Foresight Forge - Prediction Log

2026-01-10 — 24 items — newsletter

• U.S. Census Bureau will report multifamily (5+ units) housing starts exceeding single-family housing starts in at least one monthly New Residential Construction release, by 2026-12-31. — 48%
• S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index will show year-over-year growth at or below 0.0% in at least one monthly release, by 2026-12-31. — 40%
• The European Commission will open a formal trade-defense investigation (anti-subsidy or anti-dumping) targeting imports from China of either (a) lithium-ion batteries/energy-storage systems or (b) wind turbines/major wind components, by 2026-06-30. — 55%
• The Netherlands or Japan will publish a new or expanded export-control measure that adds licensing restrictions specifically covering immersion DUV lithography systems (or their critical modules/service) to destinations including China/Hong Kong, by 2026-09-30. — 42%
• A U.S. federal agency will announce awards/contracts totaling at least $500 million for purchases to build a strategic stockpile/reserve of critical minerals (e.g., lithium, nickel, cobalt, graphite, rare earths), by 2026-12-31. — 35%
• At least two of OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, or xAI will reduce the list price of their flagship general-purpose model API by at least 30% (per input-token or per 1M input tokens) versus their 2026-01-10 pricing, by 2026-12-31. — 60%
• The Nasdaq-100 index (NDX) will experience a peak-to-trough closing drawdown of at least 20% at some point during 2026, by 2026-12-31. — 45%
• Visa or Mastercard will publicly launch an 'agentic payments' pilot/product that allows an AI agent to initiate transactions under user-defined authorization limits (e.g., spend caps/merchant whitelists) with at least one named major merchant or wallet partner, by 2026-12-31. — 40%
• A U.S. federal permitting reform bill that imposes statutory time limits of 2 years or less for completion of NEPA environmental reviews for at least one class of major projects will be enacted (signed into law), by 2026-09-30. — 32%
• PJM or MISO will submit a FERC compliance filing implementing a long-term regional transmission planning process with a planning horizon of at least 15 years and an explicit benefits-based cost-allocation method, by 2026-09-30. — 55%

2026-01-09 — 143 items — newsletter

• BLS will report U.S. Dec 2025 nonfarm payroll employment growth between +100,000 and +225,000 (inclusive) AND an unemployment rate between 3.7% and 4.0% (inclusive). — 42%
• China’s PBoC will announce at least one reserve-requirement ratio (RRR) cut of at least 25 bps for banks by 2026-06-30. — 46%
• The White House/DOD FY2027 budget request will propose total U.S. national defense budget authority of at least $1.05 trillion (USD). — 38%
• A senior U.S. administration economic official (President, Treasury Secretary, NEC Director, or FHFA Director) will publicly endorse a plan to purchase at least $100 billion of agency MBS (mortgage-backed securities) to lower mortgage rates, by 2026-06-30. — 33%
• GM will lower (cut) its previously stated 2026 capital expenditure guidance by at least $2.0B in a quarterly earnings release/call or an SEC filing, by 2026-07-31. — 47%
• NetBlocks (or Cloudflare Radar) will report an Iran-wide internet connectivity disruption of at least 50% lasting 12+ consecutive hours, by 2026-03-31. — 57%
• Ukraine’s NABU (National Anti-Corruption Bureau) or SAPO will publicly confirm opening a formal proceeding/investigation referencing the major Ukrainian lithium project award reported as linked to Trump-associated investors, by 2026-06-30. — 28%
• A U.S. government entity (DFC, EXIM, DOE, or State Department) will announce financing/insurance/grant support totaling at least $100 million (USD) for a Greenland-based critical minerals or rare-earths project, by 2026-09-30. — 26%
• A U.S. federal science agency (NSF, NOAA, or DOE) will award or announce competitive funding totaling at least $20 million for ocean alkalinity enhancement / “antacids for the sea” style ocean carbon removal research, by 2026-12-31. — 36%
• NASA’s Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel (ASAP) will explicitly reference the expedited Crew-11 return due to a medical issue in a publicly posted meeting transcript, minutes, or presentation, by 2026-03-31. — 44%

2026-01-08 — 148 items — newsletter

• Alphabet (GOOGL) will close with a larger market capitalization than Apple (AAPL) for at least 10 consecutive U.S. trading sessions, by 2026-06-30 (UTC). — 40%
• Anthropic will be credibly reported (e.g., Reuters/Bloomberg/FT/WSJ/CNBC) to have closed a new funding round raising at least $7.5B (USD) at a post-money valuation of at least $250B, by 2026-06-30 (UTC). — 45%
• Apple will publish an Apple Card customer notice and/or updated Apple Card terms that explicitly name JPMorgan Chase (or an affiliated JPMorgan issuer bank) as the new issuer/servicer replacing Goldman Sachs, by 2026-09-30 (UTC). — 55%
• The U.S. HHS Office for Civil Rights (OCR) will publicly open an investigation, issue a notice of inquiry, or announce a compliance action that explicitly references OpenAI’s ChatGPT Health (or OpenAI’s consumer health-record integration) and privacy/security obligations, by 2026-12-31 (UTC). — 30%
• Character.AI will roll out a U.S.-facing, product-default age-assurance control that includes either ID verification or selfie/biometric age estimation for users who declare they are under 18 (or for all users), by 2026-06-30 (UTC). — 35%
• A bill will be introduced in either chamber of the U.S. Congress that restricts single-family home purchases by large institutional investors, defining eligibility using an ownership threshold of 50+ single-family homes (or an equivalent numeric threshold), by 2026-03-31 (UTC). — 60%
• The U.S. Department of Defense will issue a formal written policy (memo, DFARS proposed rule, or contract clause guidance) that conditions at least one category of defense contracting eligibility or evaluation on limits to dividends and/or share buybacks, by 2026-06-30 (UTC). — 35%
• BLS will report U.S. JOLTS job openings (seasonally adjusted) below 7.5 million in at least one monthly release, by 2026-07-07 (UTC). — 50%
• The U.S. federal government (EPA, FEMA, HHS/CDC, or HUD) will announce a competitive grant program totaling at least $500 million aimed at wildfire-smoke exposure mitigation (e.g., indoor air filtration, clean air shelters, smoke forecasting/monitoring), by 2026-09-30 (UTC). — 40%

2026-01-07 — 130 items — newsletter

• U.S. Commerce (BIS) will publish a new or revised export-control rule that adds explicit license requirements or tighter performance thresholds for exporting Nvidia H200-class (or newer) AI accelerators to China (including via Hong Kong), by 2026-09-30 (UTC). — 42%
• The U.S. FTC will publicly confirm opening an investigation or compulsory process (CID) into Amazon’s AI shopping tool practices (e.g., scraping, steering, unfair competition), by 2026-06-30 (UTC). — 33%
• A top-20 U.S. e-commerce retailer (by U.S. online sales) will file a lawsuit in U.S. federal court against Amazon alleging unlawful scraping, unfair competition, or tortious interference linked to Amazon’s AI shopping tool, by 2026-09-30 (UTC). — 37%
• Meta will officially resume and announce a broad international retail rollout (outside the U.S.) of Ray-Ban Display glasses (or a directly successor SKU) in at least two new countries, by 2026-05-31 (UTC). — 54%
• xAI will publicly commit to (or be credibly reported to have placed) a single order or multi-year agreement for at least 50,000 Nvidia H200/H300-class GPUs (or equivalent top-tier AI accelerators), by 2026-12-31 (UTC). — 46%
• A major brokerage (CBRE, JLL, Cushman & Wakefield, Savills, or Colliers) will report Manhattan office leasing volume in 2026 Q2 at least 10% higher than 2025 Q2, by 2026-07-31 (UTC). — 44%
• TrendForce (or another widely cited pricing tracker such as DRAMeXchange) will report that the contract price for mainstream server DRAM (e.g., DDR5 RDIMM) is at least 20% higher in 2026 Q2 than in 2026 Q1, by 2026-07-31 (UTC). — 53%
• The U.S. Department of Energy Loan Programs Office (LPO) will issue a conditional commitment of at least $1.0B for a small modular reactor (SMR) project in the U.S., by 2026-12-31 (UTC). — 29%
• Commonwealth Fusion Systems (CFS) will announce (or be credibly reported to have scheduled) a first-plasma target date for SPARC within 12 months, by 2026-06-30 (UTC). — 41%

2026-01-06 — 138 items — newsletter

• The UN Security Council will hold (and publish an official meeting record for) an emergency meeting specifically focused on the U.S. operation in Venezuela and the capture/detention of Nicolás Maduro, by 2026-02-15 (UTC). — 62%
• The European Commission will open a formal Digital Services Act (DSA) proceeding/investigation against X (Twitter) that explicitly references AI-generated child sexual abuse material (CSAM) or sexualized deepfakes produced via Grok/xAI, by 2026-06-30 (UTC). — 47%
• NetBlocks (or an equivalent widely cited monitoring group such as Cloudflare Radar) will report a Venezuela-wide internet connectivity disruption of at least 50% lasting 12+ consecutive hours, by 2026-03-31 (UTC). — 41%
• ICE Brent front-month will settle at or above $95.00/bbl on at least one trading day, by 2026-06-30 (UTC). — 36%
• At least one major container carrier (Maersk, MSC, CMA CGM, Hapag-Lloyd, or ONE) will publicly announce a resumption of routine Bab el-Mandeb/Red Sea transits after previously avoiding/suspending the route for 30+ consecutive days due to security risk, by 2026-06-30 (UTC). — 44%
• BOEM (or the U.S. Department of the Interior) will publish new or revised financial assurance/bonding guidance for offshore wind that materially increases required bonding/guarantees (e.g., explicit higher per-MW or per-project security requirements) for at least one permitting stage, by 2026-06-30 (UTC). — 40%
• NHTSA will open a formal safety defect investigation (ODI) into a commercial driverless/robotaxi service operated in the U.S. (e.g., Waymo, Zoox, or similar) that cites a crash or near-miss incident occurring in 2026, by 2026-12-31 (UTC). — 52%
• A top-3 U.S. pharmacy benefit manager (CVS Caremark, Express Scripts, or Optum Rx) will announce national formulary coverage (not just case-by-case exceptions) for Novo Nordisk’s oral GLP-1 obesity pill for chronic weight management, effective for at least one 2027 plan year offering, by 2026-09-30 (UTC). — 43%
• NSIDC (or an equivalent authoritative source such as NOAA/NASA) will report that the 2026 Arctic sea-ice annual minimum extent ranks among the 5 lowest observed in the satellite record, by 2026-10-31 (UTC). — 46%

2026-01-05 — 85 items — newsletter

• Denmark will publicly confirm it has formally summoned (or demanded an urgent meeting with) the U.S. ambassador in Copenhagen in response to U.S. statements about seizing/controlling Greenland, by 2026-02-28 (UTC). — 48%
• Denmark will announce an additional Arctic/Greenland defense and surveillance funding package totaling at least DKK 10 billion (newly allocated, not previously budgeted), by 2026-06-30 (UTC). — 42%
• France’s CNIL (or another French national authority) will publicly open a formal investigation or procedure (e.g., 'mise en demeure' or equivalent) into xAI/Grok specifically referencing AI-generated sexualized deepfakes, by 2026-06-30 (UTC). — 35%
• Malaysia’s communications regulator (MCMC) will issue a written compliance directive or formal notice to xAI referencing Grok and requiring specific mitigations for sexualized deepfakes (e.g., blocking prompts, reporting tools, or age-gating), by 2026-04-30 (UTC). — 40%
• At least one major container carrier (Maersk, MSC, CMA CGM, Hapag-Lloyd, or ONE) will publicly announce a suspension/avoidance of Bab el-Mandeb/Red Sea transits for at least 7 consecutive days due to security incidents, by 2026-06-30 (UTC). — 46%
• The U.S. Department of Energy will announce an SPR crude oil release/sale totaling at least 10 million barrels explicitly citing supply disruption or price spikes linked to Venezuela instability, by 2026-03-31 (UTC). — 32%
• AAA’s U.S. national average retail price for regular gasoline will exceed $4.00/gal on at least one day, by 2026-06-30 (UTC). — 38%
• China’s EAST (or another named Chinese fusion device) will be reported by a credible outlet (e.g., Xinhua, CCTV, Nature/Science/PRL press coverage) to have achieved a new sustained high-confinement plasma duration of at least 1,000 seconds, by 2026-12-31 (UTC). — 28%
• A U.S. federal agency will announce a competitive grant/funding program totaling at least $250 million specifically targeting advanced plastics recycling or 'design for degradability' materials (beyond routine formula funding), by 2026-09-30 (UTC). — 34%

2026-01-04 — 79 items — newsletter

• The U.S. House or Senate will hold a floor vote on a War Powers Resolution or an explicit Authorization for Use of Military Force (AUMF) resolution that specifically references Venezuela or the operation that captured Nicolás Maduro, by 2026-03-31 (UTC). — 55%
• OFAC will issue a revised or new Venezuela-related General License (or equivalent written guidance) that materially changes authorization for U.S. persons’ oil/gas transactions with PDVSA or named Venezuela state entities, by 2026-04-30 (UTC). — 50%
• A regional multilateral body (OAS, CELAC, or UNASUR successor framework) will publish a joint communique/resolution on Venezuela that is signed or supported by at least 10 Latin American/Caribbean sovereign governments and explicitly references the U.S. strike/capture of Maduro, by 2026-02-28 (UTC). — 45%
• Commercial flight restrictions or major carrier reroutings tied to Venezuelan airspace/safety disruptions will persist for at least 14 consecutive days (measured by continuous advisory status or sustained cancellations/reroutes by major carriers), by 2026-02-15 (UTC). — 40%
• Venezuela’s seaborne crude and condensate exports will be at least 25% lower in any full calendar month in 2026 Q1 than the average of Nov–Dec 2025, as reported by at least one of Kpler, Vortexa, or TankerTrackers, by 2026-04-30 (UTC). — 55%
• The U.S. President will issue at least one additional public divestment/unwind order (via CFIUS-related authority) targeting a China-linked investment in a U.S. semiconductor or semiconductor-equipment company, by 2026-09-30 (UTC). — 35%
• China’s DRAM maker CXMT will file publicly viewable IPO documents (prospectus/filing notice) for a listing (STAR Market, Shenzhen, Hong Kong, or comparable venue) that targets gross proceeds of at least $3.0 billion (USD-equivalent) or explicitly cites a $3.0B+ fundraising goal, by 2026-12-31 (UTC). — 45%
• A major outlet (Reuters, Bloomberg, FT, WSJ, or CNBC) will report that tech founders/executives (at least 5 individuals) collectively sold at least $7.5 billion of public-company stock in 2026 H1, based on Form 4 or equivalent disclosures, by 2026-07-31 (UTC). — 50%
• BLS will report that U.S. core goods CPI (commodities less food and energy, seasonally adjusted) is positive year-over-year (>0.0%) in at least one monthly CPI release, by 2026-09-30 (UTC). — 45%
• CDC (or a CDC-supported U.S. guideline body) will publish updated U.S. gonorrhea treatment guidance that includes a newly approved oral antibiotic (e.g., gepotidacin or zoliflodacin) as a recommended regimen or listed alternative, by 2026-12-31 (UTC). — 30%

2026-01-03 — 109 items — newsletter

• A U.S. federal judge will grant Ørsted (or its U.S. subsidiary) a temporary restraining order or preliminary injunction that pauses or blocks the Trump administration’s halt/suspension of the Revolution Wind project, by 2026-02-28 (UTC). — 35%
• The U.S. Department of the Interior (including BOEM) will issue a formal directive/memo or Federal Register notice imposing a new pause or suspension of offshore-wind leasing/permitting actions lasting at least 60 days, by 2026-04-30 (UTC). — 45%
• The U.S. Treasury (OFAC) will announce an Iran-related sanctions package designating at least 10 individuals and/or entities in a single action, explicitly tied to protest suppression/human-rights abuses, by 2026-03-31 (UTC). — 55%
• The U.S. Department of Justice will publicly announce a civil forfeiture/seizure action involving a named oil tanker (by name/IMO) for sanctions evasion or related violations, by 2026-06-30 (UTC). — 32%
• Tesla will announce a company-wide workforce reduction of at least 7% (or at least 10,000 roles) by 2026-06-30 (UTC). — 40%
• Tesla will implement MSRP reductions of at least 5% on at least two distinct models in the U.S. in a single coordinated announcement (same day), by 2026-06-30 (UTC). — 42%
• Saks Global (or a primary operating affiliate) will file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in the U.S., by 2026-06-30 (UTC). — 30%
• India’s MeitY (or another Indian central authority) will issue a formal written compliance order/notice to xAI referencing Grok and requiring specific safeguards or takedowns related to child sexual content, by 2026-03-31 (UTC). — 60%
• A bipartisan bill will be introduced in the U.S. Senate to reform the National Emergencies Act by requiring congressional approval to extend a declared national emergency beyond 60 days, by 2026-03-31 (UTC). — 50%

2026-01-02 — 87 items — newsletter

• Finland’s National Bureau of Investigation (NBI) or Finnish prosecutors will publicly announce criminal suspicion/charges (e.g., sabotage or aggravated criminal damage) against a named vessel and/or at least one crew member in connection with the Dec 2025 Finland–Estonia undersea cable damage, by 2026-03-31 (UTC). — 45%
• NATO will announce a new Baltic Sea maritime operation or task force explicitly focused on protecting undersea critical infrastructure (cables/pipelines), with a named operation/initiative and participating allies, by 2026-03-31 (UTC). — 50%
• At least one U.S. state public utility commission will open a formal docket/rulemaking specifically addressing data-center load growth (or creating a new large-load tariff class) that explicitly mentions AI/data centers as the driver, by 2026-06-30 (UTC). — 55%
• At least one major European bank (HSBC, Santander, BNP Paribas, SocGen, Deutsche Bank, Barclays, UBS, UniCredit, or ING) will announce a restructuring plan that includes at least 7,500 net job cuts (or planned role eliminations) and explicitly cites AI/automation/digitalization as a driver, by 2026-12-31 (UTC). — 40%
• The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) will leave its monetary policy settings unchanged (no re-centering or slope change) at its next scheduled policy decision in 2026 H1, by 2026-04-30 (UTC). — 60%
• A bill will be introduced in the U.S. Congress to permanently exclude discharged/forgiven student-loan balances from federal taxable income (i.e., making student-loan forgiveness tax-free beyond temporary provisions), by 2026-06-30 (UTC). — 55%
• CMS (or HHS) will issue a proposed rule or formal Medicare policy guidance that would expand or clarify Medicare Part D coverage pathways for FDA-approved anti-obesity drugs (GLP-1s) for weight loss (not solely diabetes), by 2026-12-31 (UTC). — 30%
• BYD will announce China-wide MSRP reductions (or new lower-priced trims positioned as price cuts) of at least 5% on at least 3 distinct passenger-vehicle models in a single coordinated announcement, by 2026-06-30 (UTC). — 50%
• The Nasdaq Composite will close at least 15% below its highest close of 2026 at least once, by 2026-09-30 (UTC). — 45%

2026-01-01 — 105 items — newsletter

• Neither of President Trump’s two 2025-12 infrastructure/water-project vetoes will be overridden by Congress (i.e., no successful 2/3 vote in both chambers) by 2026-04-30 (UTC). — 70%
• Venezuela will release at least one U.S. citizen detained in 2025 (publicly identified by U.S. officials or major media as detained) following a publicly acknowledged diplomatic engagement, by 2026-06-30 (UTC). — 45%
• The UK will announce a Russia-related sanctions action adding at least 50 oil tankers/vessels (by name/IMO) to its sanctions list in a single package, by 2026-03-31 (UTC). — 60%
• U.S. Commerce (BIS) will add at least 5 China- or Hong Kong-based entities to the Entity List in a single rule/action explicitly citing Nvidia GPU smuggling/diversion or 'advanced computing' export-control evasion, by 2026-06-30 (UTC). — 50%
• The PBOC will cut either (a) the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) for banks or (b) a key policy rate (7-day reverse repo or 1-year MLF) at least once, by 2026-03-31 (UTC). — 55%
• CME will raise initial margin requirements for at least one major precious-metals futures contract (COMEX gold or COMEX silver) by at least 10% in a single announced change, by 2026-03-31 (UTC). — 40%
• At least one venture-backed European alternative-protein company (excluding insect-farming) that has raised ≥$100 million in disclosed funding will enter formal insolvency/liquidation/administration proceedings, by 2026-12-31 (UTC). — 35%
• The Netherlands will issue at least one formal decision blocking or ordering divestment/unwinding of a China-linked acquisition/investment in a Dutch semiconductor or semiconductor-equipment company under national security/investment screening powers, by 2026-12-31 (UTC). — 30%

2025-12-31 — 107 items — newsletter

• The U.S. (White House, DoD, or State) will publicly announce a pause, suspension, or reduction of at least $1.0 billion (USD) in planned Ukraine security assistance (weapons/munitions/training), by 2026-03-31 (UTC). — 45%
• Israel will formally suspend, revoke, or deny renewal of authorization/registration for at least one major international humanitarian NGO operating in Gaza (excluding UNRWA), with the NGO publicly confirming disruption of Gaza operations due to the Israeli action, by 2026-06-30 (UTC). — 50%
• The U.S. Treasury (OFAC) will announce a Venezuela-related sanctions package designating at least 20 individuals/entities in a single action (same press release/date), by 2026-03-31 (UTC). — 40%
• OpenAI will close and publicly confirm (or be credibly reported by Reuters/Bloomberg/FT/WSJ) a new debt financing and/or revolving credit facility totaling at least $5.0 billion (USD) in committed amount, by 2026-09-30 (UTC). — 55%
• Meta will launch a broadly available (not invite-only) consumer-facing AI agent in the U.S. that can autonomously execute at least one multi-step task (e.g., plan-and-book, shop-and-checkout, or schedule-and-confirm) across third-party websites or services, by 2026-06-30 (UTC). — 48%
• At least one major publicly traded China-focused EV maker (NIO, XPeng, Li Auto, Zeekr/Geely, Leapmotor, or BYD) will announce a single workforce reduction of at least 10% (or at least 10,000 employees) in a press release, filing, or Reuters/Bloomberg report citing the company, by 2026-06-30 (UTC). — 60%
• NetBlocks (or a comparably cited internet-monitoring organization) will report a nationwide disruption in Iran reducing internet connectivity by at least 50% for 24+ consecutive hours, with major international media attribution to unrest/security measures, by 2026-06-30 (UTC). — 38%
• The Federal Reserve will cut the federal funds target range at least once (a reduction in either/both bounds) in any scheduled 2026 FOMC meeting, by 2026-12-31 (UTC). — 65%
• South Africa’s government (DMRE/IPP Office) will award (preferred bidders announced) at least 2.0 GW of new utility-scale solar PV capacity in a single procurement round (or combined announcement explicitly tied to one round), by 2026-12-31 (UTC). — 45%

