at or above 19.00 on at least one trading day by 2025-10-31 (UTC). — 57%
• By 2025-10-31, either Joby Aviation or Archer Aviation will publicly announce completion of at least one passenger-carrying flight in the U.S. conducted under the FAA’s limited pre-certification eVTOL operations program. — 58%
• By 2025-10-31, OFAC will announce at least one sanctions designation of a Mexico-based individual or entity under the Kingpin Act (SDNT/SDNTK). — 62%
• ICE Endex Dutch TTF Natural Gas front-month futures will settle at or above €45.00 per MWh on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30. — 55%
• From 2025-09-13 close to 2025-10-31 close, Tesla (TSLA) will underperform SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) by at least 5.0 percentage points based on percentage change in adjusted close prices. — 56%
• The U.S. national average regular gasoline price (AAA) will reach at or above $3.90 per gallon on at least one day by 2025-10-15. — 56%
• UK CPI headline year-over-year for August 2025 will be between 2.8% and 3.2%, as reported by ONS on 2025-09-18. — 55%
• The Boeing defense workers strike will still be ongoing on 2025-09-30 (no ratified agreement announced by that date). — 57%

2025-09-12 — 139 items — newsletter

• University of Michigan 5-year inflation expectations (prelim) for September 2025 will be between 2.8% and 3.1%, reported on 2025-09-13. — 55%
• U.S. Import Price Index excluding petroleum m/m for August 2025 will be at or above 0.2% in the BLS release on 2025-09-13. — 54%
• U.S. Retail Sales headline m/m for August 2025 will be between 0.1% and 0.5% in the Census release on 2025-09-17. — 55%
• U.S. PPI final demand less foods, energy, and trade services m/m for August 2025 will be between 0.2% and 0.5% in the BLS release on 2025-09-12. — 56%
• At the September 17, 2025 FOMC, the SEP median projection for the federal funds rate at end-2026 will be between 3.0% and 3.5% (midpoint terms). — 56%
• EUR/USD (Yahoo Finance: EURUSD=X) will close at or below 1.0600 on at least one trading day by 2025-10-31 (UTC). — 55%
• Nasdaq-100 Index (^NDX) will close at or above 20,000 on at least one trading day by 2025-10-31. — 56%
• COMEX Copper front-month futures (HG) will settle at or above $4.20 per pound on at least one trading day by 2025-10-31. — 54%
• For the week ending 2025-09-19, EIA will report a U.S. working natural gas storage change between +70 and +95 Bcf in the Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report released on 2025-09-26. — 55%
• By 2025-10-31 (UTC), NOAA SWPC will record at least one Kp index reading of 7 or higher. — 56%
• UK CPI core (ex food, energy, alcohol & tobacco) year-over-year for August 2025 will be between 2.8% and 3.2%, as reported by ONS on 2025-09-18. — 55%
• On 2025-09-18, the Bank of England will cut Bank Rate by 25 basis points. — 54%
• The Drewry World Container Index Shanghai–Rotterdam weekly spot rate published on or before 2025-09-26 will be at least 10% higher than the 2025-08-29 reading. — 56%

2025-09-11 — 129 items — newsletter

• Euro area HICP flash year-over-year for September 2025 will be between 2.4% and 2.8%, per Eurostat release on 2025-09-30. — 55%
• University of Michigan 1-year inflation expectations (prelim) for September 2025 will be between 2.8% and 3.2%, reported on 2025-09-13. — 54%
• The S&P 500 Index (SPX) will close at or above 5650 on at least one trading day by 2025-10-15 (New York time). — 56%
• Cboe VIX futures curve will be in backwardation (VX1 settlement > VX2 settlement) for at least 2 consecutive trading days by 2025-10-31. — 55%
• The U.S. 2-year/10-year Treasury yield spread (FRED: T10Y2Y) will close at or above 0.00% on at least one trading day by 2025-10-31. — 54%
• ICE Brent front-month crude futures will settle at or above $96.00 per barrel on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30. — 55%
• USD/CNH (Yahoo Finance: CNH=X) will close at or above 7.50 on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 54%
• Ethereum (ETH-USD) will trade at or above $3,300 on at least one day by 2025-10-31 (UTC). — 55%
• ICE Endex EU ETS EUA December-2025 futures will settle at or above €67.00 per metric ton at least once by 2025-10-31. — 54%
• By 2025-10-31, OFAC will announce at least one sanctions designation explicitly naming Hezbollah or Hezbollah-linked individuals/entities via a public press release or sanctions list update. — 56%
• The LBMA Silver Price PM will fix at or above $35.00/oz on at least one trading day by 2025-10-31. — 54%

2025-09-10 — 141 items — newsletter

• U.S. CPI-U core (all items less food and energy) year-over-year for August 2025 will be between 3.1% and 3.4%, as reported by BLS on 2025-09-11. — 57%
• U.S. Retail Sales control group (ex autos, gasoline, building materials, and food services) month-over-month for August 2025 will be between -0.1% and 0.3% in the Census release on 2025-09-17. — 55%
• At the September 17, 2025 FOMC, the SEP median projection for the federal funds rate at end-2025 will be between 4.50% and 5.00% (midpoint terms). — 56%
• From 2025-09-10 close to 2025-09-30 close, Oracle (ORCL) will outperform SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) by at least 4.0 percentage points based on percentage change in adjusted close prices. — 57%
• The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) will close at or above 20.00 on at least one trading day by 2025-10-31. — 54%
• USD/CNH (Yahoo Finance: CNH=X) will close at or above 7.45 on at least one trading day by 2025-10-31 (UTC). — 55%
• ICE Brent front-month crude futures will settle at or above $94.00 per barrel on at least one trading day by 2025-10-31. — 54%
• By 2025-10-31, the U.S. Treasury’s OFAC will designate at least one PRC-based individual or entity for fentanyl, precursor chemicals, or related trafficking via a public press release or sanctions list update. — 58%
• Copernicus ERA5 global surface air temperature for September 2025 will rank within the top 3 warmest Septembers on record, per the C3S monthly Climate Bulletin released by 2025-10-10. — 59%
• Bitcoin (BTC-USD) will trade at or above $68,000 on at least one day by 2025-10-31. — 54%
• By 2025-10-15, the npm/GitHub Advisory Database will publish at least one Critical-severity advisory for a compromised npm package with ≥100,000 weekly downloads at time of disclosure. — 56%
• U.S. initial jobless claims (seasonally adjusted) will be at or above 240,000 for at least one weekly reading reported by 2025-10-31. — 55%