2025-12-30 — 117 items — newsletter

• Donald Trump will publicly announce a specific intended replacement nominee for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell (naming an individual) by 2026-01-31 (UTC). — 55%
• The Federal Reserve will leave the federal funds target range unchanged at its first two scheduled FOMC meetings of 2026 (no rate hike/cut at either meeting). — 60%
• China’s CAC (or another central regulator) will publish draft rules or formal regulatory guidance specifically requiring AI chatbots to implement anti-self-harm/suicide-content measures and to mitigate “emotional dependence”/manipulation risks by 2026-03-31 (UTC). — 65%
• SoftBank will announce a definitive agreement to acquire DigitalBridge (DBRG) (or substantially all of its operating assets) by 2026-06-30 (UTC). — 30%
• UN General Assembly will adopt a resolution explicitly calling on Israel to restore/maintain UNRWA privileges, immunities, or operational access, with at least 100 member states voting in favor, by 2026-03-31 (UTC). — 55%
• UNRWA will publicly announce a suspension of at least 14 consecutive days of its operations in either Gaza or the West Bank, explicitly citing Israeli legal/administrative restrictions (e.g., loss of privileges/immunities, access constraints), by 2026-06-30 (UTC). — 40%
• The U.S. State Department (or OMB) will publicly announce withholding, pausing, or conditioning at least $200 million in U.S. contributions to UN agencies/programs, explicitly tied to reforms, restructuring, or performance requirements, by 2026-09-30 (UTC). — 35%
• ICE Brent crude oil (front-month) will settle at or above $90.00/bbl at least once by 2026-03-31 (UTC). — 50%
• CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) will close at or above 35.0 at least once by 2026-06-30 (UTC). — 33%

2025-12-29 — 87 items — newsletter

• ICE Brent crude oil (front-month) will settle at or above $100.00/bbl at least once by 2026-09-30 (UTC). — 35%
• TrendForce/DRAMeXchange will report that average server DRAM contract prices increased by at least 15% quarter-over-quarter for any quarter in 2026 H1 or 2026 Q3, published by 2026-09-30 (UTC). — 55%
• BLS CPI-U for the category 'computers, peripherals, and smart home assistant devices' will show a positive year-over-year (12-month) percent change (>0.0%) in at least one monthly CPI release by 2026-12-31 (UTC). — 50%
• DHS and/or USCIS will publish a Federal Register Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (NPRM) that expands mandatory E-Verify usage beyond current federal-contractor requirements, by 2026-12-31 (UTC). — 30%
• The DOJ Antitrust Division or FTC will publicly announce a settlement/consent agreement that ends at least one active U.S. federal antitrust lawsuit against a major tech platform (Alphabet/Google, Meta, Amazon, Apple, or Microsoft) by 2026-12-31 (UTC). — 40%
• South Korea’s Personal Information Protection Commission (PIPC) will announce an administrative fine/penalty against Coupang for the reported data breach totaling at least KRW 50 billion, by 2026-12-31 (UTC). — 45%
• The U.S. government will publicly announce a pause, suspension, or reduction of at least $50 million in planned security/counternarcotics assistance to Colombia (named programs or aggregated amount), by 2026-06-30 (UTC). — 30%
• The EU (Council of the European Union) will adopt a new Syria-related restrictive-measures package designating at least 10 individuals and/or entities in a single action, by 2026-06-30 (UTC). — 35%
• A top U.S. quick-service or fast-casual restaurant company (McDonald's, Yum! Brands, Restaurant Brands International, Wendy’s, or Chipotle) will state in an earnings call transcript, press release, or SEC filing that a national 'value' platform (e.g., value menu/meal deal) is planned to continue through at least 2026-12-31, by 2026-09-30 (UTC). — 45%

2025-12-28 — 68 items — newsletter

• U.S. DHS (ICE/HSI) will publicly announce a single-day worksite/logistics enforcement operation resulting in at least 250 arrests/detentions across one metro area, by 2026-06-30 (UTC). — 45%
• The USTR will publish a Federal Register notice imposing an additional tariff rate of at least 10% on a defined list of imports with an estimated annual import value of at least $50 billion (as stated by USTR/ITC or reported by Reuters/Bloomberg), effective no later than 2026-09-30 (UTC). — 40%
• At least one of Moody’s, S&P Global Ratings, or Fitch will downgrade (not just place on watch) a rated U.S. private student-loan ABS tranche, citing increased bankruptcy discharge risk and/or higher-than-expected losses, by 2026-12-31 (UTC). — 35%
• The European Commission will publish a formal legislative proposal (COM document) creating or scaling an EU-level funding program of at least €10 billion specifically for AI compute infrastructure (data centers, accelerators, or AI supercomputing) and/or associated grid/power enablement, by 2026-12-31 (UTC). — 30%
• LME 3-month copper will settle at or above $10,500 per metric tonne at least once, by 2026-06-30 (UTC). — 42%
• Amazon (AWS) will announce a North America data-center power procurement deal totaling at least 1.0 GW of nameplate capacity (PPAs, generation acquisition, or dedicated build agreement), by 2026-09-30 (UTC). — 48%
• The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield will close at or below 3.50% (New York close) at least once, by 2026-06-30 (UTC). — 38%
• At least one U.S.-listed quantum-computing company (IonQ, Rigetti, D-Wave, or Quantum Computing Inc.) will complete an underwritten public equity offering raising at least $200 million in gross proceeds, by 2026-06-30 (UTC). — 45%
• At least one of Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, or Meta will explicitly cite 'copper' as a supply constraint or cost driver for data-center or AI infrastructure buildouts in an earnings-call transcript, by 2026-06-30 (UTC). — 55%

2025-12-27 — 94 items — newsletter

• Hong Kong authorities will announce at least one arrest or formal charge for bribery/corruption tied to building-code enforcement related to the 2025 Hong Kong apartment-fire case, by 2026-03-31 (UTC). — 45%
• The African Union (AU) will issue an official communique/statement explicitly criticizing or condemning Israel’s recognition of Somaliland, by 2026-02-15 (UTC). — 55%
• OFAC will announce a Russia-related sanctions package designating at least 30 individuals/entities in a single action (same press release/date), by 2026-03-31 (UTC). — 52%
• A California state wealth-tax bill will be introduced that proposes an annual tax rate of at least 1.0% on individual net worth, by 2026-03-31 (UTC). — 48%
• An investor will file a Schedule 13D disclosing beneficial ownership of at least 5.0% of Target Corp. (TGT), by 2026-02-28 (UTC). — 40%
• Oracle will reduce or defer previously communicated FY2026 capital-expenditure plans by at least $1.0 billion, as stated in an earnings release/call or SEC filing, by 2026-06-30 (UTC). — 33%
• The U.S. Department of Education will publish a Federal Register Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (NPRM) for a new or revised income-driven repayment (IDR) plan, by 2026-05-31 (UTC). — 50%
• U.S. CPI ‘Shelter’ (BLS) will fall to 3.0% year-over-year or lower in at least one monthly CPI release, by 2026-12-31 (UTC). — 42%
• The FTC or DOJ will open a publicly confirmed antitrust investigation (second request, civil investigative demand, or formal inquiry acknowledged in filings) into an AI-accelerator-related acquisition or strategic investment announced in 2026, by 2026-12-31 (UTC). — 45%
• A peer-reviewed paper will report independent replication of superconductivity in a newly reported ‘rule-breaking’ superconductor material at a transition temperature of at least 77 K, published by 2026-12-31 (UTC). — 28%

2025-12-26 — 79 items — newsletter

• Waymo will publicly confirm it has resumed offering paid driverless robotaxi rides to the general public in San Francisco by 2026-02-15 (UTC). — 75%
• CISA will add CVE-2025-68664 (LangChain/LangChain-core) to its Known Exploited Vulnerabilities (KEV) Catalog by 2026-03-31 (UTC). — 55%
• The U.S. Department of Defense (or U.S. Africa Command) will publicly announce at least one additional kinetic strike/operation in Nigeria targeting ISIS-linked militants by 2026-06-30 (UTC). — 45%
• The EU and/or U.S. will announce at least $1.0 billion in new funding commitments specifically for Ukraine electricity/grid/heat/water infrastructure repair or resilience by 2026-03-31 (UTC). — 55%
• FEMA will approve federal Individual Assistance (IA) or Public Assistance (PA) for at least one Southern California county due to the post-Christmas flooding by 2026-02-28 (UTC). — 50%
• The California Department of Insurance will approve a homeowners insurance rate increase of at least 20% for at least one top-10 U.S. home insurer (by premiums) for its California book, by 2026-09-30 (UTC). — 65%
• A bill creating a federal income-tax deduction (or credit) for consumer auto-loan interest will be introduced in either chamber of the U.S. Congress by 2026-03-31 (UTC). — 40%
• COMEX silver futures (front-month) will settle at or above $32.00/oz at least once by 2026-06-30 (UTC). — 45%
• The U.S. EPA will publish a funding solicitation (NOFO/RFP) offering at least $50 million total for PFAS destruction/destruction-technology pilots or demonstrations by 2026-06-30 (UTC). — 35%
• NOAA will issue a 2026 Atlantic hurricane seasonal outlook that calls for an 'above-normal' season (per NOAA’s categorical language) by 2026-05-31 (UTC). — 55%

2025-12-25 — 112 items — newsletter

• Nvidia will publicly announce a definitive agreement to acquire Groq (company or material assets/IP), with disclosed or reliably reported transaction value of at least $10 billion, by 2026-02-28 (UTC). — 55%
• BP will close (complete) the announced sale of a 65% stake in Castrol to Stonepeak (or named buyer group) by 2026-09-30 (UTC). — 65%
• Harvard University (or its governing corporation) will file a federal lawsuit against the U.S. executive branch or a federal agency related to the ongoing dispute (e.g., funding conditions, oversight demands, or regulatory leverage) by 2026-06-30 (UTC). — 45%
• The U.S. Department of Justice Office of Inspector General will publicly announce (press release, report, or formal notice) a review/investigation into the handling, redaction, or release process for the Epstein-related document disclosures by 2026-03-31 (UTC). — 50%
• Amazon will launch a broadly available (not invite-only) AI shopping-agent feature in the U.S. that can autonomously perform multi-step shopping tasks (e.g., search/compare/select and complete checkout on behalf of a user) by 2026-09-30 (UTC). — 60%
• At least one large U.S. investor-owned utility will publicly announce (press release, IRP filing, or earnings materials) a delay of a previously scheduled coal unit retirement by at least 24 months, explicitly citing new or expected federal policy support for coal plant retention, by 2026-06-30 (UTC). — 55%
• The U.S. and Honduras will announce a new bilateral migration/security cooperation package totaling at least $100 million in pledged funding and/or equipment support by 2026-12-31 (UTC). — 40%
• Ukraine and Russia will hold at least one publicly confirmed direct in-person meeting between official delegations (not solely via intermediaries) that explicitly includes discussion of a demilitarized zone and/or troop pullbacks in eastern Ukraine by 2026-06-30 (UTC). — 35%
• At least one major academic publisher (Elsevier, Springer Nature, Wiley, Taylor & Francis, IEEE) will announce a mandatory AI-use disclosure requirement embedded in manuscript submission for all journals (e.g., required checkbox/field) by 2026-06-30 (UTC). — 50%

2025-12-24 — 125 items — newsletter

• At least one major U.S. offshore-wind developer (e.g., Ørsted, Equinor, Avangrid, Dominion JV, Vineyard Wind owners) or an industry trade group will file a federal lawsuit challenging the Trump administration’s offshore-wind project halt/pause (seeking injunctive/declaratory relief) by 2026-03-31 (UTC). — 45%
• ServiceNow will complete (close) its announced acquisition of Armis for $7.75B, with the closing publicly confirmed by ServiceNow via press release, 8-K, or earnings release, by 2026-09-30 (UTC). — 65%
• Aflac will disclose in an SEC filing or earnings release an estimated pre-tax charge, reserve, or loss contingency of at least $100 million attributable to the reported data breach/cyber incident by 2026-06-30 (UTC). — 55%
• The U.S. SEC will announce at least one settled enforcement action (order or litigation release) primarily alleging violations of the SEC’s public-company cybersecurity disclosure controls/timing requirements adopted in 2023, by 2026-06-30 (UTC). — 60%
• China will announce at least one new export-control measure (new restriction, licensing requirement, or controlled-item expansion) targeting a semiconductor-related material, tool, or component, with the U.S. explicitly identified as a destination or affected party, by 2026-03-31 (UTC). — 40%
• At least one of the major global oil traders (Vitol, Trafigura, Glencore, Mercuria) will publicly state (press statement, court filing, or quoted executive comment in Reuters/Bloomberg/FT/WSJ) that it has suspended or is winding down Venezuela crude/oil-product trading specifically due to U.S. enforcement/sanctions risk by 2026-02-28 (UTC). — 35%
• The CDC will publish an official update (web update, MMWR, or revised guideline document) to its U.S. STI treatment guidance that includes at least one of the newly approved gonorrhea antibiotics as a recommended regimen or alternative regimen by 2026-12-31 (UTC). — 55%
• A peer-reviewed study will report a pilot-scale deployment (not just lab bench) of a biomimetic 'fish-inspired' (or explicitly derived from that work) microplastics filter treating real-world water (drinking water, wastewater, or surface water), achieving ≥90% microplastics removal, published by 2026-12-31 (UTC). — 35%
• The U.S. Department of Education will issue an official press release or Federal Student Aid (studentaid.gov) update stating that involuntary collections (wage garnishment and/or Treasury offsets) have resumed and have cumulatively recovered at least $1.0 billion since resumption, by 2026-06-30 (UTC). — 42%

2025-12-23 — 117 items — newsletter

• The U.S. Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) will NOT conduct any competitive offshore wind lease auction in U.S. federal waters between 2025-12-23 and 2026-06-30 (UTC). — 62%
• Dominion Energy will disclose an impairment, write-down, or asset valuation charge of at least $500 million related to offshore wind in an SEC filing or earnings release by 2026-05-15 (UTC). — 38%
• The European Commission will initiate a WTO dispute against China concerning the reported tariffs on EU dairy (e.g., request for consultations) by 2026-06-30 (UTC). — 55%
• The India–New Zealand free-trade agreement announced on 2025-12-22 will enter into force (effective date announced by either government) by 2026-12-31 (UTC). — 60%
• Spot gold (XAU/USD) will record at least one daily close above its 2025-12-22 record close by 2026-06-30 (UTC). — 52%
• Alphabet/Google will announce at least one North America data-center power procurement deal totaling ≥1.0 GW of nameplate capacity (e.g., PPAs, generation acquisition, or dedicated build agreement) by 2026-06-30 (UTC). — 57%
• Warner Bros. Discovery and Paramount will announce a definitive merger agreement (signed deal) by 2026-09-30 (UTC). — 34%
• Novo Nordisk will report at least $500 million in quarterly net sales (company-reported) for its newly approved oral GLP-1 obesity pill in a financial report released by 2026-12-31 (UTC). — 30%
• The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) will award or announce a contract (or OTA award) of at least $150 million to expand U.S. rare-earth permanent magnet manufacturing capacity by 2026-06-30 (UTC). — 46%
• Denmark’s government will announce a new Arctic/Greenland security spending package totaling at least DKK 5.0 billion (≈US$700M) by 2026-06-30 (UTC). — 41%
• U.S. CPI for the BLS category 'distilled spirits' will be negative year-over-year in at least one monthly CPI release published by 2026-06-30 (UTC). — 44%

2025-12-22 — 87 items — newsletter

• S&P 500 will close at least 2.0% higher on 2025-12-31 than its close on 2025-12-22. — 42%
• China’s PBoC will cut the 1-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) by at least 10 basis points versus its 2025-12-22 level by 2026-03-31. — 45%
• The U.S. Department of Justice will publicly announce a criminal case (complaint/indictment/arrest) involving alleged PRC-directed transnational repression activity on U.S. soil by 2026-06-30. — 40%
• Canada’s federal government will announce new border-enforcement measures specifically targeting illegal firearm smuggling from the U.S., including either (a) new dedicated funding of at least C$100M or (b) a new legislative bill introduced in Parliament, by 2026-06-30. — 55%
• The European Commission will publish a formal legislative proposal (COM document) that changes or delays at least one key element of the EU’s 2035 light-duty vehicle zero-CO2 target / ICE phaseout framework by 2026-06-30. — 50%
• California regulators will open a formal proceeding (e.g., CPUC Order Instituting Investigation or DMV enforcement action) explicitly referencing the San Francisco robotaxi service disruption during the reported blackout-related incident, by 2026-03-31. — 30%
• Challenger, Gray & Christmas (or another widely cited U.S. layoff tracker) will report at least 150,000 U.S. job-cut announcements explicitly attributed to AI/automation in 2026 H1 (Jan–Jun). — 35%
• A CO2-based energy storage technology provider will announce commercial operation (COD) of a grid-connected project with nameplate energy capacity of at least 10 MWh by 2026-12-31. — 25%
• The U.S. (NOAA, USGS, or FEMA) will announce at least $50M in new federal funding awards specifically for tsunami risk mitigation or evacuation infrastructure in Alaska by 2026-09-30. — 28%
• The U.S. government will publicly report (press release or official statement) the seizure, detention, or forced diversion to a U.S.-controlled port/anchorage of at least one tanker carrying Venezuelan-origin crude or products by 2026-03-31. — 35%

2025-12-21 — 85 items — newsletter

• Berkshire Hathaway will publicly announce (press release or SEC 8-K) that Greg Abel has become CEO (effective date stated) by 2026-01-15 (UTC). — 72%
• OFAC will announce at least 2 Venezuela-related SDN designations explicitly tied to crude/oil-product shipping or trading networks by 2026-02-28 (UTC). — 55%
• Reuters or Bloomberg will report that Venezuela’s seaborne crude+condensate exports (citing Kpler or Vortexa) fell below a 4-week average of 600,000 barrels/day at least once by 2026-03-31 (UTC). — 40%
• A major tech trade association or frontier-AI developer will file a federal lawsuit challenging New York’s RAISE Act (or its implementing provisions) by 2026-03-31 (UTC). — 50%
• At least one U.S. state legislature outside New York will introduce a bill that mandates safety evaluations or risk-management obligations specifically for 'frontier'/'foundation' AI models by 2026-06-30 (UTC). — 45%
• A bipartisan U.S. Senate bill establishing a federal regulatory framework for payment stablecoins will be introduced by 2026-03-31 (UTC). — 60%
• S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-city home price index will show year-over-year growth below 0.0% (negative YoY) in at least one release published by 2026-06-30 (UTC). — 48%
• Google will announce general availability in the U.S. of a Gemini-powered AI answer feature integrated into core Search (not limited to an invite-only experiment) by 2026-06-30 (UTC). — 55%
• The Minor Planet Center will publish an orbit solution and official designation confirming the newly observed object as an interstellar comet (I/ designation) by 2026-01-31 (UTC). — 65%
• The U.S. Treasury (OFAC or FinCEN) will issue at least one public advisory or alert explicitly warning financial institutions about sanctions-evasion typologies involving Venezuelan oil shipments by 2026-06-30 (UTC). — 42%

2025-12-20 — 139 items — newsletter

• The Federal Reserve will publish (Federal Register) a Notice of Proposed Rulemaking or formal proposed definition/framework for a limited-purpose "payment account" for clearing/settlement access by 2026-06-30 (UTC). — 55%
• The White House will publicly announce a nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors (to succeed the current Chair) by 2026-02-15 (UTC). — 65%
• OpenAI will publicly confirm closing a primary financing round with at least $50.0B in gross proceeds (new capital raised) by 2026-09-30 (UTC). — 45%
• At least one data-center company/REIT or hyperscale-related operator will announce a definitive agreement for a data-center acquisition (asset or company) with transaction value of at least $5.0B by 2026-06-30 (UTC). — 50%
• Tesla will file a definitive proxy statement or other SEC filing that explicitly puts approval/ratification or implementation mechanics of Elon Musk’s restored pay package to a shareholder vote (or equivalent formal corporate action) by 2026-04-30 (UTC). — 60%
• Cisco will publish at least one security advisory stating that a Cisco product vulnerability is being "actively exploited" in the wild by 2026-03-31 (UTC). — 58%
• A bipartisan bill to cap or materially reform U.S. credit-card interchange fees (Visa/Mastercard networks) will be introduced in either chamber of Congress by 2026-03-31 (UTC). — 40%
• At least one of the nine large pharma companies reported as signing drug-pricing deals with Trump will publicly announce U.S. list-price reductions affecting at least 10 branded drugs (combined) effective in 2026, by 2026-12-31 (UTC). — 55%
• NOAA will publish an official verification/skill assessment (NOAA.gov, NWS, or NOAA technical memorandum) showing its AI-driven global weather model outperforms a prior NOAA baseline on at least one named forecast-skill metric at 3–7 day horizons by 2026-06-30 (UTC). — 52%

2025-12-19 — 147 items — newsletter

• Bank of Japan will raise its policy rate by at least 10 basis points (cumulative) by 2026-04-30 (UTC). — 58%
• TikTok will remain available for download in the U.S. (both Apple App Store and Google Play) on 2026-06-30 (UTC). — 70%
• The EU will adopt (final approval) a legal instrument committing at least €20B in support for Ukraine explicitly financed by proceeds from frozen Russian sovereign assets (e.g., windfall profits) by 2026-06-30 (UTC). — 30%
• The U.S. IRS will publish guidance stating that Internal Revenue Code Section 280E no longer applies to cannabis businesses compliant with federal Schedule III status, effective for tax year 2026, by 2026-12-31 (UTC). — 45%
• TrendForce (or DRAMeXchange/TrendForce) will report that the average contract price for DDR5 16Gb DRAM is at least 15% higher than its December 2025 level in a report published by 2026-06-30 (UTC). — 50%
• Nike will report Greater China quarterly revenue down at least 10% year-over-year in its fiscal Q3 2026 earnings release (quarter ending ~Feb 2026), published by 2026-04-30 (UTC). — 55%
• The Federal Reserve will publish at least one additional public supervisory document (e.g., SR letter, supervisory guidance, or FAQ) explicitly referencing implementation of its new supervision manual for large/complex banks by 2026-09-30 (UTC). — 50%
• Trump Media & Technology Group and TAE Technologies (or the named fusion counterpart) will file an S-4 (or equivalent registration/proxy statement for the merger) with the U.S. SEC by 2026-03-31 (UTC). — 60%
• A satellite-based quantum communications demonstration will be publicly announced showing distribution of quantum keys or entanglement between a satellite and a ground station by 2026-12-31 (UTC). — 25%