2025-09-09 — 1102 items — newsletter

• U.S. CPI-U headline year-over-year for August 2025 will be between 2.7% and 3.1%, as reported by BLS on 2025-09-11. — 58%
• At the September 2025 FOMC meeting (decision expected 2025-09-17), the Fed will cut the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 bp to 4.75%–5.00%. — 54%
• The U.S. 2-Year Treasury yield (FRED: DGS2) will close at or below 3.95% on at least one trading day by 2025-10-31. — 55%
• From 2025-09-09 close to 2025-10-15 close, Robinhood Markets (HOOD) will outperform SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) by at least 6.0 percentage points based on percentage change in adjusted close prices. — 57%
• By 2025-10-31 (UTC), the AWS Service Health Dashboard will post at least one public incident citing subsea cable disruption in the Red Sea/Suez/Gulf of Aden region causing connectivity degradation or traffic rerouting. — 53%
• For the week ending 2025-09-20, EIA will report a U.S. motor gasoline inventory build of at least 1.5 million barrels in the Weekly Petroleum Status Report released on 2025-09-25. — 54%
• By 2025-10-31, the U.S. Treasury’s OFAC will announce at least one new sanctions designation targeting Iranian defense, missile, or UAV sector entities or individuals via a public press release or sanctions list update. — 58%
• The Nikkei 225 (N225) will close at or above 44,500 on at least one trading day by 2025-10-15 (Tokyo time). — 56%
• NYMEX Henry Hub front-month natural gas futures will settle at or above $3.40 per MMBtu on at least one trading day by 2025-10-31. — 54%
• The U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield (FRED: DGS10) will close at or below 3.80% on at least one trading day by 2025-10-31. — 53%

2025-09-08 — 85 items — newsletter

• The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) will close at or below 12.50 on at least one trading day by 2025-09-30. — 58%
• USD/JPY (Yahoo Finance: JPY=X) will close at or above 152.00 on at least one trading day by 2025-09-30. — 54%
• U.S. Producer Price Index (final demand) m/m for August 2025 will be between 0.2% and 0.5% in the BLS release on 2025-09-12. — 57%
• By 2025-09-30, the U.S. Department of Defense will announce at least one Ukraine security assistance package via Presidential Drawdown Authority valued at $250 million or more. — 60%
• By 2025-10-31 (UTC), Cloudflare Status will post an incident citing subsea cable disruption in the Red Sea/Suez/Gulf of Aden region causing connectivity degradation or traffic rerouting. — 53%
• NYMEX RBOB Gasoline front-month futures will settle at or above $2.75 per gallon on at least one trading day by 2025-10-15. — 55%
• By 2025-10-31, the Council of the European Union will adopt and publish in the Official Journal at least one new Russia-related restrictive measures act (package or listings). — 56%

2025-09-07 — 86 items — newsletter

• By 2025-10-31, the U.S. Trade Representative will formally announce initiation of a Section 301 investigation into alleged discriminatory EU actions against U.S. tech firms via a USTR press release or Federal Register notice. — 56%
• For the week ending 2025-09-13, EIA will report a U.S. distillate fuel oil inventory build of at least 2.0 million barrels in the Weekly Petroleum Status Report released on 2025-09-18. — 55%
• COMEX Gold front-month futures will settle at or above $2,680/oz on at least one trading day by 2025-10-31. — 57%
• From 2025-09-08 close to 2025-10-31 close, Kraft Heinz (KHC) will underperform Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR (XLP) by at least 5.0 percentage points based on percentage change in adjusted close prices. — 56%
• By 2025-10-31 (UTC), at least one of Microsoft Azure Status or Google Cloud Status will post a public incident citing subsea cable disruption in the Red Sea/Suez/Gulf of Aden region causing connectivity degradation or traffic rerouting. — 53%
• By 2025-10-31, the U.S. Treasury’s OFAC will announce at least one new sanctions designation targeting Russian defense-industrial or financial sector entities or individuals via a public press release or sanctions list update. — 60%
• The 10-Year Treasury Inflation-Indexed Security, Constant Maturity (FRED: DFII10) will close at or below 1.50% on at least one trading day by 2025-10-31. — 56%

2025-09-06 — 131 items — newsletter

• U.S. CPI-U headline m/m (seasonally adjusted) for August 2025 will be between 0.0% and 0.2%, as reported by BLS on 2025-09-11. — 57%
• The U.S. 5-Year Treasury yield (FRED: DGS5) will close at or below 3.95% on at least one trading day by 2025-09-30. — 56%
• By 2025-09-09, OPEC+ will announce no net increase to aggregate production targets for October 2025 versus September 2025 in its official post-meeting communiqué. — 58%
• From 2025-09-06 close to 2025-09-27 close, AppLovin (APP) will outperform SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) by at least 4.0 percentage points based on percentage change in adjusted close prices. — 55%
• By 2025-10-15, the U.S. Treasury’s OFAC will announce at least one new sanctions designation targeting Brazilian individuals or entities via a public press release or sanctions list update. — 55%
• NYMEX WTI front-month futures will settle at or above $92.50 per barrel at least once by 2025-10-15. — 55%
• By 2025-10-31, Google (Alphabet Inc.) will file an appeal against the European Commission’s €2.95B ad tech fine with the General Court of the European Union. — 59%

2025-09-05 — 138 items — newsletter

• Between 2025-09-05 and 2025-09-20, the S&P 500 Index (SPX) will set at least three new all-time closing highs. — 55%
• From 2025-09-05 close to 2025-09-20 close, Broadcom (AVGO) will outperform iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) by at least 3.0 percentage points based on percentage change in adjusted close prices. — 57%
• From 2025-09-05 close to 2025-09-30 close, T. Rowe Price (TROW) will outperform SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) by at least 6.0 percentage points based on percentage change in adjusted close prices. — 56%
• The Drewry World Container Index Shanghai–New York weekly spot rate published on or before 2025-09-26 will be at least 10% higher than the 2025-08-29 reading. — 56%
• The 10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate (FRED: T10YIE) will close at or below 2.20% on at least one trading day by 2025-09-30. — 55%
• By 2025-10-31 (UTC), NOAA SWPC will record at least one X1.0-class or stronger solar flare. — 58%
• ICE UK Emissions Allowance (UKA) December-2025 futures will settle at or above £44.00 per metric ton at least once by 2025-10-31. — 55%

2025-09-04 — 137 items — newsletter

• By 2025-10-31, the U.S. Department of Justice will file a remedies proposal in the Google Search antitrust case that seeks to prohibit Google from paying for default search placement on browsers or devices. — 57%
• The LBMA Gold Price PM will fix at or above $2,650/oz on at least two trading days by 2025-10-31. — 55%
• The U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield (FRED: DGS10) will close at or below 3.95% on at least one trading day by 2025-09-30. — 56%
• At Apple’s September 9, 2025 event, the U.S. starting price for the base iPhone 16 Pro will be announced as at least $1,099. — 57%
• ICE Endex Dutch TTF front-month natural gas futures will settle at or above €40.00/MWh on at least one trading day by 2025-10-31. — 54%
• NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center will issue at least one G3 (Strong) geomagnetic storm watch or warning by 2025-10-31 (UTC). — 56%
• U.S. CPI-U core m/m (seasonally adjusted) for August 2025 will be at or below 0.3%, as reported by BLS on 2025-09-11. — 58%

2025-09-03 — 139 items — newsletter

• From 2025-09-03 close to 2025-09-30 close, Alphabet Inc. Class A (GOOGL) will outperform SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) by at least 2.0 percentage points based on percentage change in adjusted close prices. — 57%
• From 2025-09-03 close to 2025-10-15 close, PepsiCo (PEP) will outperform Coca-Cola (KO) by at least 3.0 percentage points based on percentage change in adjusted close prices. — 56%
• The U.S. 30-Year Treasury yield (FRED: DGS30) will close at or above 5.05% on at least one trading day by 2025-09-30. — 56%
• From 2025-09-03 close to 2025-10-15 close, Salesforce (CRM) will underperform Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) by at least 4.0 percentage points based on percentage change in adjusted close prices. — 55%
• By 2025-09-30, the U.S. Treasury’s OFAC will announce at least one new sanctions designation targeting Venezuelan individuals, entities, or vessels via a public press release or sanctions list update. — 55%
• The Drewry World Container Index Composite published on or before 2025-09-26 will be at least 8% higher than the 2025-08-29 reading. — 55%
• By 2025-09-27, U.S. Core PCE price index m/m (seasonally adjusted) for August 2025 will be between 0.2% and 0.3%. — 58%
• On at least one trading day by 2025-09-10, CME FedWatch will show a combined probability at or below 20% for a 50 bp or larger cut at the September 2025 FOMC meeting. — 56%

2025-09-02 — 97 items — newsletter

• The LBMA Gold Price PM will fix at or above $2,600/oz on at least five days by 2025-09-30. — 60%
• From 2025-09-02 close to 2025-09-30 close, BAE Systems plc (BA/ LN) will outperform the FTSE 100 Index (UKX) by at least 3.5 percentage points based on percentage change in adjusted close prices. — 58%
• From 2025-09-02 close to 2025-09-30 close, Ørsted A/S (ORSTED DC) will outperform the STOXX Europe 600 Utilities Index (SX6P) by at least 6.0 percentage points based on percentage change in adjusted close prices. — 55%
• ICE EUA December-2025 futures will settle at or above €75.00 per metric ton on at least five trading days by 2025-09-30. — 56%
• ICE Brent front-month futures will settle at or above $95.00 per barrel at least once by 2025-10-15. — 55%
• From 2025-09-02 close to 2025-09-30 close, Novo Nordisk (NOVO-B DC) will outperform the STOXX Europe 600 Health Care Index (SXDP) by at least 4.0 percentage points based on percentage change in adjusted close prices. — 59%
• From 2025-09-02 close to 2025-09-30 close, Dollar General (DG) will underperform SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) by at least 4.0 percentage points based on percentage change in adjusted close prices. — 57%

2025-09-01 — 88 items — newsletter

• U.S. Average Hourly Earnings m/m (seasonally adjusted) for August 2025 will be between 0.2% and 0.3%. — 57%
• U.S. nonfarm payrolls (change in total nonfarm employment, SA) for August 2025 will be between +130,000 and +230,000. — 55%
• The U.S. 2-Year Treasury yield (FRED: DGS2) will close at or below 3.85% on at least one trading day by 2025-09-30. — 55%
• The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) will close at or above 20.00 on at least two trading days by 2025-09-30. — 56%
• For the week ending 2025-09-06, EIA will report a U.S. total motor gasoline inventory draw of at least 1.5 million barrels on 2025-09-11. — 54%
• Between 2025-09-01 and 2025-09-30 (UTC), UKMTO will issue at least six incident reports/advisories for the Red Sea, Bab el-Mandeb, or Gulf of Aden. — 60%
• Drewry WCI Shanghai–Los Angeles weekly spot rate published on or before 2025-09-26 will be at least 12% higher than the 2025-08-29 reading. — 56%
• At Apple’s September 9, 2025 event, the U.S. starting price for the base iPhone 16 will be announced as $799 (unchanged from iPhone 15). — 59%

2025-08-31 — 89 items — newsletter

• USD/JPY spot will trade at or above 152.50 at least once by 2025-09-30 (UTC). — 56%
• Between 2025-08-31 and 2025-09-30 (UTC), Yemen’s Houthi movement will claim at least two attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea or Gulf of Aden. — 60%
• USD/MXN spot will trade at or above 18.50 at least once by 2025-09-30 (UTC). — 55%
• By 2025-09-30, U.S. Customs and Border Protection or the Federal Register will publish implementation guidance addressing the August 2025 appellate ruling on Trump-era tariffs. — 58%
• The Drewry World Container Index Shanghai–Rotterdam weekly rate published on or before 2025-09-26 will be at least 10% higher than the 2025-08-29 reading. — 55%
• From 2025-08-30 close to 2025-09-20 close, Rexford Industrial Realty (REXR) will outperform Vanguard Real Estate ETF (VNQ) by at least 3.0 percentage points based on adjusted close prices. — 58%
• By 2025-09-17, CME FedWatch will show a combined probability of at least 40% for a 50 bp or larger cut at the September 2025 FOMC meeting on at least one trading day. — 56%

2025-08-30 — 123 items — newsletter

• U.S. ISM Services Prices Paid index (August 2025) will be at or above 56.0. — 54%
• From 2025-08-30 close to 2025-09-30 close, Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) will outperform SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) by at least 1.5 percentage points based on adjusted close prices. — 56%
• USD/CNH spot will trade at or above 7.45 at least once by 2025-09-30 (UTC). — 56%
• U.S. initial jobless claims (seasonally adjusted) for the week ending 2025-09-06 will be at or below 230,000, as reported on 2025-09-11. — 58%
• For the week ending 2025-09-06, EIA will report a U.S. crude oil inventory build of at least 3.0 million barrels (ex-SPR) on 2025-09-11. — 54%
• The 5-Year, 5-Year Forward Inflation Expectation Rate (FRED: T5YIFR) will close at or below 2.25% on at least one trading day by 2025-09-30. — 55%
• U.S. JOLTS Job Openings (July 2025, seasonally adjusted total) will be at or below 7.75 million. — 57%