2025-12-18 — 138 items — newsletter

• Coursera and Udemy will close (consummate) their announced merger transaction by 2026-09-30 (UTC). — 65%
• The U.S. Federal Trade Commission will file a formal complaint (federal court or administrative) or announce a settlement/order against Instacart related to algorithmic/AI pricing practices by 2026-06-30 (UTC). — 35%
• Coinbase will launch U.S. retail-accessible stock trading (ability for U.S.-based retail customers to place orders for U.S.-listed equities) by 2026-06-30 (UTC). — 50%
• Micron will report quarterly revenue of at least $9.0B in at least one earnings release issued by 2026-06-30 (UTC). — 60%
• Oracle will publicly announce a new external financing partner or co-investor for its Michigan (formerly reported ~$10B) data center project by 2026-06-30 (UTC). — 50%
• Freddie Mac PMMS 30-year fixed mortgage rate will print at or above 7.00% in at least one weekly survey by 2026-03-31 (UTC). — 40%
• ICE Brent crude oil front-month futures will settle at or above $85.00 per barrel on at least one trading day by 2026-03-31 (UTC). — 33%
• Statistics Canada will report another quarter of negative population growth (quarter-over-quarter change < 0) in an official release published by 2026-06-30 (UTC). — 45%
• The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Loan Programs Office (or another DOE financing vehicle) will announce a conditional commitment or finalized loan guarantee totaling at least $2.0B for a nuclear power project in the U.S. by 2026-12-31 (UTC). — 35%

2025-12-17 — 136 items — newsletter

• The U.S. government (Treasury/OFAC, DHS/Coast Guard, or another federal agency) will publish an official notice (press release or Federal Register) announcing new enforcement guidance, interdiction authority, or expanded sanctions specifically targeting Venezuelan crude/oil-product maritime shipments by 2026-01-31 (UTC). — 57%
• At least one major marine insurer (e.g., NorthStandard, Gard, UK P&I Club) or top-tier tanker operator (e.g., Frontline, Euronav, Teekay, Angelicoussis group entity) will publicly announce a suspension/restriction of coverage or carriage specifically for Venezuela-related crude/oil-product voyages due to U.S. enforcement risk by 2026-02-28 (UTC). — 44%
• NYMEX WTI crude oil front-month futures will settle at or below $60.00 per barrel on at least one trading day by 2026-03-31 (UTC). — 38%
• A U.S. federal court will issue a temporary restraining order (TRO) or preliminary injunction that blocks or pauses enforcement of at least one material part of the expanded U.S. travel restrictions affecting newly added countries by 2026-02-15 (UTC). — 53%
• Tesla will update consumer-facing Autopilot/FSD marketing language (website purchase flow or official product page) to remove or materially qualify at least one capability claim cited in the California deceptive-marketing ruling, by 2026-03-31 (UTC). — 49%
• Waymo will publicly confirm closing a new external funding round with disclosed proceeds of at least $10.0B by 2026-06-30 (UTC). — 36%
• Databricks will publicly file an S-1 (or confidentially submit a draft registration statement that it publicly acknowledges) for a U.S. IPO by 2026-06-30 (UTC). — 32%
• The DEA will publish a final rule in the Federal Register rescheduling marijuana to Schedule III by 2026-03-31 (UTC). — 37%
• The U.S. Unemployment Rate (seasonally adjusted) for February 2026 will print at or above 4.8%. — 41%
• At the March 2026 FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve will cut the federal funds target range by at least 25 basis points versus its level immediately before the meeting. — 39%

2025-12-16 — 139 items — newsletter

• The EU Council will renew (extend) the EU’s sectoral economic sanctions on Russia by 2026-01-31 (UTC). — 78%
• The U.S. Treasury Monthly Statement will report Customs Duties (tariff receipts) of at least $20.0B in at least one month by 2026-03-31 (UTC). — 40%
• The ICE BofA MOVE Index will close at or below 75.0 on at least one trading day by 2026-03-31 (UTC). — 48%
• PayPal will publicly disclose that U.S. regulators have either approved or denied its application to form a U.S. bank by 2026-06-30 (UTC). — 42%
• Ford’s new battery storage business will announce at least one signed commercial contract (customer order or long-term agreement) for a data-center battery storage deployment of at least 50 MWh by 2026-06-30 (UTC). — 33%
• The U.S. Department of Defense (or a DoD-controlled entity) will announce a finalized definitive investment agreement for the Korea Zinc Tennessee smelter project by 2026-03-31 (UTC). — 61%
• The Nasdaq-100 Index (NDX) will have at least one single trading day with a close-to-close decline of 3.0% or more by 2026-03-31 (UTC). — 59%
• Russia will issue an official statement acknowledging a successful Ukrainian unmanned maritime/underwater attack causing material damage to a Russian naval submarine by 2026-03-31 (UTC). — 18%

2025-12-15 — 85 items — newsletter

• ServiceNow will announce a definitive agreement to acquire Armis by 2026-03-31 (UTC). — 34%
• iRobot will publicly disclose (via press release or SEC filing) a signed agreement to sell substantially all assets or the company (a sale transaction) out of bankruptcy by 2026-06-30 (UTC). — 57%
• At least one publicly confirmed direct meeting between official delegations from Ukraine and Russia (in-person or virtual) will occur by 2026-03-31 (UTC). — 29%
• Australia’s federal government will introduce (table) a bill in Parliament specifically targeting online misinformation/deepfakes or violent-extremist content amplification by 2026-03-31 (UTC). — 46%
• Chile’s new administration will submit an executive-sponsored public security/anti-crime legislative package to the National Congress by 2026-06-30 (UTC). — 66%
• The U.S. Navy will award at least one new shipbuilding-related contract (new award, not an option exercise) with announced total value of $1.0B or more by 2026-03-31 (UTC). — 72%
• KOSPI (South Korea) will close at or below 2,500 on at least one trading day by 2026-03-31 (UTC). — 38%
• A hyperscale cloud provider (AWS, Microsoft Azure, or Google Cloud) will publicly announce a pilot or customer availability for glass-based archival storage media (e.g., 5D glass/ultra-long-life glass storage) by 2026-06-30 (UTC). — 22%

2025-12-14 — 79 items — newsletter

• The U.S. Department of Defense will publicly announce at least one airstrike targeting ISIS in Syria or Iraq by 2026-01-31 (UTC). — 62%
• OFAC will announce at least one Iran-related sanctions designation via a U.S. Treasury press release by 2025-12-31 (UTC). — 58%
• MBA Weekly Applications Survey will report the adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share at or above 10.0% in at least one weekly release by 2026-03-31 (UTC). — 54%
• Cboe VIX3M minus VIX (term structure spread) will close at or below -2.0 points on at least one trading day by 2026-03-31 (UTC). — 57%
• EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report will show a Lower 48 net withdrawal of at least 180 Bcf in at least one report published by 2026-03-31 (UTC). — 41%
• The U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield (FRED: DGS10) will close at or above 4.50% on at least one trading day by 2026-03-31 (UTC). — 44%
• The European Commission will open at least one new formal non-compliance proceeding under the Digital Markets Act against a designated gatekeeper by 2026-03-31 (UTC). — 70%
• At least one of the top five U.S. commercial insurers (UnitedHealthcare, Elevance/Anthem, Aetna/CVS, Cigna, Humana) will announce expanded GLP-1 coverage for obesity including maintenance beyond 12 months by 2026-03-31 (UTC). — 48%
• U.S. CPI (headline, MoM, seasonally adjusted) for January 2026 will print between -0.1% and +0.3%. — 63%
• NOAA SWPC will report at least one R3 (Strong) Radio Blackout event by 2026-03-31 (UTC). — 52%
• EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report will show U.S. crude oil field production at or above 13.6 million barrels/day in at least one release by 2026-03-31 (UTC). — 55%
• Berkshire Hathaway Class B (BRK.B) will close at a new all-time high on at least one trading day by 2026-03-31 (UTC). — 53%

2025-12-13 — 123 items — newsletter

• ERCOT system peak demand will set a new winter record at or above 80.0 GW by 2026-02-28 (UTC). — 55%
• Starlink will publicly file an S-1 registration statement with the U.S. SEC by 2026-03-31 (UTC). — 42%
• The DEA will publish a final rule in the Federal Register rescheduling marijuana to Schedule III by 2026-06-30 (UTC). — 53%
• Coinbase will announce or launch a regulated prediction markets product integrated with Kalshi by 2026-02-28 (UTC). — 60%
• NOAA SWPC will report at least one G4 (Severe) geomagnetic storm event by 2026-03-31 (UTC). — 34%
• S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index (YoY, NSA) for October 2025 will print between -0.5% and +1.5%. — 52%
• Freddie Mac PMMS 30-year fixed mortgage rate will print at or below 6.00% in at least one weekly survey by 2026-03-31 (UTC). — 56%
• ICE Brent crude front-month futures will settle at or below $65.00 per barrel on at least one trading day by 2026-03-31 (UTC). — 35%
• NYMEX Henry Hub natural gas front-month futures will settle at or above $3.75 per MMBtu on at least one trading day by 2026-03-31 (UTC). — 47%
• S&P 500 Index (SPX) will close at least 10.0% below its all-time closing high on at least one trading day by 2026-03-31 (UTC). — 31%
• Google will publish a Chrome Stable Channel update in January 2026 acknowledging at least one security vulnerability that has been "actively exploited" in the wild. — 64%

2025-12-12 — 144 items — newsletter

• Cboe VIX will close at or above 20.0 on at least one trading day by 2026-01-31 (UTC). — 43%
• U.S. Unemployment Rate (seasonally adjusted) for December 2025 will print between 3.6% and 4.0%. — 62%
• U.S. CPI (headline, MoM, seasonally adjusted) for December 2025 will print between -0.1% and +0.3%. — 65%
• The FOMC will cut the federal funds target range by 25 bps at its January 2026 meeting. — 52%
• OFAC will announce at least one Russia-related sanctions designation via a U.S. Treasury press release by 2025-12-31 (UTC). — 64%
• Freddie Mac PMMS 30-year fixed mortgage rate will print at or below 6.25% in at least one weekly survey by 2026-01-31 (UTC). — 58%
• CISA will add at least 10 new CVEs to the Known Exploited Vulnerabilities (KEV) Catalog in January 2026. — 57%
• Apple will publish a January 2026 macOS security update acknowledging at least one vulnerability that "may have been actively exploited." — 46%
• Bitcoin (BTC-USD) will trade at or above $95,000 on at least one UTC day by 2026-03-31. — 34%
• NOAA SWPC will report at least one S2 (Moderate) Solar Radiation Storm by 2026-03-31 (UTC). — 56%
• U.S. Retail Sales (Advance, total, MoM, SA) for December 2025 will print between -0.2% and +0.6%. — 58%
• USD/JPY spot will trade at or below 138.00 on at least one UTC day by 2026-03-31. — 45%
• ICE Brent crude front-month futures will settle at or below $70.00 per barrel on at least one trading day by 2026-03-31 (UTC). — 32%

2025-12-11 — 136 items — newsletter

• S&P 500 Index (SPX) will close at a new all-time high on at least one trading day by 2025-12-31 (UTC). — 60%
• COMEX Gold (GC) front-month futures will settle at or above $2,500/oz on at least one trading day by 2025-12-31 (UTC). — 38%
• USD/JPY spot will trade at or below 140.00 on at least one UTC day by 2026-01-31. — 54%
• The Bank of Japan will leave its short-term policy rate unchanged at its December 2025 meeting. — 62%
• Microsoft’s January 2026 Patch Tuesday will include at least one Critical-severity Remote Code Execution vulnerability affecting Windows. — 78%
• CISA will add at least one Chrome/Chromium V8 zero-day (known exploited) to the KEV Catalog by 2026-01-31 (UTC). — 55%
• NOAA SWPC will report a planetary Kp index reading of at least 7 (G3-level geomagnetic activity) on at least one 3-hour interval by 2025-12-31 (UTC). — 57%
• U.S. New Home Sales (SAAR) for November 2025 will print between 650,000 and 750,000. — 58%
• U.S. Durable Goods Orders (headline, MoM, SA) for November 2025 will print between -0.4% and +1.2%. — 56%
• U.S. JOLTS Job Openings for November 2025 will print between 8.6 million and 9.3 million (seasonally adjusted). — 59%
• The U.S. 2-Year Treasury yield (FRED: DGS2) will close at or below 4.00% on at least one trading day by 2025-12-31 (UTC). — 52%
• NYMEX Henry Hub natural gas front-month futures will settle at or above $3.25 per MMBtu on at least one trading day by 2026-01-31 (UTC). — 49%
• Apple will publish a January 2026 iOS/iPadOS security update acknowledging at least one WebKit vulnerability that 'may have been actively exploited.' — 51%
• In at least one Weekly Petroleum Status Report released by 2026-01-31, U.S. operable refinery utilization will be reported at or above 92.0%. — 44%

2025-12-10 — 136 items — newsletter

• The FOMC will cut the federal funds target range by 25 bps to 5.00%–5.25% at its December 2025 meeting. — 66%
• By 2025-12-20 (UTC), the U.S. Commerce Department (BIS) will publicly confirm or formalize policy enabling Nvidia H200 shipments to China (e.g., guidance or Federal Register notice). — 55%
• CISA will add at least 5 new CVEs to the Known Exploited Vulnerabilities (KEV) Catalog in December 2025. — 62%
• The iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) will close at a new all-time high on at least one trading day by 2025-12-31 (UTC). — 58%
• U.S. Core PCE Price Index (MoM, SA) for November 2025 will print between +0.1% and +0.3%. — 61%
• Seasonally adjusted U.S. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending 2025-12-06 will print between 220,000 and 245,000. — 59%
• ICE Brent crude front-month futures will settle at or above $88.00 per barrel on at least one trading day by 2025-12-31 (UTC). — 45%
• The U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield (FRED: DGS10) will close at or below 3.95% on at least one trading day by 2025-12-31 (UTC). — 50%
• NAR Total housing inventory at end of November 2025 will print between 1.05 million and 1.25 million. — 56%
• ICE Endex Dutch TTF front-month natural gas will settle at or above €50.00/MWh on at least one trading day by 2025-12-31 (UTC). — 47%

2025-12-09 — 140 items — newsletter

• The FOMC will leave the federal funds target range unchanged at 5.25%–5.50% at its December 2025 meeting. — 68%
• The Bank of England will leave Bank Rate unchanged at its December 2025 policy meeting. — 64%
• U.S. Existing-Home Sales (SAAR) for November 2025 will print between 3.70 million and 4.10 million. — 57%
• S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index (YoY) for October 2025 will print between +1.5% and +3.5%. — 55%
• NOAA SWPC will issue at least one G3 (Strong) Geomagnetic Storm watch, warning, or alert by 2025-12-31 (UTC). — 60%
• EIA will report U.S. crude oil field production at or above 13.4 million barrels/day in at least one Weekly Petroleum Status Report released by 2025-12-31. — 56%
• NYMEX WTI crude oil front-month futures will settle at or above $85.00 per barrel on at least one trading day by 2025-12-31 (UTC). — 42%
• NYMEX Henry Hub natural gas front-month futures will settle at or below $2.25 per MMBtu on at least one trading day by 2025-12-31 (UTC). — 44%
• The U.S. Commerce Department (BIS) will add at least one China-based AI accelerator or chip design firm to the Entity List by 2025-12-31 (UTC). — 41%
• Paramount Global or Warner Bros. Discovery will publicly disclose receipt of a 'Second Request' under the HSR Act in connection with a proposed Paramount–WBD transaction by 2026-01-31 (UTC). — 36%
• Waymo will report achieving at least 500,000 weekly paid robotaxi rides on at least one week by 2026-03-31 (UTC). — 64%
• The European Commission will open at least one new formal non-compliance proceeding under the Digital Markets Act against a designated gatekeeper by 2025-12-31 (UTC). — 45%
• U.S. CPI Shelter index (YoY, NSA) for November 2025 will print between 4.8% and 5.6%. — 58%

2025-12-08 — 81 items — newsletter

• U.S. CPI (headline, YoY, NSA) for November 2025 will print between 3.0% and 3.4%. — 61%
• U.S. Core CPI (YoY, NSA) for November 2025 will print between 3.4% and 3.8%. — 60%
• At the December 2025 FOMC meeting, the SEP median projection for the 2025 federal funds rate (year-end) will be between 4.0% and 4.6%. — 57%
• Cboe VIX will close at or below 12.0 on at least one trading day by 2025-12-31 (UTC). — 49%
• Russell 2000 Index (RUT) will close at or above 2,350 on at least one trading day by 2025-12-31 (UTC). — 47%
• EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report will show a Lower 48 net withdrawal of at least 120 Bcf in at least one report published by 2025-12-31. — 44%
• NFIB Small Business 'Plans to Make Capital Outlays' index for November 2025 will print between 20 and 24. — 55%
• University of Michigan Index of Current Economic Conditions (preliminary) for December 2025 will print between 67.0 and 74.0. — 55%
• Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey Prices Paid Index for December 2025 will print between 12.0 and 30.0. — 54%
• NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (headline, SA) for December 2025 will print between 34 and 43. — 56%
• OFAC will announce at least one Venezuela-related sanctions designation via a U.S. Treasury press release by 2025-12-31 (UTC). — 50%
• Google will publish a Chrome Stable Channel update in December 2025 acknowledging at least one High-severity 'use after free' vulnerability in V8. — 58%
• Android’s December 2025 Security Bulletin will include at least one kernel elevation-of-privilege CVE with CVSS v3.x Base Score ≥ 7.8. — 62%

2025-12-07 — 75 items — newsletter

• U.S. Producer Price Index (Final Demand, MoM, SA) for November 2025 will print between -0.1% and +0.3%. — 61%
• U.S. PPI Final Demand less Food, Energy, and Trade Services (MoM, SA) for November 2025 will print between +0.0% and +0.3%. — 59%
• U.S. Retail Sales (Advance, total, MoM, SA) for November 2025 will print between -0.3% and +0.4%. — 58%
• U.S. Retail Sales Control Group (ex autos, gas, building materials, food services; MoM, SA) for November 2025 will print between -0.1% and +0.5%. — 57%
• U.S. Industrial Production (MoM, SA) for November 2025 will print between -0.3% and +0.3%. — 60%
• U.S. Capacity Utilization (Total Industry, SA) for November 2025 will print between 78.0% and 79.6%. — 56%
• U.S. Housing Starts (SAAR) for November 2025 will print between 1.30 million and 1.45 million. — 57%
• U.S. Building Permits (SAAR) for November 2025 will print between 1.38 million and 1.55 million. — 58%
• Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey General Activity Index for December 2025 will print between -8.0 and +8.0. — 55%
• NY Fed Empire State Manufacturing Survey General Business Conditions Index for December 2025 will print between -15.0 and 0.0. — 55%
• University of Michigan 1-year inflation expectations (final) for December 2025 will print between 2.8% and 3.4%. — 59%
• University of Michigan 5-year inflation expectations (final) for December 2025 will print between 2.8% and 3.2%. — 58%
• OFAC will announce at least one China-related sanctions designation via a U.S. Treasury press release by 2025-12-31 (UTC). — 55%
• SAP’s December 2025 Security Notes (Patch Day) will include at least one HotNews note (CVSS v3.x Base Score ≥ 9.0). — 64%
• Netflix or Warner Bros. Discovery will publicly disclose receipt of a 'Second Request' under the HSR Act for their proposed transaction by 2026-01-31 (UTC). — 45%

2025-12-06 — 140 items — newsletter

• U.S. CPI (headline, MoM, seasonally adjusted) for November 2025 will print between -0.1% and +0.2%. — 60%
• U.S. Core CPI (MoM, SA) for November 2025 will print between +0.1% and +0.3%. — 62%
• University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (final) for December 2025 will print between 73.0 and 80.0. — 58%
• At the December 2025 FOMC meeting, the SEP median projection for the 2026 federal funds rate will be between 3.0% and 3.6%. — 56%
• OFAC will announce at least one DPRK (North Korea)-related sanctions designation via a U.S. Treasury press release by 2025-12-31 (UTC). — 57%
• The European Commission will open at least one new formal DSA proceeding against a Very Large Online Platform by 2025-12-31 (UTC). — 48%
• NOAA SWPC will report at least one X1.0 or stronger solar flare by 2025-12-31 (UTC). — 65%
• NYMEX WTI crude oil front-month futures will settle at or below $72.00 per barrel on at least one trading day by 2025-12-31 (UTC). — 52%
• Mozilla will publish at least one security advisory in December 2025 with Critical severity affecting Firefox or Thunderbird. — 70%
• CISA ICS-CERT will publish at least one ICS Advisory in December 2025 with CVSS v3.x Base Score ≥ 9.8. — 63%

2025-12-05 — 142 items — newsletter

• U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (total, seasonally adjusted) for November 2025 will print between +120,000 and +220,000. — 55%
• U.S. Average Weekly Hours (Total Private, seasonally adjusted) for November 2025 will print between 34.2 and 34.4 hours. — 67%
• U.S. Labor Force Participation Rate (seasonally adjusted) for November 2025 will print between 62.5% and 62.9%. — 63%
• University of Michigan 1-year inflation expectations (preliminary) for December 2025 will print between 2.7% and 3.5%. — 62%
• China CPI (headline, YoY, NSA) for November 2025 will print between -0.3% and +0.5%. — 55%
• OFAC will announce at least one Iran-related sanctions designation via a U.S. Treasury press release by 2025-12-31 (UTC). — 57%
• Cisco PSIRT will publish at least two security advisories in December 2025 with CVSS v3.x Base Score ≥ 9.8. — 42%
• Nasdaq-100 Index (NDX) will close at a new all-time high on at least one trading day by 2025-12-31 (UTC). — 60%
• In at least one Weekly Petroleum Status Report released by 2025-12-31, U.S. motor gasoline stocks will increase by at least 5.0 million barrels week-over-week. — 52%
• Android’s December 2025 Security Bulletin will include at least one Critical-severity remote code execution vulnerability in Framework, System, or Media components. — 70%
• NOAA SWPC will issue at least one S3 (Strong) Solar Radiation Storm alert or warning by 2025-12-31 (UTC). — 55%
• U.S. PCE Price Index (headline, YoY, NSA) for November 2025 will print between 2.5% and 2.9%. — 62%
• NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for November 2025 will print between 90.0 and 92.5. — 57%