2025-08-29 — 132 items — newsletter

• Euro area August 2025 core HICP (Eurostat, flash) will be between 2.6% and 2.9% year-over-year. — 58%
• U.S. ISM Services PMI (August 2025, headline) will print at or above 51.0. — 57%
• U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for August 2025 will be between 4.2% and 4.4%. — 55%
• NYMEX Henry Hub natural gas front-month futures (CME: NG) will settle at or above $3.20/MMBtu at least once by 2025-10-15. — 54%
• At the September 2025 FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve will lower the federal funds target range by at least 50 basis points. — 52%
• U.S. CPI-U headline m/m (seasonally adjusted) for August 2025 will be between 0.2% and 0.4%. — 58%
• From 2025-08-29 close to 2025-09-30 close, iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) will underperform Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) by at least 3.0 percentage points based on adjusted close prices. — 55%

2025-08-28 — 132 items — newsletter

• At its September 12, 2025 meeting, the European Central Bank will lower the deposit facility rate by at least 25 basis points. — 58%
• EUR/USD spot will trade at or below 1.0600 at least once by 2025-09-20 (UTC). — 56%
• From 2025-08-28 close to 2025-09-30 close, iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG) will underperform iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF (LQD) by at least 1.5 percentage points based on adjusted close prices. — 56%
• NYMEX WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil front-month futures (CME: CL) will settle at or above $91.50 per barrel at least once by 2025-10-15. — 55%
• The August 2025 ISM Manufacturing PMI (headline) will print below 50.0. — 59%
• U.S. initial jobless claims (seasonally adjusted) for the week ending 2025-09-13 will be at least 245,000, as reported on 2025-09-18. — 54%
• By 2025-09-20, PayPal will publish a public security advisory, blog post, or press release detailing remedial actions taken in response to the August 2025 German bank payment disruptions. — 57%

2025-08-27 — 134 items — newsletter

• At its September 9, 2025 event, Apple will announce at least one new iPhone model featuring on-device generative AI capabilities (e.g., text or image generation) that run locally without requiring cloud inference. — 63%
• U.S. Core CPI (CPI-U less food and energy) for August 2025 will be 0.2% to 0.3% m/m (seasonally adjusted). — 59%
• From 2025-08-27 close to 2025-10-15 close, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) will underperform Nvidia (NVDA) by at least 8.0 percentage points based on adjusted close prices. — 56%
• By 2025-10-15, AT&T will announce a definitive agreement to acquire EchoStar spectrum or related licenses in a transaction valued at $20 billion or more. — 62%
• By 2025-09-15, a U.S. federal court will issue a temporary restraining order or preliminary injunction preventing removal or suspension of Fed Governor Lisa Cook pending litigation. — 55%
• By 2025-10-31, the U.S. Department of Defense will publish a public RFI, memo, or Federal Register notice discussing potential government equity stakes or warrants in major U.S. defense contractors. — 54%
• Freddie Mac PMMS 30-year fixed-rate mortgage average will print at or above 7.50% in at least one weekly release by 2025-09-30. — 54%

2025-08-26 — 130 items — newsletter

• The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) will close at or above 106.00 on at least one trading day by 2025-09-20. — 57%
• The U.S. 10-year TIPS real yield (FRED: DFII10) will close at or below 1.70% on at least one trading day by 2025-09-30. — 58%
• The ICE BofA US Corporate Index OAS (FRED: BAMLCC0A0CM) will be at least 8 bps higher on 2025-09-30 than on 2025-08-26. — 56%
• From 2025-08-26 close to 2025-09-20 close, Interactive Brokers (IBKR) will outperform SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) by at least 4.0 percentage points based on adjusted close prices. — 60%
• From 2025-08-26 close to 2025-09-30 close, Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) will underperform SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) by at least 4.0 percentage points based on adjusted close prices. — 57%
• The U.S. national average regular gasoline price (AAA) on 2025-09-20 will be at least $0.07/gal higher than on 2025-08-26. — 56%
• By 2025-09-15, at least two of DHL Express, UPS, or FedEx will publish customer notices announcing temporary surcharges, suspensions, or material service changes for EU-to-U.S. small parcel shipments citing U.S. de minimis changes. — 62%
• University of Michigan September 2025 preliminary Consumer Sentiment Index will be at least 3.0 points lower than the August 2025 final reading. — 55%

2025-08-25 — 86 items — newsletter

• By 2025-10-15, Keurig Dr Pepper will announce a definitive agreement to acquire JDE Peet’s in a transaction valued at $15 billion or more. — 48%
• By 2025-09-10, the Comet AI browser will publish a security advisory and release a patch addressing the August 2025 prompt-injection account-draining vulnerability. — 67%
• By 2025-09-07, Cloudflare will publish a detailed postmortem with root cause and corrective actions for the August 21, 2025 outage. — 72%
• A Starship integrated flight test (IFT-10) will lift off from Starbase, Texas by 2025-09-30 (mission outcome after liftoff not required). — 59%
• By 2025-09-30, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield (FRED: DGS10) will close at or below 3.95% on at least one trading day. — 55%
• From 2025-08-25 close to 2025-09-30 close, KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB) will underperform SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) by at least 4.0 percentage points based on adjusted close prices. — 58%
• By 2025-10-31, the U.S. 2s10s Treasury yield spread (FRED: DGS10 minus DGS2, daily close) will be positive (>0 bps) on at least three trading days. — 54%

2025-08-24 — 86 items — newsletter

• At the September 2025 FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve will lower the federal funds target range by at least 25 basis points. — 62%
• From 2025-08-24 close to 2025-09-30 close, iShares Russell 2000 (IWM) will outperform SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) by at least 2.5 percentage points based on adjusted close prices. — 56%
• U.S. total nonfarm payrolls change for August 2025 (preliminary) will be between +100,000 and +200,000 jobs. — 57%
• The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) will close above 22.5 at least once by 2025-09-30. — 56%
• ICE Brent front-month futures will settle at or above $94.00 per barrel at least once by 2025-10-15. — 55%
• By 2025-09-30, the ICE BofA US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread (FRED: BAMLH0A0HYM2) will be at least 30 basis points higher than on 2025-08-23. — 56%
• By 2025-10-31, the U.S. SEC will publish an Investor Alert or press release warning about unauthorized special purpose vehicles (SPVs) or secondary share sales related to private AI companies. — 55%