2025-12-04 — 154 items — newsletter

• The European Central Bank will leave the deposit facility rate unchanged at its December 2025 policy meeting. — 60%
• U.S. Average Hourly Earnings (Total Private, MoM, SA) for November 2025 will print between +0.2% and +0.4%. — 58%
• ISM Manufacturing PMI (headline, U.S.) for November 2025 will print between 47.5 and 49.5. — 55%
• University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (preliminary) for December 2025 will print between 72.0 and 79.0. — 56%
• Apple will publish at least one December 2025 security update acknowledging a vulnerability that 'may have been actively exploited.' — 59%
• The EU will announce at least one new Russia-related sanctions designation by 2025-12-31 via an official Council press release or the Official Journal. — 62%
• BTC/USD spot will trade at or below $60,000 on at least one UTC day by 2025-12-31. — 53%
• Cboe VIX will close at or above 18.0 on at least one trading day by 2025-12-31 (UTC). — 42%
• Seasonally adjusted U.S. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending 2025-11-29 will print between 220,000 and 245,000. — 57%
• U.S. PCE Price Index (headline, MoM, SA) for November 2025 will print between +0.0% and +0.2%. — 60%
• The Bank of Canada will leave its policy rate unchanged at its December 2025 decision. — 61%
• ICE Endex TTF front-month natural gas will settle at or below €35.00/MWh on at least one trading day by 2025-12-31 (UTC). — 54%
• The U.S. 5-Year Treasury yield (FRED: DGS5) will close at or below 3.95% on at least one trading day by 2025-12-31 (UTC). — 48%

2025-12-03 — 132 items — newsletter

• Microsoft’s December 2025 Patch Tuesday will include at least one CVE noted as 'exploited in the wild.' — 58%
• OFAC will announce at least one Russia-related sanctions designation via a U.S. Treasury press release by 2025-12-31 (UTC). — 62%
• The S&P 500 Index (SPX) will close at a new all-time high on at least one trading day by 2025-12-31 (UTC). — 52%
• University of Michigan 5-year inflation expectations (preliminary) for December 2025 will print between 2.8% and 3.2%. — 58%
• Seasonally adjusted U.S. Initial Jobless Claims will print at or above 240,000 in at least one Weekly Claims report released by 2025-12-31. — 52%
• The Swiss National Bank will leave its policy rate unchanged at its December 2025 monetary policy assessment. — 60%
• COMEX Copper (HG) front-month futures will settle at or above $4.20 per pound on at least one trading day by 2025-12-31 (UTC). — 54%
• NOAA SWPC will issue at least one R2 (Moderate) Radio Blackout alert by 2025-12-31 (UTC). — 57%
• Cboe SKEW Index will close at or above 145.0 on at least one trading day by 2025-12-31 (UTC). — 44%
• The UK will announce at least one Russia-related sanctions designation by 2025-12-31 via an official gov.uk press release (FCDO or HM Treasury/OFSI). — 60%
• Adobe’s December 2025 security updates will include at least one CVE with CVSS v3.x Base Score ≥ 9.0. — 56%
• The U.S. 30-Year Treasury yield (FRED: DGS30) will close at or below 4.25% on at least one trading day by 2025-12-31 (UTC). — 49%
• NYMEX Henry Hub Natural Gas front-month futures will settle at or above $3.50 per MMBtu on at least one trading day by 2025-12-31 (UTC). — 49%

2025-12-02 — 128 items — newsletter

• The Bank of Japan will raise its short-term policy rate target by at least 0.10 percentage point at its December 2025 monetary policy meeting. — 52%
• U.S. International Trade Balance (goods and services) for October 2025 will print between -$76.0B and -$84.0B. — 56%
• ISM Services (Non-Manufacturing) New Orders Index for November 2025 will print between 51.0 and 56.0. — 54%
• Google will publish a Chrome Stable Channel update in December 2025 acknowledging at least one CVE as 'exploited in the wild.' — 53%
• BTC/USD spot will trade at or below $56,000 on at least one UTC day by 2025-12-31. — 46%
• GIE AGSI+ will show EU-27 natural gas storage fill at or above 75.0% on 2025-12-31 (UTC). — 51%
• In at least one Weekly Petroleum Status Report released by 2025-12-31, U.S. distillate fuel oil stocks will increase by at least 3.0 million barrels week-over-week. — 44%
• Copernicus C3S will report November 2025 as the warmest November on record globally. — 58%
• OFAC will designate at least one cryptocurrency mixer or centralized exchange for sanctions (added to the SDN List) by 2025-12-31 (UTC). — 49%
• The U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield (FRED: DGS10) will close at or below 3.95% on at least one trading day by 2025-12-31 (UTC). — 47%
• Germany Factory Orders (October 2025, MoM, seasonally and calendar adjusted) will print between -1.0% and +1.0%. — 57%
• At the December 2025 FOMC meeting, the SEP median projection for 2026 Core PCE inflation will be between 2.2% and 2.6%. — 55%
• EIA's U.S. regular gasoline (all formulations) weekly retail price will be at or below $3.10 per gallon in the week of 2025-12-29. — 53%

2025-12-01 — 92 items — newsletter

• ISM Services PMI (U.S., headline) for November 2025 will print between 50.0 and 52.5. — 58%
• ISM Services Prices Index for November 2025 will print between 56.0 and 60.5. — 54%
• ADP National Employment Report will show U.S. private payrolls rose between +100,000 and +200,000 in November 2025. — 55%
• Seasonally adjusted U.S. Continuing Claims (Insured Unemployment) will print at or above 1.90 million in at least one Weekly Claims report released by 2025-12-31. — 52%
• The Federal Reserve will leave the federal funds target range unchanged at its December 2025 FOMC meeting. — 64%
• The Bank of England will leave Bank Rate unchanged at its December 2025 MPC meeting. — 62%
• COMEX Gold front-month futures will settle at or above $2,450.00 per troy ounce on at least one trading day by 2025-12-31 (UTC). — 47%
• BTC/USD spot will trade at or above $80,000 on at least one UTC day by 2025-12-31. — 42%
• USD/JPY spot will trade at or below 145.00 on at least one UTC day by 2025-12-31. — 45%
• Euro area (EA20) seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for November 2025 will print between 6.5% and 6.7%. — 63%
• EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report will show a Lower 48 net withdrawal of at least 100 Bcf in at least one report published by 2025-12-31. — 51%
• NIST NVD will publish at least 2 CVE entries with CVSS v3.x Base Score 10.0 between 2025-12-01 and 2025-12-31 (UTC), inclusive. — 56%

2025-11-30 — 80 items — newsletter

• U.S. Unemployment Rate (U-3, seasonally adjusted) for November 2025 will print between 3.8% and 4.2%. — 58%
• U.S. CPI (headline, YoY, NSA) for November 2025 will print between 3.0% and 3.4%. — 57%
• ISM Manufacturing Employment Index for November 2025 will print between 47.5 and 50.5. — 54%
• S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI Final (headline) for November 2025 will print between 51.0 and 52.3. — 55%
• UK Monthly GDP (October 2025, m/m, seasonally adjusted) will print between -0.2% and +0.2%. — 56%
• OFAC will announce at least one Venezuela-related sanctions designation by 2025-12-31 (UTC) via a U.S. Treasury press release. — 55%
• OpenAI will publish an official blog post or press release announcing the introduction of advertisements in ChatGPT for general users by 2025-12-31 (UTC). — 54%
• COMEX Silver front-month futures will settle at or above $32.00 per troy ounce on at least one trading day by 2025-12-31 (UTC). — 51%
• ICE Endex TTF front-month natural gas will settle at or above €50.00/MWh on at least one trading day by 2025-12-31 (UTC). — 44%
• The U.S. 2-Year Treasury yield (FRED: DGS2) will close at or below 4.25% on at least one trading day by 2025-12-31 (UTC). — 47%

2025-11-29 — 101 items — newsletter

• U.S. Core PCE Price Index (MoM, SA) for November 2025 will print between +0.1% and +0.3%. — 64%
• U.S. Advance Retail and Food Services Sales (headline, MoM, SA) for November 2025 will print between -0.3% and +0.3%. — 58%
• India CPI (Combined, YoY) for November 2025 will print between 4.6% and 5.4%. — 57%
• EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report will show U.S. commercial crude oil stocks (excluding SPR) declining by at least 8.0 million barrels in at least one report by 2025-12-31. — 47%
• ICE Arabica Coffee (KC) front-month futures will settle at or above 230.00 cents/lb on at least one trading day by 2025-12-31 (UTC). — 52%
• The U.S. 2s10s Treasury yield spread (FRED: T10Y2Y) will close at or above 0.00% on at least one trading day by 2025-12-31 (UTC). — 41%
• CISA will add at least 10 CVEs to the Known Exploited Vulnerabilities (KEV) catalog with Date Added between 2025-12-16 and 2025-12-31 inclusive. — 48%
• The EU will announce at least one new Iran-related sanctions designation by 2025-12-31 via an official Council press release or the Official Journal. — 56%
• Cboe VIX will close at or below 11.50 on at least one trading day by 2025-12-31 (UTC). — 49%
• Euro area (EA20) S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final for November 2025 will print between 46.0 and 48.0. — 62%
• Cisco PSIRT will publish at least one security advisory in December 2025 with a CVSS v3.x Base Score >= 9.0. — 60%
• NOAA SWPC will issue at least one G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm Watch or Warning by 2025-12-31 (UTC). — 65%

2025-11-28 — 100 items — newsletter

• UK CPI (12-month rate, headline) for November 2025 will print between 3.7% and 4.3%. — 58%
• U.S. PPI Final Demand (YoY, NSA) for November 2025 will print between 1.4% and 2.0%. — 55%
• Japan BoJ Tankan Q4 2025 Large Manufacturers Business Conditions DI will print between +8 and +14. — 56%
• China foreign exchange reserves (USD) for November 2025 will print between $3.14T and $3.20T. — 57%
• EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report will show 'Finished motor gasoline, product supplied' at or above 9.2 million b/d in at least one report published by 2025-12-31. — 44%
• From 2025-11-28 close to 2025-12-31 close, iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) adjusted-close total return will outperform SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) by at least 2.0 percentage points. — 48%
• NYMEX WTI front-month crude will settle at or above $82.00 per barrel on at least one trading day by 2025-12-31 (UTC). — 46%
• U.S. Housing Starts (SAAR, total) for November 2025 will print between 1.31 million and 1.42 million. — 56%
• U.S. Core CPI (MoM, SA; all items less food and energy) for November 2025 will print between +0.1% and +0.3% in the BLS release. — 62%
• Euro area S&P Global Services PMI Final (headline) for November 2025 will print between 48.5 and 50.5. — 55%
• The UK will announce at least one Iran-related sanctions designation by 2025-12-31 via an official gov.uk press release (FCDO or HM Treasury/OFSI). — 50%
• CISA will add at least 12 CVEs to the Known Exploited Vulnerabilities (KEV) catalog with Date Added between 2025-12-01 and 2025-12-15 inclusive. — 46%

2025-11-27 — 118 items — newsletter

• Japan Tokyo Core CPI (Ku-area, excluding fresh food, YoY) for November 2025 will print between 1.8% and 2.4%. — 60%
• Euro area (EA20) seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for October 2025 will print between 6.5% and 6.7%. — 64%
• China NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI (headline) for November 2025 will print between 50.2 and 51.6. — 56%
• Canada GDP (monthly, MoM, seasonally adjusted) for September 2025 will print between -0.2% and +0.2%. — 57%
• U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (change, SA) for November 2025 will print between +130,000 and +230,000. — 55%
• ISM Manufacturing Prices Index for November 2025 will print between 44.0 and 51.0. — 54%
• U.S. Average Weekly Hours of All Employees (Total Private, SA) for November 2025 will print between 34.2 and 34.4 hours. — 62%
• Google’s December 2025 Android Security Bulletin will include at least one CVE rated Critical with remote code execution impact. — 71%
• By 2025-12-31, OFAC will announce at least one Iran-related sanctions designation via an official U.S. Treasury press release. — 60%
• NASDAQ-100 Index (NDX) will close at a new all-time high on at least one trading day by 2025-12-31 (UTC). — 53%
• ERCOT system load will exceed 65,000 MW in at least one hour between 2025-12-01 and 2025-12-31 (CST). — 51%
• The Conference Board U.S. Consumer Confidence Index (headline) for December 2025 will print between 100.0 and 112.0. — 54%
• ICE Brent front-month crude will settle at or above $86.00 per barrel on at least one trading day by 2025-12-31 (UTC). — 47%

2025-11-26 — 138 items — newsletter

• Germany HICP flash inflation (YoY) for November 2025 will print between 2.4% and 2.9%. — 59%
• Spain HICP flash inflation (YoY) for November 2025 will print between 3.4% and 3.9%. — 57%
• U.S. headline PCE Price Index (YoY, SA) for October 2025 will print between 2.8% and 3.2% in the BEA release. — 59%
• U.S. JOLTS job openings for October 2025 will print between 7.0 million and 7.6 million. — 54%
• The ECB will leave the Deposit Facility Rate unchanged at 4.00% at its December 2025 meeting. — 61%
• OPEC+ will announce an extension of current additional voluntary oil production cuts into Q1 2026 (through at least March 2026). — 55%
• Apple will publish a security update by 2025-12-31 that notes at least one CVE as "may have been actively exploited." — 58%
• Cboe VIX will close at or above 19.0 on at least one trading day by 2025-12-31 (UTC). — 45%
• The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) will close at or above 105.50 on at least one trading day by 2025-12-31 (UTC). — 43%
• The EU will announce at least one new Russia-related sanctions designation by 2025-12-31 via an official Council press release or the Official Journal. — 61%
• Australia Monthly CPI Indicator for November 2025 will print between 3.6% and 4.1% (YoY). — 58%
• University of Michigan (preliminary) 1-year inflation expectations for December 2025 will print between 2.8% and 3.4%. — 56%
• China Caixin Services PMI for November 2025 will print between 50.4 and 52.0. — 55%
• EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report will show a U.S. motor gasoline stocks build of +4.0 million barrels or more in at least one report published by 2025-12-31. — 50%
• From 2025-11-26 close to 2025-12-31 close, Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) adjusted-close total return will outperform SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) by at least 1.5 percentage points. — 54%

2025-11-25 — 137 items — newsletter

• Eurostat will report euro area (EA20) Core HICP flash inflation (YoY) for November 2025 between 2.7% and 3.2%. — 56%
• U.S. Core PCE Price Index (YoY, SA) for October 2025 will print between 2.6% and 2.9% in the BEA release. — 58%
• China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (headline) for November 2025 will print between 50.0 and 51.0. — 55%
• Microsoft’s December 2025 Patch Tuesday will include at least one CVE marked as "Exploited: Yes" in the wild. — 57%
• CISA will add at least 10 CVEs to the Known Exploited Vulnerabilities (KEV) catalog with Date Added between 2025-12-01 and 2025-12-15 inclusive. — 52%
• Cboe VVIX Index will close at or above 105.0 on at least one trading day by 2025-12-15 (UTC). — 42%
• NYMEX Henry Hub front-month natural gas will settle at or above $3.60 per MMBtu on at least one trading day by 2025-12-31 (UTC). — 49%
• Daily sunspot number will reach at least 200 on at least one UTC day by 2025-12-31. — 52%
• Adobe Analytics will report U.S. Cyber Monday 2025 online spending of at least $13.0 billion. — 55%
• By 2025-12-31, OFAC will sanction at least one China-based entity for Russia-related evasion or support, via an official U.S. Treasury press release. — 58%
• The U.S. 10-Year breakeven inflation rate (FRED: T10YIE) will close at or above 2.50% on at least one trading day by 2025-12-31 (UTC). — 41%

2025-11-24 — 97 items — newsletter

• Eurostat will report euro area (EA20) HICP flash inflation (YoY) for November 2025 between 2.4% and 2.9%. — 58%
• China NBS Manufacturing PMI for November 2025 will print between 49.6 and 50.4. — 55%
• NOAA SWPC will issue at least one G3 (Strong) geomagnetic storm Watch or Warning by 2025-12-31 (UTC). — 52%
• Google will publish a Chrome Stable Channel update noting at least one CVE as "exploited in the wild" by 2025-12-31 (UTC). — 48%
• PJM will issue at least one Cold Weather Alert between 2025-12-01 and 2025-12-31 (Eastern Time). — 44%
• EUR/USD spot will trade at or above 1.1100 on at least one UTC day by 2025-12-31. — 46%
• The U.S. 10-Year breakeven inflation rate (FRED: T10YIE) will close at or below 2.20% on at least one trading day by 2025-12-31 (UTC). — 44%
• The U.S. 5-Year Treasury yield (FRED: DGS5) will close at or below 4.10% on at least one trading day by 2025-12-31 (UTC). — 47%
• ICE Endex EUA front-month futures will settle at or above €70.00 per tonne on at least one trading day by 2025-12-31 (UTC). — 43%
• U.S. TSA airport checkpoint throughput will reach at least 2,800,000 passengers on at least one U.S. calendar day between 2025-12-20 and 2025-12-31. — 60%
• S&P 500 Index (SPX) will close at a new all-time high on at least one trading day by 2025-12-31 (UTC). — 54%
• Seasonally adjusted U.S. Initial Jobless Claims will print at or above 240,000 in at least one Weekly Claims report released by 2025-12-31. — 45%

2025-11-23 — 102 items — newsletter

• ISM Manufacturing PMI (headline) for November 2025 will print between 48.5 and 50.5 in ISM’s official release. — 56%
• ISM Services PMI (headline) for November 2025 will print between 50.5 and 54.0 in ISM’s official release. — 57%
• U.S. TSA airport checkpoint throughput will reach at least 3,000,000 passengers on at least one U.S. calendar day between 2025-11-26 and 2025-12-01. — 63%
• ERCOT will issue at least one Conservation Appeal or Weather Watch between 2025-12-01 and 2025-12-31 (CST). — 55%
• EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report will show a net withdrawal of at least 100 Bcf in at least one report published by 2025-12-31. — 52%
• NYMEX RBOB gasoline front-month futures will settle at or below $2.05 per gallon on at least one trading day by 2025-12-31 (UTC). — 43%
• The U.S. 30-Year Treasury yield (FRED: DGS30) will close at or below 4.25% on at least one trading day by 2025-12-31 (UTC). — 44%
• The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) will close at or below 102.0 on at least one trading day by 2025-12-31 (UTC). — 45%
• COMEX Gold front-month futures will settle at or above $2,350 per troy ounce on at least one trading day by 2025-12-31 (UTC). — 46%
• Bitcoin (BTC-USD) will trade at or above $92,000 on at least one UTC day by 2025-12-31. — 38%
• At least 15 FAA-licensed U.S. commercial orbital launches will occur between 2025-12-01 00:00 UTC and 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC. — 41%
• U.S. Average Hourly Earnings (total private, MoM, SA) for November 2025 will print between +0.2% and +0.4% in the BLS Employment Situation report. — 57%

2025-11-22 — 132 items — newsletter

• ADP National Employment Report will show U.S. private-sector payroll change for November 2025 between +130,000 and +220,000. — 57%
• The U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield (FRED: DGS10) will close at or below 3.90% on at least one trading day by 2025-12-31 (UTC). — 43%
• S&P 500 Index (SPX) will close down by at least 1.8% in a single session on or before 2025-12-20 (UTC). — 45%
• Bitcoin (BTC-USD) will trade at or below $75,000 on at least one UTC day by 2025-12-31. — 46%
• ICE Endex Dutch TTF front-month natural gas will settle at or below €35.00/MWh on at least one trading day by 2025-12-31 (UTC). — 37%
• CISA will add at least 20 CVEs to the Known Exploited Vulnerabilities (KEV) catalog with a Date Added between 2025-11-22 and 2025-12-10 inclusive. — 53%
• By 2025-12-20, the U.K. government will announce at least one new Russia-related sanctions designation via an official gov.uk press release. — 62%
• Federal Reserve ON RRP facility usage will fall to at or below $25.0 billion on at least one business day by 2025-12-31 (New York time). — 44%
• ERCOT hourly wind generation will reach at least 38,500 MW on at least one hour by 2025-12-31 (CST). — 36%
• From 2025-11-22 close to 2025-12-31 close, Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) adjusted-close total return will underperform SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) by at least 1.5 percentage points. — 55%

2025-11-21 — 145 items — newsletter

• U.S. CPI (All items, 12-month percent change) for November 2025 will print between 2.8% and 3.4% in the BLS release. — 58%
• The U.S. unemployment rate (U-3, seasonally adjusted) for November 2025 will print between 4.3% and 4.6% in the BLS Employment Situation report. — 57%
• U.S. Advance Retail and Food Services Sales (headline, MoM, SA) for November 2025 will print between -0.4% and +0.4% in the Census release. — 52%
• Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) will close at or below 13.00 on at least one trading day by 2025-12-31 (UTC). — 45%
• The U.S. 2-Year Treasury yield (FRED: DGS2) will close at or below 4.40% on at least one trading day by 2025-12-31 (UTC). — 46%
• The Brent–WTI front-month settlement spread will close at or below $2.00 per barrel on at least one trading day by 2025-12-31 (UTC). — 38%
• ERCOT hourly wind generation will reach at least 36,500 MW on at least one hour by 2025-12-31 (CST). — 48%
• By 2025-12-31, OFAC will announce at least one North Korea-related sanctions designation via an official U.S. Treasury press release. — 58%
• By 2025-12-31, CISA will add at least 25 CVEs to the Known Exploited Vulnerabilities (KEV) catalog with a Date Added between 2025-12-16 and 2025-12-31 inclusive. — 46%
• Bitcoin (BTC-USD) will trade at or below $80,000 on at least one UTC day by 2025-12-31. — 49%
• The ICE BofA MOVE Index will close at or below 75.0 on at least one trading day by 2025-12-31 (UTC). — 43%
• Federal Reserve ON RRP facility usage will fall to at or below $50.0 billion on at least one business day by 2025-12-31 (New York time). — 52%
• EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report will show a weekly change in U.S. distillate fuel oil stocks of -4.0 million barrels or more (draw) in at least one report published by 2025-12-31. — 49%