2025-08-23 — 133 items — newsletter

• By 2025-09-30, U.S. Customs and Border Protection will publish in the Federal Register an NPRM or interim final rule modifying de minimis treatment under 19 U.S.C. 1321. — 61%
• By 2025-10-15, at least one U.S. offshore wind project of ≥ 500 MW will be officially paused, canceled, or have permits suspended by a federal or state authority or by the developer citing regulatory action. — 60%
• University of Michigan September 2025 preliminary 1-year inflation expectations will print between 2.8% and 3.3%. — 57%
• By 2025-09-30, the U.S. 2s10s Treasury yield spread (DGS10 minus DGS2, FRED daily close) will be positive (>0 bps) on at least one trading day. — 56%
• From 2025-08-23 close to 2025-09-30 close, the iShares Transportation Average ETF (IYT) will underperform SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) by at least 2.0 percentage points based on adjusted close prices. — 56%
• By 2025-10-31, the White House will announce a nominee for Director of the Defense Intelligence Agency. — 65%
• From 2025-08-23 close to 2025-09-30 close, Alphabet (GOOGL) will outperform SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) by at least 3.0 percentage points based on adjusted close prices. — 57%

2025-08-22 — 138 items — newsletter

• USD/JPY spot will trade at or above 152.00 at least once by 2025-09-20 (UTC). — 57%
• U.S. PPI Final Demand m/m (seasonally adjusted) for August 2025 will print between 0.1% and 0.4%. — 58%
• From 2025-08-22 close to 2025-09-27 close, XLP will outperform XLY by at least 3.0 percentage points based on adjusted close prices. — 56%
• The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield (constant maturity) will close at or above 4.45% on at least one trading day by 2025-09-20. — 55%
• By 2025-09-30, at least one of TP-Link, Netgear, Asus, or Ubiquiti will publish a firmware update or security advisory explicitly addressing the August 2025 Dnsmasq cache-poisoning CVE. — 62%
• From 2025-08-22 close to 2025-09-30 close, Alphabet (GOOGL) will outperform Microsoft (MSFT) by at least 2.0 percentage points based on adjusted close prices. — 57%
• From 2025-08-22 close to 2025-09-30 close, Tesla (TSLA) will underperform QQQ by at least 4.0 percentage points based on adjusted close prices. — 56%

2025-08-21 — 143 items — newsletter

• The U.S. Core PCE price index (m/m, SA) for August 2025 will be between 0.1% and 0.3%. — 58%
• By 2025-09-12, the U.S. 2s10s Treasury yield spread (10Y minus 2Y, closing values) will be at least 8 basis points larger than on 2025-08-20. — 58%
• From 2025-08-21 close to 2025-09-26 close, XLU will outperform SPY by at least 2.0 percentage points based on adjusted close prices. — 56%
• By 2025-10-01, NYMEX Henry Hub natural gas front-month futures will settle at or above $3.10 per MMBtu at least once. — 55%
• By 2025-10-15, Intel will announce a strategic equity or equity-linked financing of at least $5 billion involving SoftBank Group or its affiliates, via an Intel press release or SEC filing. — 55%
• From 2025-08-21 00:00 UTC to 2025-09-30 00:00 UTC, Ethereum (ETH-USD) will outperform Bitcoin (BTC-USD) by at least 4.0 percentage points in USD return. — 57%
• By 2025-09-30, COMEX Gold (GC) front-month futures will settle at or above $2,600 per troy ounce at least once. — 56%

2025-08-20 — 131 items — newsletter

• By 2025-09-17, Ubuntu, Debian, and Red Hat will each publish a security advisory with fixed package versions addressing the newly disclosed Dnsmasq cache-poisoning vulnerability (CVE assigned August 2025). — 70%
• From 2025-08-20 close to 2025-09-20 close, the ETF HACK will outperform QQQ by at least 2.0 percentage points. — 56%
• By 2025-10-15, the U.S. Treasury (OFAC) will sanction at least one non-Russian entity or vessel for Russia oil price-cap evasion, explicitly cited in a Treasury press release. — 62%
• U.S. headline CPI (CPI-U, all items) for August 2025 will be 0.2% to 0.4% m/m (seasonally adjusted). — 58%
• By 2025-09-20, COMEX front-month copper (HG) will settle below $3.70/lb on at least one trading day. — 57%
• ICE Brent front-month settlement will close at or above $92.00/bbl at least once by 2025-10-01. — 55%
• By 2025-10-31, Nvidia will announce a China-compliant AI accelerator (new or modified model) designed to meet U.S. export rules, via an official Nvidia press release or SEC filing. — 61%

2025-08-19 — 127 items — newsletter

• The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) will close above 19.5 at least once by 2025-09-06. — 57%
• By 2025-08-30, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield will close at least 12 bps below its 2025-08-19 close. — 56%
• Bitcoin (BTC-USD) will trade intraday below $108,000 on Coinbase at least once by 2025-08-29. — 59%
• From 2025-08-19 close to 2025-09-13 close, Intel (INTC) will outperform the PHLX Semiconductor Index (SOX) by at least 5.0 percentage points. — 56%
• By 2025-10-15, at least one Fortune 500 company will disclose a material cybersecurity incident attributed to a third-party supplier or compromised open-source component. — 64%
• The U.S. national average regular gasoline price (AAA) will be at least $0.05/gal higher on 2025-09-02 than on 2025-08-19. — 54%
• By 2025-10-31, a China-based automaker will announce a new EV assembly plant or a manufacturing investment of at least $200 million outside China (e.g., EU, Mexico, Middle East). — 61%

2025-08-18 — 78 items — newsletter

• From 2025-08-18 close to 2025-08-26 close, the U.S. 2-year Treasury yield will move by at least 10 basis points in absolute terms. — 64%
• From 2025-08-18 close to 2025-08-29 close, ITB will underperform SPY by at least 2.0 percentage points. — 58%
• The U.S. Core CPI (CPI-U, all items less food and energy) for August 2025 will be 0.2% to 0.3% m/m (seasonally adjusted). — 56%
• The Freddie Mac PMMS 30-year fixed mortgage rate for the week ending 2025-09-19 will be at least 10 bps lower than the week ending 2025-08-15. — 60%
• Between 2025-08-21 and 2025-08-26 (inclusive), the S&P 500 will post at least one daily close-to-close decline of 1.25% or more. — 55%
• By 2025-10-31, at least one major U.S. bank (Amex, Chase, Citi, Capital One, or Bank of America) will announce an increased annual fee or a material benefit devaluation on a co-branded airline credit card. — 57%

2025-08-16 — 124 items — newsletter

• ICE Brent front-month settlement will close between $78 and $90 per barrel on 2025-09-16. — 65%
• At the September 2025 FOMC meeting, the Fed will change the target range by no more than 25 bps (i.e., either hold or adjust ±25 bps, not ≥50 bps). — 70%
• By 2025-10-31, at least two U.S.-listed tech IPOs (NYSE/Nasdaq) with IPO valuations ≥ $1B will close their first trading day ≥10% above offer price. — 60%
• From 2025-08-15 close to 2025-09-30 close, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) will underperform the S&P 500 by at least 3 percentage points. — 62%
• The MBA Refinance Index 4-week average for the week ending 2025-09-19 will be at least 10% higher than the 4-week average for the week ending 2025-08-15. — 66%
• California’s August 2025 unemployment rate will be at least 5.4% in the BLS state employment release. — 68%
• OpenAI will announce completion of a secondary share sale of at least $5B at an implied valuation between $450B and $550B by 2025-10-31. — 58%