2025-11-20 — 144 items — newsletter

• U.S. Core CPI (All items less food and energy, MoM, SA) for November 2025 will print between +0.1% and +0.3% in the BLS release. — 56%
• The U.S. 10Y–2Y Treasury yield spread (FRED: T10Y2Y) will close at or above 0.00 percentage points on at least one trading day by 2025-12-31 (UTC). — 41%
• ICE Brent front-month crude will settle at or below $78.00 per barrel on at least one trading day by 2025-12-31 (UTC). — 44%
• At least five FAA-licensed U.S. commercial orbital launches will occur between 2025-12-21 00:00 UTC and 2025-12-31 23:59 UTC. — 39%
• In CDC NREVSS, national RSV test positivity will reach at or above 10.0% in at least one weekly report released by 2025-12-31. — 66%
• University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment (preliminary) for December 2025 will print between 95.0 and 104.0. — 54%
• CME FedWatch Tool implied probability of a 25 bp rate cut at the January 2026 FOMC meeting will close at or above 40% on at least one trading day by 2025-12-31. — 52%
• Cboe VVIX Index will close at or below 85.0 on at least one trading day by 2025-12-31 (UTC). — 51%
• ERCOT hourly wind generation will reach at least 34,500 MW on at least one hour by 2025-12-31 (CST). — 44%
• By 2025-12-31, OFAC will announce at least one Houthi/Ansarallah-related sanctions designation via an official U.S. Treasury press release. — 60%

2025-11-19 — 140 items — newsletter

• U.S. Core PCE Price Index (MoM, SA) for October 2025 will print between +0.1% and +0.3% in the BEA release. — 58%
• The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for November 2025 will print between 96.0 and 105.0. — 55%
• The U.S. 10Y–2Y Treasury yield spread (FRED: T10Y2Y) will close at or above -0.10 percentage points on at least one trading day by 2025-12-31 (UTC). — 52%
• From 2025-11-19 close to 2025-12-31 close, SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) adjusted-close total return will underperform SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) by at least 2.0 percentage points. — 53%
• By 2025-12-31, OFAC will announce at least one Iran-related sanctions designation via an official U.S. Treasury press release. — 65%
• By 2025-12-31, CISA will issue at least one new Emergency Directive to federal civilian agencies. — 36%
• EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report will show a weekly change in U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding SPR) of -6.0 million barrels or more (draw) in at least one report published by 2025-12-31. — 45%
• In CDC FluView, the national outpatient ILI percentage will reach at or above 3.0% in at least one weekly report released by 2025-12-20. — 62%
• U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (headline change, SA) for November 2025 will print between +90,000 and +190,000 in the BLS Employment Situation report. — 55%
• By 2025-12-31, Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, or Meta will announce a definitive agreement to acquire a company with a disclosed transaction value of at least $500 million. — 42%
• The AAA U.S. national average price for regular gasoline will print at or below $2.90 per gallon on at least one reporting date by 2025-12-31. — 39%
• The Brent–WTI front-month settlement spread will close at or above $5.00 per barrel on at least one trading day by 2025-12-31 (UTC). — 57%

2025-11-18 — 140 items — newsletter

• Bitcoin (BTC-USD) will trade at or below $85,000 on at least one UTC day by 2025-11-30. — 47%
• Adobe Analytics will report U.S. Thanksgiving Day 2025 online spending of at least $6.2 billion. — 56%
• Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) will close at or above 20.00 on at least one trading day by 2025-12-15 (UTC). — 60%
• ERCOT hourly wind generation will reach at least 32,000 MW on at least one hour by 2025-12-31 (CST). — 54%
• By 2025-12-15, U.S. Central Command will publicly announce at least one strike against Iran-aligned militia targets in Iraq or Syria. — 58%
• By 2025-12-05, Amazon Web Services will announce a new generation of its Trainium accelerator (e.g., Trainium 3) via an AWS News Blog post or press release during re:Invent. — 55%
• By 2025-12-31, CISA will add at least 20 CVEs to the Known Exploited Vulnerabilities (KEV) catalog with a Date Added between 2025-12-16 and 2025-12-31 inclusive. — 52%
• The AAA U.S. national average price for regular gasoline will print at or below $2.95 per gallon on at least one reporting date by 2025-12-31. — 41%
• The U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield (FRED: DGS10) will close at or below 4.00% on at least one trading day by 2025-12-31 (UTC). — 42%
• By 2025-12-20, the Council of the European Union will adopt a new Russia sanctions package, confirmed via an official Council press release. — 61%
• Seasonally adjusted U.S. insured unemployment (continuing claims) will print at or above 1,900,000 in at least one Weekly Claims report released by 2025-12-31. — 54%

2025-11-17 — 94 items — newsletter

• On the first trading day after its Q3 FY2026 earnings release, Nvidia (NVDA) will post an absolute adjusted-close return of at least 8.0%. — 52%
• Adobe Analytics will report U.S. Black Friday 2025 online spending of at least $10.5 billion. — 58%
• Adobe Analytics will report U.S. Cyber Monday 2025 online spending of at least $13.0 billion. — 54%
• EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report will show a weekly change in U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding SPR) of +8.0 million barrels or more in at least one report published by 2025-12-31. — 38%
• The U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield (FRED: DGS10) will close at or below 4.10% on at least one trading day by 2025-12-31 (UTC). — 45%
• Federal Reserve ON RRP facility usage will fall to at or below $100.0 billion on at least one business day by 2025-12-31 (New York time). — 47%
• By 2025-12-31, OFAC will announce at least one Hamas-related SDGT designation via an official U.S. Treasury press release. — 57%
• By 2025-12-15, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) will publicly announce at least one strike against Houthi or affiliated targets in the Red Sea or Gulf of Aden. — 62%
• From 2025-11-18 close to 2025-12-10 close, Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK) adjusted-close total return will underperform SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) by at least 2.0 percentage points. — 44%
• In CDC FluView, at least 10 U.S. states will be categorized 'Very High' ILI activity in any weekly report released by 2025-12-20. — 60%
• By 2025-12-31, a North America-based manufacturer will announce a new LFP battery cell production project in the U.S. or Canada with stated annual capacity of at least 10 GWh via an official press release. — 43%

2025-11-16 — 74 items — newsletter

• From 2025-11-18 close to 2025-12-13 close, Apple Inc. (AAPL) adjusted-close total return will underperform Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) by at least 2.0 percentage points. — 55%
• CAISO daily peak system load will reach at least 33,000 MW on at least one day between 2025-11-22 and 2025-12-10 (U.S. dates). — 41%
• Cboe VVIX Index will close at or above 105.0 on at least one trading day by 2025-12-15 (UTC). — 42%
• The U.S. 2-Year Treasury yield (FRED: DGS2) will close at or below 4.65% on at least one trading day by 2025-12-15 (UTC). — 52%
• By 2025-12-15, CISA will add at least 10 CVEs to the Known Exploited Vulnerabilities (KEV) catalog with a Date Added between 2025-12-01 and 2025-12-15 inclusive. — 56%
• By 2025-12-15, OFAC will announce at least one Russia-related sanctions designation via an official U.S. Treasury press release. — 63%
• EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report will show a weekly change in U.S. distillate fuel oil stocks of -3.0 million barrels or more (draw) in at least one report published by 2025-12-15. — 58%
• By 2025-12-31, Google, Meta, Microsoft, or Amazon will announce a new transoceanic subsea cable project or a named capacity expansion of an existing system via an official corporate blog or press release. — 47%
• From 2025-11-16 close to 2025-12-31 close, iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) will underperform SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) by at least 2.5 percentage points on an adjusted-close basis. — 46%
• U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims (seasonally adjusted) will print at or above 235,000 in at least one weekly report released by 2025-12-31. — 58%
• NYMEX Henry Hub front-month natural gas futures (CME: NG) will settle at or below $3.10 per MMBtu on at least one trading day by 2025-12-31 (UTC). — 44%
• The U.S. 5-Year TIPS real yield (FRED: DFII5) will close at or below 1.80% on at least one trading day by 2025-12-31 (UTC). — 49%

2025-11-15 — 130 items — newsletter

• COMEX gold front-month futures (CME: GC) will settle at or above $4,200.00 per troy ounce on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 55%
• ICE Brent front-month crude will settle at or above $86.00 per barrel on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 52%
• Bitcoin (BTC-USD) will trade at or below $90,000 on at least one UTC day by 2025-11-30. — 54%
• From 2025-11-15 close to 2025-12-15 close, Alphabet Inc. Class A (GOOGL) adjusted-close total return will outperform SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) by at least 2.0 percentage points. — 53%
• The AAA U.S. national average price for regular gasoline will print at or below $3.00 per gallon on at least one reporting date by 2025-12-31. — 50%
• TSA daily U.S. checkpoint throughput will reach at least 3,200,000 passengers on at least one day between 2025-11-22 and 2025-12-01 (U.S. reporting dates). — 38%
• Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) will close at or above 24.00 on at least one trading day by 2025-12-15 (UTC). — 44%
• By 2025-12-15, OFAC will announce at least one new Venezuela-related sanctions designation via an official U.S. Treasury press release. — 45%
• By 2025-12-15, WhatsApp will enable third-party chat integration for users in the EU, confirmed via an official WhatsApp or Meta blog/help-center post. — 54%
• The ICE BofA MOVE Index will close at or below 85.0 on at least one trading day by 2025-12-31 (UTC). — 47%
• ICE Endex Dutch TTF front-month natural gas will settle at or above €45.00/MWh on at least one trading day by 2025-12-31 (UTC). — 36%

2025-11-14 — 139 items — newsletter

• University of Michigan 5- to 10-year inflation expectations (preliminary) for November 2025 will print between 2.8% and 3.1%. — 54%
• The AAA national average regular gasoline price will print at or below $3.05 per gallon on at least one U.S. reporting date by 2025-11-30. — 49%
• The U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield (FRED: DGS10) will close at or above 4.60% on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 58%
• The Cboe SKEW Index (SKEW) will close at or above 150.0 on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 34%
• By 2025-12-10, OFAC will announce at least one new Global Magnitsky (GLOMAG) sanctions designation via an official U.S. Treasury press release. — 68%
• EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage report will show a net change of -50 Bcf or lower (withdrawal ≥ 50 Bcf) in at least one report published by 2025-12-15. — 60%
• ICE Endex Dutch TTF front-month natural gas will settle at or below €30.00/MWh on at least one trading day by 2025-12-15 (UTC). — 41%
• CME FedWatch Tool implied probability of a hold (no rate change) at the December 2025 FOMC meeting will close below 20% on at least one trading day by 2025-12-10. — 38%
• TSA daily U.S. checkpoint throughput will reach at least 3,150,000 passengers on at least one day between 2025-11-22 and 2025-12-01 (U.S. reporting dates). — 33%
• At least six FAA-licensed U.S. commercial orbital launches will occur between 2025-12-01 00:00 UTC and 2025-12-20 23:59 UTC. — 57%
• At least one U.S. IPO priced between 2025-11-15 and 2025-12-31 will price below the bottom of its marketed range. — 65%
• NYMEX Henry Hub front-month natural gas futures (CME: NG) will settle at or above $3.75 per MMBtu on at least one trading day by 2025-12-15 (UTC). — 52%

2025-11-13 — 147 items — newsletter

• By 2025-11-30, CISA will add at least 15 CVEs to its Known Exploited Vulnerabilities (KEV) catalog. — 60%
• The AAA national average regular gasoline price will print at or below $3.10 per gallon on at least one U.S. reporting date by 2025-11-30. — 57%
• U.S. Retail Sales (headline, MoM, SA) for October 2025 will print between -0.4% and +0.2% in the advance report. — 56%
• U.S. PPI Final Demand (MoM, SA) for October 2025 will print between -0.2% and +0.2% in the BLS release. — 55%
• At least three FAA-licensed U.S. commercial orbital launches will occur between 2025-11-21 00:00 UTC and 2025-12-05 23:59 UTC. — 64%
• By 2025-11-30, OFAC will add at least one person or entity to the SDN List under the CYBER program. — 48%
• The Cboe SKEW Index will close at or below 120.0 on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 54%
• CME FedWatch Tool implied probability of a December 2025 25 bp rate cut will close below 45% on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30. — 49%
• On at least one U.S. date between 2025-11-22 and 2025-12-01, FlightAware will report at least 25,000 total delays within/into/out of the United States. — 58%
• By 2025-12-31, a U.S. hyperscaler (Amazon, Microsoft, Google, or Meta) will announce a new U.S. renewable energy PPA of at least 600 MW nameplate capacity. — 43%

2025-11-12 — 118 items — newsletter

• NOAA SWPC will record at least one G3 (Kp≥7) or higher geomagnetic storm between 2025-11-12 and 2025-11-15 (UTC). — 48%
• On at least one U.S. date by 2025-11-24, FlightAware will report ≥2,500 cancellations within/into/out of the United States. — 44%
• By 2025-11-30, the European Commission will publish a formal legislative proposal to phase out Huawei and/or ZTE equipment from EU telecom networks. — 35%
• By 2025-11-30, Walmart U.S. or Kroger will announce broad multi-category price reductions (≥500 items) via an official newsroom post or press release. — 46%
• By 2025-11-30, CISA will issue at least one new Emergency Directive to federal civilian agencies. — 33%
• By 2025-11-30, at least one Fortune 500 company will file an SEC Form 8-K disclosing a material cybersecurity incident under Item 1.05. — 56%
• From 2025-11-12 close to 2025-11-30 close, iShares Russell 1000 Value (IWD) will outperform iShares Russell 1000 Growth (IWF) by ≥1.5 percentage points on an adjusted-close basis. — 52%
• The ICE BofA MOVE Index will close at or above 100.0 on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 46%
• NYMEX WTI front-month futures (CL) will settle at or below $76.00 per barrel on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 44%
• By 2025-11-30, OFAC will announce at least one DPRK-related sanctions designation via an official U.S. Treasury press release. — 45%
• EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report will show a weekly change in U.S. motor gasoline stocks of +4.0 million barrels or more in at least one report published by 2025-11-30. — 41%

2025-11-11 — 142 items — newsletter

• By 2025-11-14, the U.S. federal government shutdown will end via an enacted CR or appropriations bill signed by the President. — 68%
• By 2025-11-30, OFAC will announce at least one new Iran-related sanctions designation via a Treasury press release. — 62%
• By 2025-12-31, FDA/CDER will remove the boxed warning from labeling of at least one menopausal hormone therapy (MHT) product. — 58%
• The U.S. 3M–10Y Treasury yield spread will steepen by at least 20 bps between 2025-11-07 close and any FRED observation on or before 2025-11-30. — 47%
• U.S. Retail Sales control group (ex autos, gas, building materials, and food services) MoM SA for October 2025 will print between -0.2% and +0.2% in the advance report due mid-November. — 55%
• ERCOT daily peak load will reach at least 65,000 MW on at least one day between 2025-11-22 and 2025-12-10 (U.S. dates). — 41%
• By 2025-12-31, at least one top-10 U.S. card issuer will announce a reduction in credit-card rewards value (earn rate cut, category cap, or higher redemption prices). — 52%
• Ethereum (ETH-USD) will trade at or above $3,600 on at least one UTC day by 2025-11-30. — 49%
• EIA will report at least one weekly U.S. propane/propylene stock change of -2.0 million barrels or more (draw) by 2025-11-30. — 56%
• The FOMC will cut the federal funds target range by 25 bps at its December 2025 meeting (announcement by 2025-12-12). — 57%

2025-11-10 — 93 items — newsletter

• At least one FAA-licensed U.S. commercial orbital launch will occur between 2025-11-10 00:00 UTC and 2025-11-20 23:59 UTC. — 59%
• Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) will close at or above 20.00 on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 43%
• U.S. CPI Gasoline (all types) index (MoM, SA) for October 2025 will print between -2.5% and -0.5% in the mid-November BLS release. — 60%
• EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage will report at least one net withdrawal of ≥20 Bcf in a report published by 2025-11-30. — 41%
• University of Michigan 1-year inflation expectations (preliminary) for November 2025 will print between 3.1% and 3.8%. — 55%
• Bitcoin (BTC-USD) will trade at or above $100,000 on at least one UTC day by 2025-11-30. — 51%
• Brent crude front-month will settle at or below $78.00 per barrel on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 45%
• U.S. 10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate (FRED: T10YIE) will close at or below 2.20% on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 44%
• By 2025-12-31, at least one additional U.S. state legislature will formally introduce a bill or resolution that uses the phrase "right to compute" in its title or summary. — 42%
• U.S. Core PCE Price Index (MoM, SA) for October 2025 will print between 0.16% and 0.24% in the BEA release due late November. — 58%
• U.S. field production of crude oil (EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report) will print at or above 13.4 million b/d in at least one report by 2025-11-30. — 55%
• The Cboe equity-only put/call ratio (CPCE) will close at or below 0.55 on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 53%

2025-11-09 — 84 items — newsletter

• U.S. CPI excluding food and energy (core, MoM, SA) for October 2025 will print between +0.2% and +0.3% in the BLS release due mid-November. — 55%
• From 2025-11-09 close to 2025-11-30 close, Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) will outperform SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) by at least 1.0 percentage point on an adjusted-close basis. — 57%
• ICE Endex Dutch TTF front-month natural gas will settle at or below €35.00/MWh on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 42%
• The U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield (FRED: DGS10) will close at or below 4.25% on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 49%
• NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for October 2025 will print between 90.0 and 92.5. — 58%
• By 2025-11-30, the U.S. Treasury’s OFAC will announce at least one new China-related sanctions designation via an official Treasury press release. — 60%
• By 2025-11-30, Google, Meta, Microsoft, or Amazon will announce a new transoceanic subsea cable project or named system capacity expansion via an official corporate blog or press release. — 38%
• Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) will close at or below 14.50 on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 44%
• EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report will show a weekly change in U.S. commercial crude oil stocks of +8.0 million barrels or more in at least one report published by 2025-11-30. — 36%
• TSA daily U.S. checkpoint throughput will reach at least 3,000,000 passengers on at least one day between 2025-11-22 and 2025-12-01 (U.S. reporting dates). — 58%

2025-11-08 — 124 items — newsletter

• As of 2025-11-12 00:00 UTC, a lapse in U.S. federal appropriations will still be in effect (no enacted funding measure reopening the government). — 54%
• No FAA-licensed U.S. commercial orbital launches will occur between 2025-11-06 00:00 UTC and 2025-11-20 23:59 UTC. — 61%
• The U.S. 2-Year Treasury yield (FRED: DGS2) will close at or below 4.20% on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 46%
• From 2025-11-08 close to 2025-11-30 close, the PHLX Semiconductor Index (SOX) will underperform SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) by at least 2.0 percentage points on an adjusted-close basis. — 55%
• By 2025-11-30, Eli Lilly (LLY) or Novo Nordisk (NVO) will announce at least one new U.S. payer coverage expansion agreement for an obesity drug via company press release or SEC 8-K. — 57%
• By 2025-11-30, at least one U.S. federal civilian agency (non-DoD) will publicly disclose a material cybersecurity incident affecting operations via a press release, bulletin, or notice. — 64%
• EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report will show a weekly change in U.S. distillate fuel oil stocks of +2.5 million barrels or more in at least one report published by 2025-11-30. — 48%
• The Cboe equity-only put/call ratio (CPCE) will close at or above 0.85 on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 53%
• University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment (preliminary) for November 2025 will print at or below 72.0. — 51%
• By 2025-11-30, the U.S. Treasury’s OFAC will announce at least one new Russia-related sanctions designation via an official press release. — 66%

2025-11-07 — 144 items — newsletter

• U.S. CPI (headline, MoM, SA) for October 2025 will print between -0.1% and +0.2% in the BLS release due mid-November. — 55%
• U.S. Unemployment Rate (U-3) for October 2025 will print between 4.2% and 4.4% in the Employment Situation report due 2025-11-08. — 57%
• Seasonally adjusted U.S. Initial Jobless Claims will print at or above 245,000 in at least one weekly Department of Labor release by 2025-11-30. — 52%
• From 2025-11-06 close to 2025-11-30 close, Tesla (TSLA) will underperform SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) by at least 5.0 percentage points on an adjusted-close basis. — 53%
• By 2025-11-15, on at least one day, FlightAware will report ≥20% of flights delayed at EWR, LGA, or JFK. — 58%
• The Federal Reserve will announce at least one additional formal enforcement action (e.g., consent order, written agreement) by 2025-11-30. — 65%
• U.S. 5-Year, 5-Year Forward Inflation Expectation Rate (FRED: T5YIFR) will close at or below 2.20% on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 45%
• NY Harbor RBOB Gasoline front-month futures (CME: RB) will settle at or below $2.10 per gallon on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 49%
• EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage will show at least one net withdrawal of ≥5 Bcf in a report published by 2025-11-30. — 62%
• By 2025-11-30, the U.S. Treasury’s OFAC will announce at least one new Venezuela-related sanctions designation. — 52%
• By 2025-11-30, Meta will announce enhanced advertiser verification or disclosure rules targeting scam/fraud ads (e.g., stricter ID checks or certifications) via an official Meta newsroom or policy update. — 40%
• Cboe Nasdaq-100 Volatility Index (VXN) will close at or above 28.00 on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 36%

2025-11-06 — 141 items — newsletter

• ISM Services PMI (headline) for October 2025 will print between 51.0 and 53.5. — 56%
• Google will close its $32B acquisition of Wiz by 2026-03-31. — 66%
• The TSA 7-day moving average of U.S. checkpoint throughput will be at least 5% below the comparable 2024 7-day average on at least one day by 2025-11-20. — 54%
• From 2025-11-06 close to 2025-11-30 close, U.S. Global Jets ETF (JETS) will underperform SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) by at least 2.0 percentage points on an adjusted-close basis. — 57%
• The U.S. 2-Year Treasury yield (FRED: DGS2) will close at or below 4.40% on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 52%
• Cboe VVIX Index will close at or above 100.0 on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 40%
• COMEX Copper front-month futures (HG) will settle at or above $4.00 per pound on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 46%
• Silver (XAGUSD spot) will trade at or above $30.00 on at least one UTC day by 2025-11-30. — 44%
• U.S. motor gasoline product supplied (4-week average) will print at or below 8.60 million b/d in at least one EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report by 2025-11-30. — 47%
• EUR/USD will trade at or below 1.0600 on at least one UTC day by 2025-11-30. — 41%

2025-11-05 — 146 items — newsletter

• U.S. nonfarm payrolls (total, SA) for October 2025 will print between +130,000 and +190,000 in the BLS Employment Situation release due 2025-11-07. — 54%
• U.S. insured unemployment (continuing claims, seasonally adjusted) will print at or above 1.90 million in at least one weekly Department of Labor report by 2025-11-30. — 52%
• Bitcoin (BTC-USD) will trade at or below $88,000 on at least one UTC day by 2025-11-30. — 47%
• PHLX Semiconductor Index (SOX) will close at or below 4,600 on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 38%
• The U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield (FRED: DGS10) will close at or above 4.75% on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 46%
• ICE Endex Dutch TTF front-month natural gas will settle at or above €45.00/MWh on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 44%
• By 2025-11-30, the UN Security Council will adopt a resolution explicitly authorizing a Gaza stabilization or peacekeeping force with a mandate of at least 12 months. — 20%
• By 2025-11-30, Sudan will experience at least one nationwide or multi-region internet blackout lasting 12 or more consecutive hours, as reported by NetBlocks or Cloudflare Radar. — 40%
• By 2025-11-30, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security will publish in the Federal Register a Notice of Proposed Rulemaking to expand biometric collection to include at least one of iris scans or DNA. — 35%
• Cboe Nasdaq-100 Volatility Index (VXN) will close at or above 25.00 on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 42%
• As of 2025-11-10 00:00 UTC, a lapse in U.S. federal appropriations will still be in effect (the government shutdown will not yet have ended). — 33%
• CME Henry Hub natural gas front-month futures (NG) will settle at or below $2.80 per MMBtu on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 37%

2025-11-04 — 145 items — newsletter

• Gold (XAUUSD spot) will trade at or above $2,450 on at least one UTC day by 2025-11-30. — 46%
• ICE BofA US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread (FRED: BAMLH0A0HYM2) will close at or above 4.75% on at least one day by 2025-11-30. — 45%
• PHLX Semiconductor Index (SOX) will close at or above 5,300 on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 48%
• U.S. AAA national average regular gasoline will be at or below $3.15/gal in at least one daily reading by 2025-11-30. — 52%
• Cboe SKEW Index will close at or below 120.0 on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 55%
• U.S. 3-Month Treasury bill yield (FRED: DGS3MO) will close at or below 5.20% on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 44%
• EUR/USD will trade at or above 1.1000 on at least one UTC day by 2025-11-30. — 43%
• Ethereum (ETH-USD) will trade at or below $2,700 on at least one UTC day by 2025-11-30. — 47%
• By 2025-11-08, Congress will pass and the President will sign a funding measure (CR or appropriations) that reopens the federal government through at least 2025-11-30. — 67%
• ISM Services Employment Index for October 2025 will print between 50.0 and 52.0. — 56%
• U.S. CPI Owners’ Equivalent Rent (OER, MoM, SA) for October 2025 will print between 0.3% and 0.4% in the BLS release due mid-November. — 54%
• U.S. On-Highway Diesel Fuel (EIA national average) will be at or below $3.95/gal in at least one weekly update by 2025-11-30. — 51%

2025-11-03 — 89 items — newsletter

• CNN Fear & Greed Index will register at or above 75 (Greed/Extreme Greed) on at least one day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 59%
• U.S. Advance Retail Sales Control Group (MoM, SA) for October 2025 will print between -0.2% and +0.2%. — 56%
• U.S. Producer Price Index (headline, MoM, SA) for October 2025 will print between -0.1% and +0.3%. — 57%
• The U.S. 10Y–2Y Treasury yield spread (FRED: T10Y2Y) will reach at or above -0.10 percentage points on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 44%
• Freddie Mac PMMS 30-year fixed mortgage rate will print at or below 7.00% in at least one weekly survey by 2025-11-30. — 45%
• By 2025-11-30, OPEC+ will formally announce a December 2025 crude supply increase between 0.2 and 0.6 million bpd versus November levels. — 54%
• NYMEX WTI crude oil front-month futures (CL) will settle at or above $86.00 per barrel on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 42%
• KRX KOSPI Index (^KS11) will close at or above 2,550.0 on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 51%
• By 2025-11-30, China’s MOFCOM will publish an official notice easing at least one rare-earth export restriction introduced in 2024–2025. — 58%
• University of Michigan 5-year inflation expectations (preliminary) for November 2025 will print between 2.8% and 3.2%. — 55%

2025-11-02 — 84 items — newsletter

• The U.S. 30-Year Treasury yield (FRED: DGS30) will close at or below 4.50% on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 54%
• ICE BofA MOVE Index will close at or below 95.0 on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 49%
• Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) will close at or above 20.00 on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 46%
• ICE Brent crude oil front-month futures will settle at or above $90.00 per barrel on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 44%
• Ethereum (ETH-USD) will trade at or above $3,400 on at least one UTC day by 2025-11-30. — 45%
• USD/CNH (CNH=X) will trade at or below 7.2500 on at least one UTC trading day by 2025-11-30. — 43%
• The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for November 2025 will print between 97.0 and 104.0. — 55%
• U.S. Average Hourly Earnings (total private, MoM, SA) for October 2025 will print between +0.2% and +0.3% in the BLS Employment Situation report due 2025-11-07. — 58%
• U.S. Producer Price Index excluding food and energy (core, MoM, SA) for October 2025 will print between +0.1% and +0.3%. — 56%
• Atlanta Fed GDPNow nowcast for 2025 Q4 real GDP growth (SAAR) will print at or below 1.5% in at least one update by 2025-11-30. — 47%
• By 2025-11-30, OPEC+ will announce an official extension of current voluntary oil production cuts into Q1 2026. — 55%
• AdvisorShares Pure US Cannabis ETF (MSOS) will close at or above $12.00 on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 49%

2025-11-01 — 124 items — newsletter

• ISM Services Prices Index for October 2025 will print at or above 57.0. — 56%
• U.S. CPI (core, MoM, SA) for October 2025 will print between 0.2% and 0.3%. — 58%
• University of Michigan 1-year inflation expectations (prelim) for November 2025 will print between 3.0% and 3.5%. — 55%
• EIA Lower 48 working natural gas in storage will reach at or above 4.00 Tcf in at least one weekly report by 2025-11-30. — 45%
• Bitcoin (BTC-USD) will trade at or above $78,000 on at least one UTC day by 2025-11-30. — 46%
• The U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield (FRED: DGS10) will close at or below 4.25% on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30. — 53%
• USD/JPY (JPY=X) will trade at or below 148.00 on at least one UTC trading day by 2025-11-30. — 42%
• ICE Endex Dutch TTF front-month natural gas will settle at or below €35.00/MWh on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 43%
• By 2025-11-30, ExxonMobil will announce a formal agreement or MOU to supply power and/or carbon management services to at least one U.S. AI data center operator. — 44%
• U.S. JOLTS Quits Rate (total, SA) for September 2025 will print between 2.1% and 2.3%. — 56%
• U.S. PCE Price Index excluding food and energy (core, MoM, SA) for October 2025 will print between 0.1% and 0.2%. — 57%
• From 2025-10-31 close to 2025-11-30 close, Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) will underperform SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) by at least 1.5 percentage points on an adjusted-close basis. — 54%

2025-10-31 — 133 items — newsletter

• U.S. JOLTS Job Openings (total, SA) for September 2025 will print between 7.2 million and 7.6 million. — 55%
• ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index for October 2025 will print between 49.0 and 52.0. — 56%
• University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (preliminary) for November 2025 will print between 64.0 and 68.0. — 54%
• ADP National Employment Report for October 2025 will show a change between +120,000 and +190,000 jobs. — 55%
• EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report will show at least one weekly build of U.S. commercial crude (ex-SPR) of +5.0 million barrels or more by 2025-11-30. — 44%
• CME Henry Hub natural gas front-month futures will settle at or above $3.50 per MMBtu on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 42%
• The S&P 500 Index (^GSPC) will close down at least 2.0% day-over-day on at least one UTC trading day by 2025-11-30. — 48%
• USD/CNH (CNH=X) will trade at or above 7.3500 on at least one UTC trading day by 2025-11-30. — 46%
• By 2025-11-30, NVIDIA will announce via official press release or SEC filing an equity investment in Poolside AI. — 44%
• U.S. PCE Price Index (headline, YoY, SA) for October 2025 will print between 2.6% and 2.9%. — 57%
• China Caixin Services PMI for October 2025 will print between 51.0 and 52.5. — 55%
• NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for October 2025 will print between 90.0 and 92.5. — 56%
• Freddie Mac PMMS 30-year fixed mortgage rate will print at or above 7.30% in at least one weekly survey by 2025-11-30. — 52%

2025-10-30 — 142 items — newsletter

• Euro area HICP (headline, YoY, flash) for October 2025 will print between 2.1% and 2.5%, per Eurostat. — 55%
• ISM Manufacturing Employment Index for October 2025 will print between 47.0 and 50.0. — 54%
• U.S. Average Hourly Earnings (total private, YoY, SA) for October 2025 will print between 3.7% and 4.1% in the BLS Employment Situation release due 2025-11-07. — 58%
• U.S. CPI (headline, MoM, SA) for October 2025 will print between 0.0% and 0.2% in the BLS release due by mid-November. — 57%
• Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) will close at or below 12.50 on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 38%
• ICE U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) will close at or above 107.00 on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 44%
• ICE Brent crude oil front-month futures will settle at or below $82.00 per barrel on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 47%
• U.S. initial jobless claims (seasonally adjusted, headline) will print at or below 205,000 in at least one weekly Department of Labor report by 2025-11-30. — 40%
• ISM Services New Orders Index for October 2025 will print at or above 53.0. — 55%
• At its early-November 2025 meeting, the Bank of England will leave Bank Rate unchanged. — 60%
• Apple FY2025 Q4 Services revenue year-over-year growth will be between 10% and 14%, per the company’s earnings release. — 57%

2025-10-29 — 139 items — newsletter

• ISM Manufacturing PMI (headline, SA) for October 2025 will print between 49.0 and 50.2 in ISM’s release due by 2025-11-01. — 58%
• U.S. unemployment rate (U-3, SA) for October 2025 will print between 4.1% and 4.3% in the BLS Employment Situation release due 2025-11-07. — 60%
• At its early-November 2025 meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia will leave the cash rate target unchanged at 4.35%. — 62%
• Nikkei 225 (^N225) will close at or above 52,000.0 on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 55%
• By 2025-11-30, North Korea will conduct at least one additional ballistic missile launch publicly acknowledged by South Korea’s JCS or Japan’s MOD. — 57%
• The S&P 500 Index (^GSPC) will close up at least 2.0% day-over-day on at least one UTC trading day by 2025-11-30. — 50%
• USD/JPY (JPY=X) will trade at or above 153.50 on at least one UTC trading day by 2025-11-30. — 48%
• U.S. Advance Retail Sales excluding motor vehicles and parts dealers (MoM, SA) for October 2025 will print between -0.1% and +0.3% in the Census release due mid-November. — 56%
• S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index (YoY, NSA) for September 2025 will print between 1.5% and 3.0%. — 54%
• ICE BofA MOVE Index will close at or above 115.0 on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 46%

2025-10-28 — 134 items — newsletter

• By 2025-11-05, Congress will pass and the President will sign a continuing resolution funding the federal government, ending the current shutdown. — 64%
• ISM Services PMI (headline, SA) for October 2025 will print between 50.0 and 52.0 in ISM’s release due by 2025-11-05. — 57%
• U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (total, CES) for October 2025 will increase by between 130,000 and 210,000 jobs in the BLS Employment Situation report due 2025-11-07. — 55%
• U.S. PCE Price Index excluding food and energy (core, YoY, SA) for September 2025 will print between 2.7% and 2.9% in the BEA release due by 2025-10-31. — 58%
• Euro area HICP excluding energy and food (core, YoY) for October 2025 (flash) will print between 2.5% and 2.8%, per Eurostat. — 56%
• China Caixin Manufacturing PMI for October 2025 will print between 50.3 and 51.2. — 55%
• ICE U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) will close at or below 104.50 on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 52%
• By 2025-11-30, BIS will publish in the Federal Register a temporary general license, enforcement pause, or deadline extension that delays implementation of at least one China-related AI/semiconductor export control introduced in 2024–2025. — 62%
• By 2025-11-30, Qualcomm will announce at least one publicly named partnership with a U.S. hyperscaler (Amazon, Microsoft, Google, or Meta) for its AI200/AI250 accelerators in an official Qualcomm press release or SEC filing. — 42%
• U.S. initial jobless claims (seasonally adjusted, headline) will print at or above 245,000 in at least one weekly Department of Labor report by 2025-11-30. — 47%
• Meta Platforms Q3 2025 total revenue year-over-year growth will be between 16% and 22%, per the company’s earnings release. — 60%

2025-10-27 — 91 items — newsletter

• By 2025-11-07, the U.S. Treasury, White House, or Commerce will announce a finalized agreement resolving TikTok’s U.S. operations (asset sale or restructuring) in an official press release naming TikTok/ByteDance. — 60%
• At the late-October 2025 FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve will leave the target federal funds rate range unchanged. — 64%
• Nikkei 225 (^N225) will close at or above 50,000.0 on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 63%
• China NBS Industrial Profits (YoY, single-month) for October 2025 will print at or above +15.0% in the official release. — 57%
• Insured losses from Hurricane Melissa will be estimated at or above $5.0 billion by at least one catastrophe modeler by 2025-11-30. — 43%
• By 2025-11-30, DHS/ICE will publish a new or updated Privacy Impact Assessment or System of Records Notice explicitly describing AI-enabled social media monitoring. — 52%
• HSBC will report Q3 2025 profit before tax declining by at least 15% year-over-year in its results announcement. — 61%
• Novartis will announce a definitive agreement to acquire Avidity Biosciences by 2025-11-15. — 68%
• Canada will publish in the Canada Gazette, Part II, an order imposing a surtax under the Customs Tariff on specified U.S. goods by 2025-11-30. — 50%
• ICE Endex Dutch TTF front-month natural gas will settle at or above €45.00/MWh on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 45%

2025-10-26 — 82 items — newsletter

• By 2025-11-30, the Government of Canada will announce and implement retaliatory tariffs (surtaxes) on selected U.S. goods in response to new U.S. tariffs. — 54%
• From 2025-10-24 close to 2025-11-30 close, Berkshire Hathaway Class B (BRK-B) will underperform SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) by at least 2.0 percentage points on an adjusted close basis. — 52%
• ISM Manufacturing Prices Index for October 2025 will print at or above 56.0. — 55%
• The U.S. 2-Year Treasury yield (FRED: DGS2) will close at or below 4.40% on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 53%
• NYMEX RBOB gasoline front-month futures (ticker: RB) will settle at or below $2.10 per gallon on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 51%
• By 2025-11-30, Fluor Corporation (FLR) will announce a review of strategic alternatives for its NuScale stake or a formal plan to monetize/divest a material portion of that stake. — 53%
• By 2025-11-30, OFAC will designate at least one China-based entity under a Russia-related sanctions program for supporting Russia’s defense or industrial base. — 56%
• The U.S. 10-Year TIPS breakeven inflation rate (FRED: T10YIE) will close at or below 2.20% on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 49%
• USD/CAD (Yahoo Finance: CAD=X) will trade at or above 1.3800 on at least one UTC trading day by 2025-11-30. — 48%
• From 2025-10-24 close to 2025-11-30 close, iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) will underperform SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) by at least 1.0 percentage point on an adjusted close basis. — 54%

2025-10-25 — 124 items — newsletter

• CME Henry Hub natural gas front-month futures (ticker: NG) will settle at or below $2.50 per MMBtu on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 53%
• Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) will close at or above 25.00 on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 44%
• HFRI Fund Weighted Composite Index preliminary return for October 2025 will be between +0.4% and +2.0%, per HFR’s release. — 57%
• U.S. Total Vehicle Sales (SAAR, FRED: TOTALSA) for October 2025 will print between 15.0 million and 16.2 million. — 56%
• Atlanta Fed Wage Growth Tracker (12-month moving median) for October 2025 will print between 4.5% and 5.3%. — 58%
• China NBS Manufacturing PMI for October 2025 will print between 50.0 and 50.8. — 55%
• AAA U.S. national average regular gasoline price will print at or below $3.40 per gallon on at least one day by 2025-11-30. — 46%
• USD/MXN (Yahoo Finance: MXN=X) will trade at or above 19.00 on at least one UTC trading day by 2025-11-30. — 47%
• IBM Q3 2025 total revenue year-over-year growth will be between +2% and +6%, per the company’s earnings release. — 56%
• Euro area Industrial Production (MoM, SA) for September 2025 will print between -0.6% and +0.4%, per Eurostat. — 55%
• U.S. initial jobless claims 4-week moving average will reach at or above 230,000 in at least one weekly Department of Labor report by 2025-11-30. — 54%

2025-10-24 — 133 items — newsletter

• The U.S. 30-Year Treasury yield (FRED: DGS30) will close at or below 4.60% on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 53%
• U.S. Housing Starts (SAAR) for October 2025 will print between 1.30 million and 1.42 million in the Census release. — 55%
• By 2025-11-30, BIS will publish a new rule (interim/final) tightening U.S. export controls on China related to AI software/model weights or EDA tools, as posted on federalregister.gov. — 51%
• AMD (AMD) Q3 2025 Data Center segment revenue year-over-year growth will be between 25% and 45%, per the company’s earnings release. — 54%
• COMEX Gold front-month futures will settle at or above $2,550 per troy ounce on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30. — 46%
• USD/JPY (Yahoo Finance: JPY=X) will trade at or below 148.00 on at least one UTC trading day by 2025-11-30. — 45%
• ICE Brent crude oil front-month futures will settle at or above $90.00 per barrel on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30. — 49%
• Euro area HCOB Manufacturing PMI (final) for October 2025 will print between 45.0 and 47.0. — 56%
• U.S. PCE Price Index (headline, MoM, SA) for September 2025 will print between 0.1% and 0.3% in the BEA release due by 2025-10-31. — 58%
• From 2025-10-24 close to 2025-11-30 close, Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) will underperform SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) by at least 1.5 percentage points based on adjusted close percentage change. — 54%

2025-10-23 — 141 items — newsletter

• U.S. CPI Core (YoY, CPI-U all items less food and energy) for October 2025 will print between 3.1% and 3.4%. — 57%
• Euro area GDP (QoQ, SA, flash) for Q3 2025 will print between 0.0% and 0.2%. — 55%
• Amazon Q3 2025 AWS net sales year-over-year growth (reported, not FX-adjusted) will be between 15% and 20%. — 56%
• Meta Platforms Q3 2025 Reality Labs operating loss will be at or above $3.0 billion. — 62%
• The U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield (FRED: DGS10) will close at or below 4.10% on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 54%
• EUR/USD (EURUSD=X) will trade at or below 1.0600 on at least one UTC trading day by 2025-11-30. — 49%
• NYMEX WTI crude oil front-month futures (CL) will settle at or above $86.00 per barrel on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30. — 46%
• The S&P 500 Index (^GSPC) will close down at least 1.8% day-over-day on at least one UTC trading day by 2025-11-30. — 50%
• TSMC October 2025 consolidated revenue (NT$) year-over-year growth will be between +8% and +16%. — 55%
• U.S. JOLTS total job openings (SA level) for September 2025 will print between 7.4 million and 8.1 million. — 56%
• ICE Endex Dutch TTF front-month natural gas will settle at or below €34.00/MWh on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30. — 51%

2025-10-22 — 134 items — newsletter

• Alphabet (GOOGL) Q3 2025 total revenue growth (YoY) will be between 10% and 14%, per the company’s earnings release. — 55%
• ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index for October 2025 will print at or below 50.5. — 55%
• Euro area unemployment rate (Eurostat) for September 2025 will print between 6.4% and 6.7%. — 60%
• U.S. CPI Used Cars and Trucks (MoM, SA) for October 2025 will print between -1.2% and +0.3% in the BLS release. — 57%
• United Kingdom CPI (YoY, headline) for October 2025 will print between 2.9% and 3.5%. — 56%
• ICE BofA MOVE Index will close at or below 95.0 on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 52%
• ICE Endex Dutch TTF front-month natural gas will settle at or below €38.00/MWh on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30. — 49%
• ICE U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) will close at or above 107.00 on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 47%
• U.S. crude oil field production (weekly, EIA) will print at or above 13.40 million barrels per day in at least one Weekly Petroleum Status Report by 2025-11-30. — 55%
• From 2025-10-22 close to 2025-11-30 close, Tesla (TSLA) will underperform Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) by at least 5.0 percentage points based on adjusted close percentage change. — 53%
• By 2025-11-30, OFAC will designate at least one entity for supporting Iranian UAV procurement or production, as evidenced by a Treasury press release or SDN listing explicitly citing UAV-related activity. — 55%

2025-10-21 — 122 items — newsletter

• ISM Manufacturing PMI (headline, SA) for October 2025 will print between 49.0 and 51.5 in ISM’s release due by 2025-11-01. — 56%
• Euro area HCOB Services PMI (final) for October 2025 will print between 49.0 and 51.0. — 54%
• China Industrial Production (YoY) for October 2025 will print between 4.8% and 6.2% in the NBS release. — 55%
• U.S. Unemployment rate (U-3, SA) for October 2025 will print between 4.1% and 4.3% in the BLS release. — 55%
• Nikkei 225 (ticker: ^N225) will close at or above 42,000.0 on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 54%
• USD/CNH (Yahoo Finance: CNH=X) will trade at or above 7.50 on at least one UTC trading day by 2025-11-30. — 53%
• NYMEX WTI crude oil front-month futures (CL) will settle at or below $74.00 per barrel on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30. — 48%
• LME Copper 3-month will settle at or above $9,500 per metric ton on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30. — 50%
• The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) will close at or below 13.00 on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 46%
• Ethereum (ETH-USD) will trade at or above $3,800 on at least one UTC day by 2025-11-30. — 47%
• By 2025-11-30, NASA will publish a solicitation (draft RFP or final) on SAM.gov to reopen competition for an Artemis lunar Human Landing System provider. — 58%
• Lynas Rare Earths (ASX: LYC) will close at or above A$9.50 on at least one ASX trading day by 2025-11-30 (local exchange time). — 52%