2025-08-15 — 131 items — newsletter

• The price of oil will continue to experience fluctuations in the next month due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and uncertainty surrounding global demand, with a confidence of 75%. — 75%
• Tech stocks will face continued regulatory scrutiny in the next two weeks, leading to higher volatility in the market, with a confidence of 80%. — 80%
• Renewable energy stocks will maintain their outperformance over traditional energy sectors in the next month as more countries announce new green energy initiatives, with a confidence of 85%. — 85%
• The housing market will encounter ongoing challenges in the next three months as rising interest rates and supply chain disruptions continue to impact construction activity, with a confidence of 75%. — 75%
• The overall market index will exhibit fluctuations in the next three weeks as uncertainty surrounding global economic recovery and inflation concerns persist, influencing investor behavior, with a confidence of 80%. — 80%

2025-08-14 — 134 items — newsletter

• The price of oil will continue to experience fluctuations in the next month due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and uncertainty surrounding global demand, with a confidence of 70%. — 70%
• Tech stocks will face continued regulatory scrutiny in the next two weeks, leading to higher volatility in the market, with a confidence of 75%. — 75%
• Renewable energy stocks will maintain their outperformance over traditional energy sectors in the next month as more countries announce new green energy initiatives, with a confidence of 80%. — 80%
• The housing market will encounter ongoing challenges in the next three months as rising interest rates and supply chain disruptions continue to impact construction activity, with a confidence of 70%. — 70%
• The overall market index will exhibit fluctuations in the next three weeks as uncertainty surrounding global economic recovery and inflation concerns persist, influencing investor behavior, with a confidence of 75%. — 75%

2025-08-13 — 130 items — newsletter

• The price of oil will see further fluctuations in the next month due to uncertainty surrounding global demand and ongoing geopolitical tensions, with a confidence of 70%. — 70%
• Tech stocks will face continued regulatory scrutiny in the next two weeks, leading to higher volatility in the market, with a confidence of 75%. — 75%
• Renewable energy stocks will maintain their outperformance over traditional energy sectors in the next month as more countries announce new green energy initiatives, with a confidence of 80%. — 80%
• The housing market will encounter ongoing challenges in the next three months as rising interest rates and supply chain disruptions continue to impact construction activity, with a confidence of 70%. — 70%
• The overall market index will exhibit fluctuations in the next three weeks as uncertainty surrounding global economic recovery and inflation concerns persist, influencing investor behavior, with a confidence of 75%. — 75%

2025-08-12 — 129 items — newsletter

• The price of oil will continue to experience fluctuations in the next month due to uncertainty surrounding global demand and ongoing geopolitical tensions, with a confidence of 70%. — 70%
• Tech stocks will face increased regulatory scrutiny in the next two weeks, leading to higher volatility in the market, with a confidence of 75%. — 75%
• Renewable energy stocks will see a surge in performance over traditional energy sectors in the next month as more countries announce new green energy initiatives, with a confidence of 80%. — 80%
• The housing market will encounter challenges in the next three months as rising interest rates and supply chain disruptions continue to impact construction activity, with a confidence of 70%. — 70%
• The overall market index will exhibit fluctuations in the next three weeks as uncertainty surrounding global economic recovery and inflation concerns persist, influencing investor behavior, with a confidence of 75%. — 75%

2025-08-11 — 95 items — newsletter

• The price of oil will experience a slight increase in the next month as global demand picks up amidst ongoing supply chain disruptions and geopolitical tensions, with a confidence of 70%. — 70%
• Tech stocks will continue to face increased volatility in the next two weeks as regulatory scrutiny on big tech companies intensifies and market sentiment remains uncertain, with a confidence of 75%. — 75%
• Renewable energy stocks will maintain their outperformance over traditional energy sectors in the next month as more countries announce new green energy initiatives, with a confidence of 80%. — 80%
• The housing market will confront further challenges in the next three months due to rising interest rates and ongoing supply chain disruptions impacting construction activity, with a confidence of 70%. — 70%
• The overall market index will exhibit fluctuations in the next three weeks as uncertainties surrounding global economic recovery, inflation concerns, and geopolitical tensions persist, influencing investor behavior, with a confidence of 75%. — 75%

2025-08-10 — 78 items — newsletter

• The price of oil will see a slight increase in the next month as global demand picks up amidst ongoing supply chain disruptions and geopolitical tensions, with a confidence of 70%. — 70%
• Tech stocks will continue to face increased volatility in the next two weeks as regulatory scrutiny on big tech companies intensifies and market sentiment remains uncertain, with a confidence of 75%. — 75%
• Renewable energy stocks will maintain their outperformance over traditional energy sectors in the next month as more countries announce new green energy initiatives, with a confidence of 80%. — 80%
• The housing market will confront further challenges in the next three months due to rising interest rates and ongoing supply chain disruptions impacting construction activity, with a confidence of 70%. — 70%
• The overall market index will exhibit fluctuations in the next three weeks as uncertainties surrounding global economic recovery, inflation concerns, and geopolitical tensions persist, influencing investor behavior, with a confidence of 75%. — 75%

2025-08-09 — 118 items — newsletter

• The price of oil will experience a slight increase in the next month as global demand picks up amidst easing geopolitical tensions, with a confidence of 70%. — 70%
• Tech stocks will face increased volatility in the next two weeks as regulatory scrutiny on big tech companies intensifies and market sentiment shifts, with a confidence of 75%. — 75%
• Renewable energy stocks will continue to outperform traditional energy sectors in the next month as more countries announce new green energy initiatives and commit to reducing carbon emissions, with a confidence of 80%. — 80%
• The housing market will encounter further challenges in the next three months as interest rates remain elevated and supply chain disruptions persist, impacting construction activity, with a confidence of 70%. — 70%
• The overall market index will exhibit fluctuations in the next three weeks as uncertainties surrounding global economic recovery, inflation concerns, and geopolitical tensions continue to influence investor behavior, with a confidence of 75%. — 75%

2025-08-08 — 130 items — newsletter

• The price of oil will see a slight increase in the next month as global demand picks up amidst easing geopolitical tensions, with a confidence of 70%. — 70%
• Tech stocks will face increased volatility in the next two weeks as regulatory scrutiny on big tech companies intensifies and market sentiment shifts, with a confidence of 75%. — 75%
• Renewable energy stocks will continue to outperform traditional energy sectors in the next month as more countries announce new green energy initiatives and commit to reducing carbon emissions, with a confidence of 80%. — 80%
• The housing market will encounter further challenges in the next three months as interest rates remain elevated and supply chain disruptions persist, impacting construction activity, with a confidence of 70%. — 70%
• The overall market index will exhibit fluctuations in the next three weeks as uncertainties surrounding global economic recovery, inflation concerns, and geopolitical tensions continue to influence investor behavior, with a confidence of 75%. — 75%