2025-10-20 — 89 items — newsletter

• U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (change in total nonfarm employment, SA) for October 2025 will print between +100,000 and +220,000. — 55%
• ISM Services Prices Index for October 2025 will print at or above 56.0. — 55%
• Seasonally adjusted insured unemployment (continuing claims) will print at or above 1.90 million in at least one weekly report by 2025-11-30. — 54%
• Euro area HICP headline (YoY, flash) for October 2025 will print between 2.2% and 2.8%. — 57%
• China imports (USD, YoY) for October 2025 will print between -2% and +6% in the Customs release. — 55%
• U.S. Existing Home Sales (SAAR) for September 2025 will print between 3.8 million and 4.2 million in the NAR release. — 56%
• ICE U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) will close at or below 103.00 on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 51%
• ICE Brent crude oil front-month futures will settle at or below $80.00 per barrel on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30. — 49%
• U.S. working natural gas in storage will reach at or above 3.90 trillion cubic feet in at least one EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report by 2025-11-30. — 54%
• U.S. Retail Sales Control Group (MoM, SA) for October 2025 will print between -0.2% and +0.3% in the Census release. — 55%
• The U.S. 10-Year TIPS breakeven inflation rate (FRED: T10YIE) will close at or above 2.50% on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 51%
• Microsoft (MSFT) Q1 FY2026 Azure and other cloud services revenue growth (YoY, constant currency) will be between 25% and 32%, per the company’s earnings disclosure. — 56%
• Apple (AAPL) fiscal Q4 2025 Services net sales will grow between 12% and 18% year-over-year, per the company’s earnings release. — 57%

2025-10-19 — 83 items — newsletter

• ISM Services PMI (headline, SA) for October 2025 will print between 51.0 and 53.5 in ISM’s release. — 56%
• U.S. CPI Headline (MoM, SA) for October 2025 will print between 0.0% and 0.3% in the BLS release. — 56%
• U.S. JOLTS hires rate for September 2025 will print between 3.4% and 3.7% in the BLS release. — 58%
• Japan Tokyo CPI excluding fresh food (YoY) for October 2025 will print between 2.0% and 2.8%. — 60%
• China exports (USD, YoY) for October 2025 will print between -4% and +4% in the Customs release. — 55%
• AAA U.S. national average diesel price will print at or below $3.90 per gallon on at least one daily reading. — 48%
• ICE BofA MOVE Index will close at or above 115.0 on at least one trading day (UTC). — 50%
• From 2025-10-18 close to 2025-11-30 close, Zions Bancorporation (ZION) will underperform SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) by at least 6.0 percentage points based on adjusted close percentage change. — 55%
• Walmart (WMT) Q3 FY2026 U.S. comparable sales ex-fuel will print between 3.0% and 5.0%, per the company’s earnings release. — 56%
• English Wikipedia (en.wikipedia.org) total pageviews (all-access) for October 2025 will be at least 8% lower than October 2024, per Wikimedia REST API. — 54%
• EUR/JPY (EURJPY=X) will trade at or above 164.00 on at least one UTC trading day. — 47%
• Aggregate EU natural gas storage (AGSI+, EU total) will be at or above 95.0% of capacity on at least one day between 2025-10-20 and 2025-11-30. — 60%

2025-10-18 — 129 items — newsletter

• U.S. Real GDP (SAAR, QoQ) for Q3 2025 will print between 1.8% and 3.0% in the BEA advance estimate. — 58%
• Seasonally adjusted U.S. initial jobless claims (weekly level) will print at or above 240,000 in at least one report. — 52%
• The S&P 500 Index (^GSPC) will close up at least 2.0% day-over-day on at least one UTC trading day. — 45%
• EUR/USD (EURUSD=X) will trade at or above 1.1200 on at least one UTC trading day. — 43%
• Bitcoin (BTC-USD) will trade at or above $75,000 on at least one UTC day. — 47%
• The Brent–WTI front-month settlement spread will reach at or below $3.00 per barrel on at least one trading day. — 48%
• ICE Endex Dutch TTF front-month natural gas will settle at or above €45.00/MWh on at least one trading day. — 46%
• U.S. CPI Owners’ Equivalent Rent (OER, MoM, SA) for October 2025 will be at or below 0.35% in the BLS release. — 52%
• Euro area HICP excluding energy and food (YoY, flash) for October 2025 will print between 2.6% and 3.1%. — 56%
• NVIDIA (NVDA) Q3 FY2026 Data Center segment revenue year-over-year growth will be between 35% and 60%, per the company’s earnings release. — 54%
• By 2025-11-30, OFAC will announce at least one new sanctions designation targeting a Venezuelan state-owned enterprise, ministry, or senior official. — 52%
• The U.S. 5-Year TIPS breakeven inflation rate (FRED: T5YIE) will close at or below 2.10% on at least one trading day (UTC). — 53%

2025-10-17 — 151 items — newsletter

• USD/JPY (Yahoo Finance: JPY=X) will trade at or above 152.50 on at least one UTC trading day by 2025-11-30. — 48%
• The Cboe Volatility Index (ticker: ^VIX) will close at or above 22.00 on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 51%
• From 2025-10-17 close to 2025-11-30 close, SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) will underperform SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) by at least 3.5 percentage points based on adjusted close percentage change. — 56%
• The Drewry World Container Index (Composite) weekly reading published on or before 2025-11-30 will be at least 25% higher than its 2025-09-05 Composite level. — 54%
• U.S. total commercial crude oil inventories (excluding SPR) will decline by at least 8.0 million barrels week-over-week in at least one EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report published by 2025-11-15. — 52%
• ISM Manufacturing Prices Index for October 2025 will print at or above 56.0 in ISM’s release due by 2025-11-01. — 55%
• University of Michigan 5–10 year inflation expectations (final) for October 2025 will print between 2.8% and 3.1%. — 58%
• U.S. Core PCE Price Index (YoY, SA) for September 2025 will print between 2.6% and 2.8% in the BEA release due by 2025-10-31. — 58%
• By 2025-11-30, OFAC will sanction at least two entities for facilitating Russia–North Korea arms transfers, as evidenced by new SDN listings or press releases explicitly citing such activity. — 52%
• NYMEX Henry Hub natural gas front-month futures (NG) will settle at or above $3.60 per MMBtu on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30. — 52%
• The U.S. 2-Year Treasury yield (FRED: DGS2) will close at or below 4.30% on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 54%
• The U.S. Senate will pass a continuing resolution extending federal funding through at least 2025-12-15 by 2025-10-31. — 55%

2025-10-16 — 135 items — newsletter

• U.S. PCE Core (MoM, SA) for September 2025 will print between 0.20% and 0.30% in the BEA release due by 2025-10-31. — 57%
• University of Michigan 1-year inflation expectations (final) for October 2025 will print between 3.0% and 3.6%. — 58%
• The PBOC will keep the 1-year Loan Prime Rate unchanged at 3.35% at the fixing on or before 2025-10-21. — 62%
• Euro area HCOB Manufacturing PMI (final) for October 2025 will print between 47.0 and 49.0. — 56%
• The Drewry World Container Index Shanghai–Los Angeles weekly spot rate published on or before 2025-11-30 will be at least 20% higher than its 2025-09-05 reading. — 55%
• ICE BofA U.S. High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread (FRED: BAMLH0A0HYM2) will close at or above 4.50% on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 52%
• Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey 30-year fixed rate will print at or below 6.50% in at least one weekly release by 2025-11-30. — 53%
• COMEX Gold futures (GC, most-active) will settle at or above $2,650 per troy ounce on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30. — 50%
• USD/JPY (Yahoo Finance: JPY=X) will trade at or below 148.50 on at least one UTC trading day by 2025-11-30. — 49%
• From 2025-10-16 close to 2025-11-30 close, Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE) will outperform SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) by at least 2.5 percentage points based on adjusted close percentage change. — 54%
• China PPI (headline, YoY) for October 2025 will print between -2.5% and -1.0% in the National Bureau of Statistics release by 2025-11-10. — 57%
• The Brent–WTI front-month settlement spread will reach at or above $7.00 per barrel on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30. — 52%

2025-10-15 — 131 items — newsletter

• The U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield (FRED: DGS10) will close at or below 4.10% on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 54%
• U.S. PPI Final Demand (MoM, SA) for October 2025 will print between 0.0% and 0.3% in the BLS release due by 2025-11-15. — 58%
• Walmart (WMT) Q3 FY2026 U.S. eCommerce net sales growth year-over-year will be between 18% and 26%, per the company’s earnings release published by 2025-11-30. — 57%
• By 2025-11-30, China will announce new export licensing restrictions covering at least one rare-earth element, permanent magnet, or other defense-critical mineral category. — 47%
• AAA U.S. national average regular gasoline price will print at or below $3.20 per gallon on at least one daily reading by 2025-11-30. — 50%
• From 2025-10-15 close to 2025-11-30 close, Consumer Staples (XLP) will underperform Consumer Discretionary (XLY) by at least 2.5 percentage points based on adjusted close percentage change. — 54%
• U.S. JOLTS quits rate for September 2025 will print between 2.1% and 2.5% in the BLS release due by 2025-11-06. — 60%
• The U.S. 10Y–2Y Treasury yield spread (FRED: T10Y2Y) will close at or above -0.05 percentage points on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 47%
• ICE Brent crude oil front-month futures will settle at or above $88.00 per barrel on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30. — 52%
• The S&P 500 Index (ticker: ^GSPC) will close down at least 2.0% day-over-day on at least one UTC trading day by 2025-11-30. — 49%

2025-10-14 — 117 items — newsletter

• U.S. JOLTS job openings (level, seasonally adjusted) for September 2025 will print between 7.3 million and 8.3 million in the BLS release due by 2025-11-06. — 57%
• Alphabet (GOOGL) Q3 2025 Google Cloud revenue year-over-year growth will be between 17% and 24%, per the company’s earnings release published by 2025-10-30. — 55%
• Amazon (AMZN) Q3 2025 AWS revenue year-over-year growth will be between 16% and 22%, per the company’s earnings release published by 2025-10-31. — 56%
• Meta Platforms (META) Q3 2025 Reality Labs operating loss will be between $3.0B and $4.5B, per the company’s earnings release by 2025-10-31. — 60%
• Euro area Industrial Production (MoM, SA) for September 2025 will print between -0.8% and +0.4% in Eurostat’s release due by 2025-11-13. — 55%
• At the meeting concluding 2025-11-06, the Bank of England will leave Bank Rate unchanged at 5.25%. — 62%
• The PBOC will set the 1-year MLF rate unchanged at 2.50% at its next fixing on or before 2025-11-15. — 58%
• EIA-reported crude oil stocks at Cushing, OK will decrease by at least 2.5 million barrels week-over-week in at least one Weekly Petroleum Status Report published by 2025-11-15. — 52%
• The Drewry World Container Index Shanghai–Rotterdam weekly spot rate published on or before 2025-11-30 will be at least 20% higher than its 2025-09-05 reading. — 55%
• AAA U.S. national average regular gasoline price will print at or below $3.25 per gallon on at least one daily reading by 2025-11-30. — 53%
• China CPI (headline, YoY) for October 2025 will print between -0.2% and +0.8% in the National Bureau of Statistics release by 2025-11-10. — 57%
• NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for October 2025 will print between 90.0 and 93.0 in the release due by 2025-11-12. — 54%
• ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index for October 2025 will print between 47.0 and 51.0 in ISM’s release due by 2025-11-01. — 55%
• By 2025-11-30, Taiwan’s MOD will report at least one 24-hour period with 70 or more PRC military aircraft detected around Taiwan. — 46%

2025-10-13 — 93 items — newsletter

• At the meeting concluding 2025-11-05, the FOMC will leave the federal funds target range unchanged at 5.25%–5.50%. — 62%
• U.S. CPI Core (MoM, SA) for October 2025 will print between 0.20% and 0.30% in the BLS release due by 2025-11-15. — 56%
• U.S. Retail Sales Control Group (MoM, SA) for September 2025 will print between -0.2% and +0.3% in the Census release due by 2025-10-16. — 55%
• Euro area Composite PMI (final) for October 2025 will print between 49.5 and 51.5 in the HCOB/S&P Global release due by 2025-11-06. — 54%
• U.S. Housing Starts (SAAR) for September 2025 will print between 1.33 million and 1.45 million in the Census/HUD release due by 2025-10-17. — 55%
• China Total Social Financing (flow) for September 2025 will print between CNY 3.0 trillion and CNY 4.6 trillion in the PBOC release by 2025-10-15. — 56%
• Seasonally adjusted U.S. initial jobless claims 4-week moving average will reach at or above 225,000 in at least one weekly Department of Labor report published by 2025-11-15. — 54%
• The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) will close at or below 14.00 on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 53%
• USD/CNH (CNH=X) will trade at or below 7.20 on at least one UTC trading day by 2025-11-30. — 49%
• From 2025-10-13 close to 2025-11-30 close, Financials (XLF) will outperform Technology (XLK) by at least 2.5 percentage points based on adjusted close percentage change. — 54%
• NYMEX WTI crude oil front-month futures (CL) will settle at or below $74.00 per barrel on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30. — 50%
• ICE Endex Dutch TTF front-month natural gas will settle at or below €33/MWh on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30. — 50%

2025-10-12 — 90 items — newsletter

• ISM Manufacturing PMI (headline) for October 2025 will print between 49.0 and 51.0 in ISM’s release due by 2025-11-01. — 55%
• U.S. nonfarm payrolls (change, total) for October 2025 will be between +110,000 and +230,000 in the BLS Employment Situation release by 2025-11-08. — 55%
• U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for October 2025 will print between 4.1% and 4.4% in the BLS release by 2025-11-08. — 54%
• U.S. Advance Retail Sales (MoM, SA) for September 2025 will print between -0.2% and +0.3% in the Census release due by 2025-10-16. — 54%
• S&P Global U.S. Composite PMI (final) for October 2025 will print between 51.0 and 53.5 in the release due by 2025-11-05. — 54%
• Euro area unemployment rate for September 2025 will print between 6.3% and 6.6% in Eurostat’s release due by 2025-10-31. — 56%
• From 2025-10-12 close to 2025-11-30 close, iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) will underperform SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) by at least 2.5 percentage points based on adjusted close percentage change. — 56%
• ICE BofA U.S. Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread (FRED: BAMLCC0A0CM) will close at or above 1.20% on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 53%
• LME Copper 3-month official settlement price will reach at or above $9,800 per metric ton on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30. — 52%
• EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage (Lower 48 total working gas) will print at or above 3,850 Bcf in at least one Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report published by 2025-11-15. — 53%
• Apple (AAPL) fiscal Q4 2025 Services revenue will be between $24.5B and $26.0B, per the company’s earnings release published by 2025-11-10. — 55%

2025-10-11 — 134 items — newsletter

• U.S. CPI (headline, YoY, NSA) for October 2025 will print between 3.1% and 3.6% in the BLS release due by 2025-11-15. — 54%
• China exports (YoY, USD terms) for October 2025 will print between -5% and +3% in the General Administration of Customs release by 2025-11-10. — 55%
• Euro area HICP (headline, YoY, flash) for November 2025 will print between 2.2% and 2.7% in Eurostat’s release due by 2025-11-29. — 54%
• From 2025-10-11 close to 2025-11-30 close, Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) will outperform SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) by at least 1.5 percentage points based on adjusted close percentage change. — 56%
• From 2025-10-11 close to 2025-11-30 close, iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) will underperform SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) by at least 3.0 percentage points based on adjusted close percentage change. — 57%
• The ETH/BTC exchange rate will reach 0.060 or higher on at least one UTC day by 2025-11-30. — 52%
• The U.S. 30-Year Treasury yield (FRED: DGS30) will close at or above 4.80% on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 53%
• EIA-reported crude oil stocks at Cushing, OK will reach at or above 35.0 million barrels in at least one Weekly Petroleum Status Report published by 2025-11-15. — 54%
• By 2025-11-30, the UK CMA will publish a formal consultation on proposed conduct requirements for Google Search under its Special Market Status designation. — 55%
• By 2025-11-30, China will file a request for WTO consultations challenging new U.S. tariff or export-control measures announced in October 2025. — 51%

2025-10-10 — 138 items — newsletter

• By 2025-11-30, the U.S. Commerce Department (BIS) will add at least three China-based entities to the Entity List citing semiconductor export-control evasion or illicit acquisition of restricted AI chips. — 58%
• USD/CNH (Yahoo Finance: CNH=X) will trade at or above 7.40 on at least one UTC trading day by 2025-11-30. — 55%
• EUR/USD (Yahoo Finance: EURUSD=X) will trade at or below 1.0300 on at least one UTC trading day by 2025-11-30. — 52%
• NYMEX WTI crude oil front-month futures (CL) will settle at or above $92.00 per barrel on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30. — 52%
• ICE Endex Dutch TTF front-month natural gas will settle at or above €45/MWh on at least one trading day by 2025-11-15. — 55%
• U.S. distillate fuel oil inventories will decline by at least 4.0 million barrels week-over-week in at least one EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report published by 2025-10-31. — 53%
• ISM Services PMI (headline) for October 2025 will print between 50.0 and 53.0 in ISM’s release due by 2025-11-05. — 56%
• University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (final) for October 2025 will print between 66.0 and 70.0 in the release due 2025-10-25. — 55%
• OpenAI’s Sora app (U.S. iOS) will rank in the Top 5 of the App Store Top Free chart on at least 5 distinct UTC days between 2025-10-10 and 2025-10-31. — 57%
• By 2025-11-30, Paramount Global and Warner Bros. Discovery will not announce a signed definitive merger or acquisition agreement, as evidenced by no joint press release and no definitive agreement filing on SEC EDGAR. — 58%

2025-10-09 — 137 items — newsletter

• From 2025-10-09 close to 2025-11-30 close, Invesco QQQ (QQQ) will underperform SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA) by at least 3.0 percentage points based on percentage change in adjusted close prices. — 55%
• The U.S. 10-Year Treasury Inflation-Indexed Security yield (FRED: DFII10) will close at or above 2.10% on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 53%
• Seasonally adjusted U.S. initial jobless claims will print at or above 235,000 in at least one weekly Department of Labor Unemployment Insurance report published by 2025-11-15. — 54%
• Henry Hub Natural Gas front-month futures (NYMEX: NG) will settle at or below $2.60 per MMBtu on at least one trading day by 2025-11-15. — 52%
• The U.S. Dollar Index (ICE: DXY) will close at or above 108.00 on at least one UTC day by 2025-11-30. — 52%
• Microsoft (MSFT) will report Azure (including Azure AI) constant-currency revenue growth between 23% and 28% YoY for Q1 FY2026 in its earnings release by 2025-10-31. — 56%
• By 2025-11-30, Taiwan’s MOD will report at least one 24-hour period with 60 or more PRC military aircraft detected around Taiwan. — 58%
• The 2025 Nobel Peace Prize laureate(s) announced on 2025-10-10 will include at least one whose primary work concerns climate change mitigation, adaptation, or environmental protection. — 45%
• The U.S. 2-Year Treasury yield (FRED: DGS2) will close at or above 4.80% on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 52%
• U.S. motor gasoline product supplied (EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report) will print at or below 8.4 million barrels per day in at least one weekly report published by 2025-10-31. — 55%
• Euro area core HICP (YoY, flash) for October 2025 will print between 2.4% and 2.8% in Eurostat’s release due by 2025-10-31. — 55%
• AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) will close at or above $12.00 on at least one trading day by 2025-11-15 (UTC). — 54%
• By 2025-11-30, at least two U.S.-listed companies will publicly announce intent to pursue a primary or dual listing on the Texas Stock Exchange (TXSE) via press release or SEC filing. — 47%

2025-10-08 — 140 items — newsletter

• COMEX Gold (GC) front-month futures will settle at or below $3,500 per troy ounce on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30. — 58%
• The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) will close at or above 24.00 on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 54%
• USD/JPY (Yahoo Finance: JPY=X) will trade at or below 150.00 on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 51%
• U.S. CPI (headline, YoY, NSA) for September 2025 will print between 3.0% and 3.3% in the BLS release on 2025-10-10. — 57%
• The ICE BofA MOVE Index (FRED: MOVE) will close at or above 110.0 on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 53%
• By 2025-11-30, OFAC will add at least two DPRK-related entries to the SDN List for activity tied to cryptocurrency theft, mixing, exchange, or laundering. — 58%
• Microsoft (MSFT) Q1 FY2026 Intelligent Cloud segment revenue will be between $30.0B and $31.5B, per the company’s earnings release published by 2025-10-31. — 56%
• NVIDIA (NVDA) Q3 FY2026 non-GAAP gross margin will be between 74.0% and 77.0%, per the company’s earnings release published by 2025-11-30. — 57%
• From 2025-10-08 close to 2025-11-30 close, iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) will outperform SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) by at least 2.0 percentage points based on adjusted close percentage change. — 53%
• ICE Brent crude oil front-month futures will settle at or below $80.00 per barrel on at least one trading day by 2025-11-15. — 51%

2025-10-07 — 143 items — newsletter

• U.S. 2-Year Treasury yield (FRED: DGS2) will close at or below 4.10% on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 52%
• ICE BofA U.S. High Yield OAS (FRED: BAMLH0A0HYM2) will close at or above 4.00% on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 54%
• Henry Hub Natural Gas front-month futures (NYMEX: NG) will settle at or above $3.40 per MMBtu on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30. — 55%
• Ethereum (ETH-USD) will close at or above $4,000 on at least one UTC day by 2025-11-30. — 49%
• U.S. Core PCE price index (MoM, SA) for September 2025 will print between 0.20% and 0.30% in the BEA release on 2025-10-31. — 58%
• Euro area HICP (headline, YoY, flash) for October 2025 will print between 2.2% and 2.7% in Eurostat’s release due by 2025-10-31. — 55%
• EIA-reported U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (ex-SPR) will increase by at least +6.0 million barrels in a single week in at least one Weekly Petroleum Status Report published by 2025-10-31. — 53%
• By 2025-11-30, Google will announce a reduction of the standard U.S. Google Play in-app purchase service fee to 20% or lower. — 45%
• The ChatGPT iOS app (U.S.) will rank in the Top 5 of the App Store Top Free Apps on at least 7 distinct days between 2025-10-07 and 2025-10-31 (UTC). — 57%
• By 2025-10-31, mediators will announce a jointly endorsed ceasefire framework between Israel and Hamas emerging from Cairo talks, acknowledged by both parties and Egypt. — 46%
• Freddie Mac PMMS 30-year fixed-rate mortgage will print at or below 6.40% in at least one weekly release by 2025-11-30. — 52%
• The Drewry World Container Index Shanghai–New York weekly spot rate published on or before 2025-11-30 will be at least 25% higher than its 2025-09-05 reading. — 54%