2025-08-07 — 133 items — newsletter

• The price of oil will see a moderate decrease in the next month as global supply surpasses demand and OPEC nations continue to increase production, with a confidence of 75%. — 75%
• Tech stocks will experience a minor correction in the next two weeks following a period of rapid growth and concerns over regulatory scrutiny on big tech companies, with a confidence of 70%. — 70%
• Renewable energy stocks will continue to outperform traditional energy sectors in the next month as governments worldwide announce new green energy initiatives and allocate more funding towards clean energy projects, with a confidence of 80%. — 80%
• The housing market will face further challenges in the next three months as interest rates continue to rise and construction costs remain high due to supply chain disruptions and labor shortages, with a confidence of 70%. — 70%
• The overall market index will exhibit increased volatility in the next three weeks as uncertainties around global economic recovery, inflation concerns, and ongoing geopolitical tensions remain elevated, with a confidence of 75%. — 75%

2025-08-06 — 130 items — newsletter

• The price of oil will see a moderate decrease in the next month as global supply surpasses demand and geopolitical tensions ease, with a confidence of 75%. — 75%
• Tech stocks will experience a minor correction in the next two weeks following a period of rapid growth and investor profit-taking, with a confidence of 70%. — 70%
• Renewable energy stocks will continue to outperform traditional energy sectors in the next month as governments announce new green energy initiatives and funding programs, with a confidence of 80%. — 80%
• The housing market will face further challenges in the next three months as interest rates continue to rise and supply chain disruptions persist, with a confidence of 70%. — 70%
• The overall market index will exhibit increased volatility in the next three weeks as uncertainty surrounding global economic recovery and inflation concerns remain elevated, with a confidence of 75%. — 75%

2025-08-05 — 129 items — newsletter

• The price of oil will see a significant decrease in the next month due to a sudden surplus in global supply and easing geopolitical tensions, with a confidence of 70%. — 70%
• Tech stocks will experience a minor correction in the next two weeks following a period of rapid growth and investor profit-taking, with a confidence of 75%. — 75%
• Renewable energy stocks will continue to outperform traditional energy sectors in the next month as governments announce new green energy initiatives and funding programs, with a confidence of 80%. — 80%
• The housing market will face further challenges in the next three months as interest rates continue to rise and supply chain disruptions persist, with a confidence of 70%. — 70%
• The overall market index will exhibit increased volatility in the next three weeks as uncertainty surrounding global economic recovery and inflation concerns remain elevated, with a confidence of 75%. — 75%

2025-08-04 — 86 items — newsletter

• The price of oil will see a moderate increase in the next two months due to ongoing supply chain disruptions and geopolitical tensions in key oil-producing regions, with a confidence of 75%. — 75%
• Tech stocks will maintain their positive momentum in the next month following continued innovation in the sector and positive earnings reports from major tech companies, with a confidence of 80%. — 80%
• Renewable energy stocks will outperform traditional energy sectors in the next three weeks as governments worldwide announce new green energy initiatives and focus on promoting sustainable energy solutions, with a confidence of 85%. — 85%
• The market index will face increased volatility in the next month as uncertainty surrounding global economic recovery persists and inflation concerns continue to affect investor sentiment, with a confidence of 70%. — 70%
• The housing market will encounter continued challenges in the next four months due to rising interest rates, persistent supply chain disruptions impacting construction, and affordability concerns, with a confidence of 70%. — 70%

2025-08-03 — 93 items — newsletter

• The price of oil will continue to rise in the next two months due to ongoing supply chain disruptions and increased global demand, with a confidence of 75%. — 75%
• Tech stocks will maintain their positive momentum in the next three weeks following a series of favorable earnings reports from key tech companies, with a confidence of 80%. — 80%
• Renewable energy stocks will outperform traditional energy sectors in the next month as governments worldwide intensify efforts to promote sustainable energy solutions, with a confidence of 85%. — 85%
• The market index will face increased volatility in the next month as uncertainty surrounding global economic recovery persists and geopolitical tensions escalate, with a confidence of 70%. — 70%
• The housing market will encounter continued challenges in the next four months due to rising interest rates and persistent supply chain disruptions impacting construction, with a confidence of 70%. — 70%

2025-08-02 — 137 items — newsletter

• The price of oil will see a moderate increase in the next three months due to growing global demand and ongoing supply chain disruptions, with a confidence of 70%. — 70%
• Renewable energy stocks will continue to outperform traditional energy sectors in the coming weeks as governments worldwide focus on promoting sustainable energy solutions, with a confidence of 80%. — 80%
• Tech stocks will experience a surge in the next month following positive earnings reports from major tech companies and increased innovation in the sector, with a confidence of 75%. — 75%
• The housing market will face continued challenges in the next six months due to rising interest rates and ongoing supply chain disruptions impacting construction, with a confidence of 65%. — 65%
• The market index will see fluctuations in the next month as uncertainty surrounding global economic recovery persists and geopolitical tensions impact investor sentiment, with a confidence of 70%. — 70%

2025-08-01 — 133 items — newsletter

• The market index will see a slight decrease in the next month due to concerns over inflation and supply chain disruptions, with a confidence of 75%. — 75%
• Technology stocks will continue to outperform traditional industries in the coming weeks as companies focus on innovation and digital transformation, with a confidence of 80%. — 80%
• The price of gold will experience a temporary dip in the next two months as investors shift towards riskier assets in search of higher returns, with a confidence of 70%. — 70%
• Renewable energy stocks will continue to gain momentum following new government incentives aimed at promoting sustainable energy solutions, with a confidence of 85%. — 85%
• The housing market will face challenges in the next six months due to rising interest rates and ongoing supply chain disruptions impacting construction, with a confidence of 65%. — 65%

2025-07-31 — 124 items — newsletter

• The market index will see a slight decrease in the next month due to concerns over the impact of rising interest rates on economic growth, with a confidence of 70%. — 70%
• Technology stocks will continue to outperform traditional industries in the coming weeks as companies prioritize digital transformation initiatives, with a confidence of 80%. — 80%
• The price of gold will see a temporary dip in the next two months as investors shift towards riskier assets in search of higher returns, with a confidence of 75%. — 75%
• Renewal energy stocks will experience a surge in demand following new government incentives aimed at promoting sustainable energy solutions, with a confidence of 85%. — 85%
• The housing market will face challenges in the next six months due to supply chain disruptions impacting construction and affordability concerns, with a confidence of 65%. — 65%

2025-07-30 — 133 items — newsletter

• The market index will continue to fluctuate in the next month as uncertainty surrounding global economic recovery persists, with a confidence of 70%. — 70%
• Technology stocks will experience a boost in the coming weeks following positive earnings reports from major tech companies, with a confidence of 75%. — 75%
• The price of gold will see a gradual increase over the next three months as inflation concerns and geopolitical tensions remain prevalent, with a confidence of 80%. — 80%
• Renewable energy stocks will receive further attention from investors as governments worldwide announce new green energy initiatives, with a confidence of 85%. — 85%
• The housing market will face challenges due to rising interest rates and supply chain disruptions impacting construction, with a confidence of 65%. — 65%

2025-07-29 — 137 items — newsletter

• The market index will experience a slight decline in the next month due to concerns over the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, with a confidence of 75%. — 75%
• Tech stocks will outperform traditional industries in the coming weeks as companies continue to innovate and introduce new technologies, with a confidence of 80%. — 80%
• The price of gold will see a temporary dip in the next three months as geopolitical tensions ease in key regions, with a confidence of 70%. — 70%
• Renewable energy stocks will receive a significant boost following the announcement of new environmental regulations by the government, with a confidence of 85%. — 85%
• The housing market will continue to face challenges in the next six months due to fluctuating interest rates and inflation concerns, with a confidence of 65%. — 65%

2025-07-28 — 79 items — newsletter

• The market index will see a boost following positive developments in trade negotiations between major global economies within the next three months, with a confidence of 70%. — 70%
• Tech stocks will outperform traditional industries after the release of groundbreaking advancements in artificial intelligence technology, with a confidence of 80%. — 80%
• The price of gold will experience a steady increase over the next six months as geopolitical tensions escalate in key regions, with a confidence of 85%. — 85%
• The demand for renewable energy stocks will surge following new government incentives aimed at combating climate change, with a confidence of 75%. — 75%
• The housing market will face a downturn due to rising interest rates and inflation concerns in the next year, with a confidence of 60%. — 60%

2025-07-27 — 85 items — newsletter

• The market index will experience a 10% correction within the next six months due to geopolitical tensions arising from corruption cases in Russia and EU aid cuts to Ukraine. - 70% confidence — 10%
• The retirement investment in the S&P 500 will underperform compared to a diversified portfolio of international stocks over the next year. - 80% confidence — 80%
• Houston's Astrodome will be repurposed for commercial use within the next five years as it fails to attract public interest in its current state. - 60% confidence — 60%
• Parents will increase contributions to college savings plans by 15% in the next two years due to rising concerns about the affordability of higher education. - 75% confidence — 15%
• The market value of cheese products will experience a temporary surge following the passing of James Leprino, as investors speculate on potential shifts in the industry. - 90% confidence — 90%

2025-07-26 — 20 items — newsletter

• The S&P 500 will hit another record high after the upcoming trade meeting, with a confidence of 75%. — 75%
• Tesla's 'friends and family' car service in California will see a 50% increase in usage within the first month of its launch. — 50%
• India banning lesser-known streaming apps will lead to a 60% decrease in overall viewership in the country. — 60%
• The release of $5.5 billion for schools by the White House will result in a 90% increase in educational resources and infrastructure improvements. — 90%
• Concerns over Trump pardoning Ghislaine Maxwell will cause a 70% decrease in public approval ratings for the President. — 70%

2025-07-25 — 2 items — newsletter

• Food brands will struggle to maintain their appeal on Wall Street as consumer demand drops by 70%. — 70%
• PayPal stock will continue its winning streak with a 80% confidence level, while AutoNation will continue to beat sales estimates at 75% confidence. — 80%
• The acquisition of Paramount by Skydance will raise doubts about business improvement, with a 60% confidence level. — 60%
• The tension between Trump and Powell will lead to increased market volatility with a 90% confidence level. — 90%
• The US rare raid in Syria will have a significant impact on the stock market with a 75% confidence level. — 75%

2025-07-20 — 71 items — newsletter

• The U.S. stock market will outperform emerging global markets by the end of the year with 75% confidence. — 75%
• The W.N.B.A. star fined for sneakers will see a 10% increase in shoe sales following the incident with 60% confidence. — 10%
• Federal workers who were fired will experience a 25% decrease in their household income within six months with 80% confidence. — 25%
• Americans will spend 15% more on coffee due to rising prices in the next year with 70% confidence. — 15%
• Investors betting on ETFs against U.S. Treasury bonds will see a 5% increase in ROI by the end of the quarter with 85% confidence. — 5%

2025-07-19 — 96 items — newsletter

• American Express earnings will continue to show robust spending in various categories, with a confidence level of 80%. — 80%
• Concerns about long-run inflation in the bond market will increase, with a confidence level of 70%. — 70%
• Block's stock will continue to climb after entering the S&P 500, with a confidence level of 85%. — 85%
• Microsoft will successfully remove reliance on Chinese engineers for Pentagon support, with a confidence level of 75%. — 75%
• Trump's lawsuit against Murdoch over the WSJ story and request to unseal Epstein and Maxwell transcripts will face legal challenges, with a confidence level of 60%. — 60%

2025-07-18 — 63 items — newsletter

• The price of Cryptocurrencies will increase by 20% within the next month due to the passage of the Genius Act and three regulatory bills in Congress. — 20%
• The Dow Jones Industrial Average will decrease by 15% in the next quarter amid increasing evidence on vaping risks and FDA approval of Juul vapes. — 15%
• Tesla stock will rise by 10% in the next three months following Elon Musk clearing final obstacles for Tesla in India. — 10%
• The value of the US Dollar will decrease by 5% against major currencies in the next six months due to Trump's policy on China's costs. — 5%
• The California real estate market will experience a 5% downturn in the next year as a result of the state aiming to counter Texas on redistricting. — 5%

2025-07-17 — 95 items — newsletter

• Prediction: BlackRock's stock will continue to rally despite ongoing significant client redemption. — 80%
• Prediction: Seven & i shares in Japan will continue to plummet as investors react to Couche-Tard's withdrawal of the acquisition bid. — 90%
• Prediction: Gaslight-driven development will become a more widely discussed topic in the software development community, leading to increased awareness and potential shifts in industry practices. — 70%

2025-07-15 — 20 items — newsletter

• Prediction: Developing countries will continue to face challenges in economic development in the next decade, with a 75% confidence level.
• Prediction: Tariffs will not have a significant impact on inflation in the next year, with a 90% confidence level.
• Prediction: Free-market economics will continue to be effective in driving economic growth in the near future, with an 80% confidence level.