2025-10-06 — 82 items — newsletter

• Bitcoin (BTC-USD) will close at or above $130,000 on at least one UTC day by 2025-10-31. — 55%
• COMEX Gold (GC) front-month futures will settle at or above $2,800 per troy ounce on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30. — 52%
• ICE Brent crude oil front-month futures will settle at or above $94.00 per barrel on at least one trading day by 2025-10-31. — 54%
• USD/JPY (Yahoo Finance: JPY=X) will trade at or above 165.00 on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 53%
• NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for September 2025 will print between 89.0 and 92.0 in the release due 2025-10-08. — 62%
• University of Michigan 5–10 year inflation expectations (final) for October 2025 will print between 2.8% and 3.0% in the release due 2025-10-25. — 56%
• China CPI (headline, YoY) for September 2025 will print between 0.4% and 0.9% in the NBS release by 2025-10-14. — 55%
• The U.S. 10Y–2Y Treasury yield spread (FRED: DGS10 minus DGS2) will close at or above 0.00 percentage points on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 50%
• From 2025-10-06 close to 2025-11-30 close, Nikkei 225 (^N225) will outperform KOSPI (^KS11) by at least 3.0 percentage points based on percentage change in adjusted close prices. — 54%
• U.S. field production of crude oil (monthly, EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly) for September 2025 will be at or above 13.5 million barrels per day in the report published by 2025-11-30. — 56%
• The U.S. AAA national average price for regular gasoline will print at or below $3.30 per gallon on at least one day by 2025-11-15. — 52%
• The ICE BofA MOVE Index (FRED: MOVE) will close at or below 90.0 on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 52%

2025-10-05 — 87 items — newsletter

• U.S. CPI (headline, MoM, seasonally adjusted) for September 2025 will print between 0.1% and 0.3% in the BLS release on 2025-10-10. — 57%
• U.S. core CPI (all items less food and energy, MoM, SA) for September 2025 will print between 0.2% and 0.3% in the BLS release on 2025-10-10. — 57%
• Seasonally adjusted U.S. continuing jobless claims will print at or above 1.90 million in at least one weekly DOL Unemployment Insurance report published by 2025-11-15. — 55%
• The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) will close at or below 12.00 on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 50%
• The U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield (FRED: DGS10) will close at or above 4.60% on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 54%
• COMEX Gold (GC) front-month futures will settle at or above $2,700 per troy ounce on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30. — 52%
• USD/JPY (Yahoo Finance: JPY=X) will trade at or above 163.00 on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 53%
• U.S. refiner operable utilization rate will print at or below 87.0% in at least one EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report published by 2025-10-31. — 59%
• Apple (AAPL) fiscal Q4 2025 total net sales will be between $85.0B and $91.0B, per the company’s earnings release published by 2025-11-10. — 55%
• NVIDIA (NVDA) Q3 FY2026 Data Center segment revenue will be between $27.0B and $30.0B, per the company’s earnings release or Form 10-Q published by 2025-11-30. — 54%
• China exports (YoY, USD terms) for September 2025 will print between -2% and +4% in the General Administration of Customs release by 2025-10-13. — 56%
• University of Michigan 1-year inflation expectations (final) for October 2025 will print between 3.0% and 3.5% in the release due 2025-10-25. — 56%

2025-10-04 — 131 items — newsletter

• Bitcoin (BTC-USD) will close at or above $80,000 on at least one UTC day by 2025-10-31. — 48%
• The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) will close at or above 20.00 on at least one trading day by 2025-10-31 (UTC). — 56%
• AAA California average regular gasoline price will print at or above $5.80 per gallon on at least one day by 2025-10-20. — 55%
• By 2025-10-31, OFAC will announce an Iran-related sanctions action adding at least 10 new entries to the SDN List. — 54%
• From 2025-10-03 close to 2025-10-31 close, Invesco QQQ (QQQ) will outperform SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) by at least 2.0 percentage points based on adjusted close percentage change. — 54%
• ISM Manufacturing PMI (headline) for October 2025 will print between 48.0 and 50.5 in ISM’s release due by 2025-11-04. — 56%
• The U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield (FRED: DGS10) will close at or below 3.95% on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 52%
• Microsoft (MSFT) Q1 FY2026 total revenue will be between $60.0B and $63.5B, per the company’s earnings release published by 2025-10-31. — 55%
• NYMEX RBOB gasoline front-month futures (RB) will settle at or above $2.60 per gallon on at least one trading day by 2025-10-31. — 53%
• From 2025-10-03 close to 2025-11-30 close, AMD (AMD) will outperform NVIDIA (NVDA) by at least 5.0 percentage points based on percentage change in adjusted close prices. — 51%
• U.S. Retail Sales ‘control group’ (advance, MoM, SA) for October 2025 will print between -0.3% and +0.2% in the Census release due 2025-11-15. — 55%

2025-10-03 — 137 items — newsletter

• If a U.S. federal government shutdown began on 2025-10-01, it will end by 2025-10-14 (inclusive) via enactment of a continuing resolution or full-year appropriations. — 60%
• By 2025-10-31, at least three U.S. state attorneys general will file lawsuits seeking to block distribution or use of newly approved generic mifepristone. — 58%
• By 2025-10-10, Mexico’s Secretariat of Foreign Affairs (SRE) will issue a formal public statement or diplomatic note rejecting U.S. ‘war on cartels’ framing or potential cross-border military actions. — 60%
• From 2025-10-02 close to 2025-10-31 close, iShares Global Clean Energy ETF (ICLN) will underperform SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) by at least 4.0 percentage points based on percentage change in adjusted close prices. — 54%
• Intel (INTC) will close at or above $50.00 on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 55%
• Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) will underperform the PHLX Semiconductor Index (^SOX) by at least 3.0 percentage points from 2025-10-02 close to 2025-11-30 close. — 53%
• MP Materials (MP) will close at or above $20.00 on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 52%
• NYMEX RBOB gasoline front-month futures (RB) will settle at or below $2.15 per gallon on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30. — 54%
• USD/MXN (Yahoo Finance: MXN=X) will trade at or above 19.20 on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 52%

2025-10-02 — 141 items — newsletter

• U.S. unemployment rate (U-3, seasonally adjusted) for September 2025 will print between 4.0% and 4.2% in the BLS Employment Situation on 2025-10-03. — 58%
• U.S. labor force participation rate (seasonally adjusted) for September 2025 will print between 62.6% and 62.9% in the BLS Employment Situation on 2025-10-03. — 57%
• U.S. Average Weekly Hours of All Employees (Total Private, seasonally adjusted) for September 2025 will print between 34.3 and 34.4 hours in the BLS Employment Situation on 2025-10-03. — 56%
• U.S. U-6 underemployment rate (seasonally adjusted) for September 2025 will print between 7.6% and 8.2% in the BLS Employment Situation on 2025-10-03. — 57%
• ISM Services Prices Index for September 2025 will print between 56.0 and 61.0 in ISM’s report released on 2025-10-03. — 55%
• NYMEX WTI crude oil front-month futures (CL) will settle at or above $90.00 per barrel on at least one trading day by 2025-10-31. — 56%
• U.S. On-Highway Diesel Fuel Price (EIA, U.S. average) will print at or below $3.90 per gallon in at least one weekly update published by 2025-11-15. — 48%
• U.S. field production of crude oil (monthly, EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly) for August 2025 will be at or above 13.4 million barrels per day in the report published by 2025-10-31. — 60%
• By 2025-11-30, Intel and AMD will announce that AMD will use Intel Foundry Services to manufacture at least one product line, via a joint press release or concurrent statements on both companies’ investor relations sites. — 44%
• The U.S. 10-Year Treasury Inflation-Indexed Security yield (FRED: DFII10) will close at or below 1.80% on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 54%

2025-10-01 — 137 items — newsletter

• At its November 2025 FOMC meeting (statement dated 2025-11-05), the Federal Reserve will leave the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged from its prior level. — 62%
• ISM Services PMI (headline) for September 2025 will print between 51.0 and 53.5 in ISM’s release on 2025-10-03. — 56%
• U.S. Producer Price Index (Final Demand, MoM, SA) for September 2025 will print between 0.1% and 0.4% in the BLS release on 2025-10-09. — 57%
• U.S. Core PCE price index (YoY, SA) for September 2025 will print between 2.6% and 2.9% in the BEA release on 2025-10-31. — 57%
• EIA-reported 4-week average U.S. product supplied of finished motor gasoline will print at or below 8.60 million barrels per day in at least one Weekly Petroleum Status Report released by 2025-10-31. — 55%
• The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) will close at or below 13.00 on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 52%
• OpenAI’s Sora app will rank in the top 3 of the U.S. iOS App Store Top Free Apps at least once by 2025-11-15. — 58%
• NVIDIA (NVDA) market capitalization will reach or exceed $5.0 trillion on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30. — 55%
• By 2025-10-31, the U.S. Treasury’s OFAC will announce a Russia-related sanctions action that adds at least 20 new entries to the SDN List. — 60%
• Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) 30-year fixed-rate mortgage will print at or above 6.75% in at least one weekly release by 2025-10-31. — 53%
• Seasonally adjusted U.S. initial jobless claims will print at or above 230,000 in at least one weekly DOL report released by 2025-10-31. — 56%

2025-09-30 — 141 items — newsletter

• ISM Manufacturing PMI (headline) for September 2025 will print between 47.5 and 49.5 in the ISM release on 2025-10-01. — 56%
• ADP National Employment Report change for September 2025 will be between 120,000 and 190,000 in the release on 2025-10-01. — 55%
• U.S. Average Hourly Earnings (total private, seasonally adjusted) month-over-month for September 2025 will print between 0.20% and 0.40% in the BLS Employment Situation on 2025-10-03. — 57%
• Euro area HICP (headline, YoY, flash) for September 2025 will print between 2.3% and 2.7% in Eurostat’s release on 2025-10-02. — 56%
• The U.S. AAA national average price for regular gasoline will print at or below $3.40 per gallon on at least one day by 2025-10-31. — 54%
• By 2025-10-15, OPEC+ will issue an official statement maintaining current production targets with no net increase for November–December 2025. — 60%
• NVIDIA (NVDA) Q3 FY2026 revenue will be between $32.0B and $35.0B, per the company’s earnings release or Form 10-Q published by 2025-11-30. — 55%
• TSMC (2330.TW) consolidated revenue year-over-year change for September 2025 will be between +20% and +30% in the company’s monthly revenue report published by 2025-10-10. — 56%
• The Drewry World Container Index Shanghai–New York weekly spot rate published on or before 2025-10-31 will be at least 15% higher than its 2025-09-05 reading. — 56%
• EUR/JPY (Yahoo Finance: EURJPY=X) will trade at or above 165.00 on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 53%

2025-09-29 — 103 items — newsletter

• No U.S. federal government shutdown will begin at 00:01 EDT on 2025-10-01 because a continuing resolution or full-year appropriations will be enacted into law by that time. — 58%
• Tesla (TSLA) Q3 2025 global deliveries will be between 415,000 and 460,000 vehicles in the company’s press release published by 2025-10-04. — 55%
• UK CPI (headline, YoY) for September 2025 will print between 2.8% and 3.3% in the ONS release due 2025-10-16. — 56%
• U.S. CPI shelter index (month-over-month, seasonally adjusted) for September 2025 will print between 0.30% and 0.45% in the BLS CPI release on 2025-10-10. — 57%
• U.S. working natural gas in storage will reach at or above 3.80 trillion cubic feet in at least one EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report published by 2025-11-15. — 60%
• LME 3-month Copper official settlement price will reach at or above $9,500 per metric ton on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30. — 53%
• Bitcoin (BTC-USD) will close at or above $75,000 on at least one UTC day by 2025-11-30. — 49%
• The U.S. 30Y–5Y Treasury yield spread (FRED: DGS30 minus DGS5) will close at or above 0.60 percentage points on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 55%
• The Drewry World Container Index Shanghai–Los Angeles weekly spot rate published on or before 2025-10-31 will be at least 15% higher than its 2025-09-05 reading. — 57%
• Alphabet (GOOGL) Q3 2025 revenue will be between $83.0B and $87.0B, per the company’s earnings release published by 2025-10-31. — 55%

2025-09-28 — 88 items — newsletter

• ICE Brent crude oil front-month futures will settle at or above $92.00 per barrel on at least one trading day by 2025-10-31. — 55%
• EUR/USD will trade at or below 1.0400 on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 52%
• U.S. nonfarm payrolls (change, seasonally adjusted) for September 2025 will be between 120,000 and 220,000 in the BLS Employment Situation on 2025-10-03. — 55%
• U.S. Retail Sales 'control group' (advance) month-over-month for September 2025 will print between -0.2% and +0.4% in the Census release on 2025-10-16. — 56%
• University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (final) for October 2025 will print between 65.0 and 74.0 in the release due 2025-10-25. — 56%
• U.S. 2-Year Treasury yield (FRED: DGS2) will close at or above 4.90% on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 54%
• From 2025-09-26 close to 2025-10-31 close, the Russell 2000 Index (^RUT) will underperform the S&P 500 Index (^GSPC) by at least 3.0 percentage points based on percentage change in adjusted close prices. — 56%
• U.S. core CPI (all items less food and energy, year-over-year) for September 2025 will be between 3.1% and 3.3% in the BLS release on 2025-10-10. — 57%
• EIA-reported 4-week average U.S. crude oil exports will reach at or above 4.50 million barrels per day in at least one Weekly Petroleum Status Report published by 2025-11-15. — 54%
• NYMEX Henry Hub natural gas front-month futures will settle at or above $3.75 per MMBtu on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30. — 55%
• Euro area HCOB Flash Composite PMI for October 2025 will print at or below 50.2 in the release due 2025-10-24. — 55%

2025-09-27 — 136 items — newsletter

• If a U.S. federal government shutdown begins on 2025-10-01, it will end by 2025-10-06 (inclusive) via enactment of a continuing resolution or full-year appropriations. — 59%
• ISM Manufacturing Prices Index for October 2025 will print between 50.0 and 55.0 in the report due by 2025-11-04. — 56%
• U.S. New Home Sales (SAAR) for September 2025 will print between 650,000 and 740,000 in the Census release due 2025-10-29. — 55%
• U.S. JOLTS quits rate for August 2025 will print between 2.1% and 2.3% in the BLS release on 2025-10-01. — 58%
• Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) will close at or above 25.00 on at least one trading day by 2025-10-31 (UTC). — 53%
• Bitcoin (BTC-USD) will close at or below $53,000 on at least one UTC day by 2025-11-30. — 49%
• The Brent–WTI spot spread (FRED: DCOILBRENTEU minus DCOILWTICO) will reach at or above $7.00 per barrel on at least one daily observation by 2025-11-30. — 54%
• Henry Hub natural gas spot price (FRED: DHHNGSP) will print at or below $2.30 per MMBtu on at least one daily observation by 2025-11-30. — 55%
• Caixin China Services PMI for October 2025 will print between 51.0 and 53.5 in the release due by 2025-11-05. — 56%
• Euro area core HICP (YoY, flash) for October 2025 will print between 2.3% and 2.7% in Eurostat’s 2025-10-31 release. — 57%
• Boeing (BA) will report at least 45 commercial aircraft deliveries for October 2025 in its monthly update published by 2025-11-15. — 60%
• Electronic Arts (EA) will announce a definitive agreement to be acquired or taken private at an equity value of at least $50 billion by 2025-10-31. — 47%
• U.S. 5-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate (FRED: T5YIE) will reach at or above 2.25% on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30. — 55%

2025-09-26 — 140 items — newsletter

• U.S. PCE price index (headline, seasonally adjusted) month-over-month for September 2025 will be between 0.15% and 0.30% in the BEA release on 2025-10-31. — 56%
• ICE BofA US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread (FRED: BAMLC0A0CM) will reach at or above 1.50 percentage points on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 52%
• The ICE U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) will close at or above 109.00 on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 51%
• Amazon (AMZN) will recognize a GAAP charge of at least $2.0B related to the FTC Prime settlement in its Q3 2025 earnings release or Form 10-Q published by 2025-10-31. — 62%
• EIA Weekly U.S. Field Production of Crude Oil will print at or above 13.6 million barrels per day for at least one week ending by 2025-11-29, as published by 2025-11-30. — 54%
• The U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield (FRED: DGS10) will close at or above 4.70% on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 53%
• Euro area unemployment rate (seasonally adjusted) for September 2025 will print between 6.2% and 6.6% in Eurostat’s release due by 2025-10-31. — 61%
• From 2025-09-26 close to 2025-10-31 close, Tesla (TSLA) will underperform the Nasdaq-100 Index (^NDX) by at least 5.0 percentage points based on percentage change in adjusted close prices. — 55%
• Copernicus ERA5 global surface air temperature for September 2025 will rank within the top 2 warmest Septembers on record in the C3S monthly bulletin released by 2025-10-07. — 60%
• UK Retail Sales volume (seasonally adjusted, including fuel) month-over-month for September 2025 will print between -0.6% and +0.4% in the ONS release on 2025-10-18. — 55%
• China Caixin Manufacturing PMI for October 2025 will print between 50.0 and 51.5 in the release by 2025-11-01. — 55%
• At its early-November 2025 meeting, the Bank of England will leave Bank Rate unchanged. — 58%

2025-09-25 — 135 items — newsletter

• U.S. CPI (all items, seasonally adjusted) month-over-month for September 2025 will be between 0.15% and 0.30% in the BLS CPI release on 2025-10-10. — 57%
• U.S. Average Hourly Earnings (total private) year-over-year for September 2025 will be between 3.6% and 4.0% in the BLS Employment Situation on 2025-10-03. — 56%
• At its 2025-10-23 meeting, the ECB will leave the deposit facility rate unchanged. — 60%
• The Nasdaq-100 Index (^NDX) will close at or above 20,000 on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 55%
• U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding SPR) will reach at or above 440.0 million barrels in at least one EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report published by 2025-11-15. — 54%
• The MBA Weekly Survey 30-year fixed mortgage rate (conforming) will print at or above 6.80% in at least one report released by 2025-10-31. — 52%
• By 2025-10-31, the EU Council will announce adoption of a new Russia-related sanctions package via an official press release or legal act on consilium.europa.eu or EUR-Lex. — 58%
• Meta Platforms (META) Q3 2025 revenue will be between $39.0B and $42.0B, per the company’s earnings release published by 2025-10-31. — 55%
• The Drewry World Container Index Shanghai–Rotterdam weekly spot rate published on or before 2025-10-31 will be at least 20% higher than its 2025-09-05 reading. — 56%
• The U.S. Initial Jobless Claims 4-week moving average (seasonally adjusted) will reach at or above 230,000 in at least one weekly DOL report released by 2025-10-31. — 57%
• USD/JPY (Yahoo Finance: JPY=X) will trade at or above 155.00 on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 53%
• UK monthly GDP (ONS) for August 2025 will print between -0.2% and +0.3% month-over-month in the release due 2025-10-11. — 56%

2025-09-24 — 134 items — newsletter

• U.S. JOLTS job openings (seasonally adjusted, total nonfarm) for August 2025 will be between 7.5 million and 7.8 million in the BLS release on 2025-10-01. — 55%
• U.S. unemployment rate (U-3, seasonally adjusted) for September 2025 will be between 4.1% and 4.3% in the BLS Employment Situation released 2025-10-03. — 58%
• The U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield (FRED: DGS10) will close at or below 3.95% on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 54%
• The ICE U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) will close at or above 107.00 on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 52%
• From 2025-09-24 close to 2025-10-31 close, iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) will outperform the S&P 500 Index (^GSPC) by at least 2.5 percentage points based on percentage change in adjusted close prices. — 58%
• U.S. ending stocks of distillate fuel oil will reach at or above 125.0 million barrels in at least one EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report released by 2025-11-15. — 54%
• Copernicus ERA5 global surface air temperature for October 2025 will rank within the top 3 warmest Octobers on record in the C3S monthly bulletin released by 2025-11-10. — 59%
• By 2025-11-30, OpenAI or its named infrastructure partners will publicly announce at least one additional U.S. site for the 'Stargate' AI data center program beyond Texas, via an official blog post, press release, or regulatory filing naming the location. — 57%
• By 2025-10-31, the U.K. government will announce at least one new sanctions designation under its Russia-related sanctions regime, via an official GOV.UK press release or OFSI consolidated list update. — 60%
• NYMEX WTI crude oil front-month futures will settle at or below $72.00 per barrel on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30. — 51%

2025-09-23 — 135 items — newsletter

• At its early-November 2025 meeting, the FOMC will lower the federal funds target range by at least 25 basis points. — 58%
• From 2025-09-23 close to 2025-10-31 close, Apple (AAPL) will outperform the S&P 500 Index (^GSPC) by at least 3.0 percentage points based on percentage change in adjusted close prices. — 55%
• The LBMA Gold Price PM will fix at or above $3,800 per troy ounce on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30. — 47%
• By 2025-10-31, the European Commission will open a formal DMA non-compliance proceeding or issue a Statement of Objections against at least one designated gatekeeper. — 57%
• By 2025-10-31, Ørsted will publicly announce the resumption of construction or offshore installation activities for the Revolution Wind project. — 61%
• By 2025-10-31, at least three additional UN member states will formally recognize the State of Palestine after 2025-09-22. — 54%
• By 2025-11-30, India will approve at least two new semiconductor fab or advanced packaging projects under the India Semiconductor Mission with combined central incentives of $6B or more. — 56%
• The EIA 4-week average 'product supplied of finished motor gasoline' will fall to at or below 8.50 million barrels per day in at least one weekly report released by 2025-11-15. — 58%
• ISM Services PMI for October 2025 will print between 50.0 and 52.5 in the release due by 2025-11-05. — 55%
• The MBA Weekly Survey 30-year fixed mortgage rate (conforming) will print at or below 6.25% in at least one report released by 2025-11-30. — 53%
• The ICE U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) will close at or below 101.00 on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 54%
• Seasonally adjusted U.S. insured unemployment (continuing claims) will reach at or above 1.90 million in at least one weekly report released by 2025-10-31. — 56%

2025-09-22 — 93 items — newsletter

• U.S. real GDP growth (advance estimate, SAAR) for Q3 2025 will be between 2.0% and 3.0% in the BEA release on 2025-10-30. — 56%
• Euro area flash HICP headline inflation (YoY) for October 2025 will be between 2.2% and 2.6% in Eurostat’s 2025-10-31 release. — 57%
• China NBS Manufacturing PMI for October 2025 will print between 49.6 and 50.6 in the release on 2025-10-31. — 56%
• Tokyo CPI excluding fresh food (core) year-over-year for October 2025 will be between 2.1% and 2.5% in the release by 2025-11-01 (JST). — 55%
• U.S. core PCE price index month-over-month for September 2025 will be between 0.16% and 0.28% in the BEA release on 2025-10-31. — 57%
• For the week ending 2025-10-11, the EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report will show a U.S. working gas change between +65 and +95 Bcf in the report released by 2025-10-17. — 55%
• ICE Arabica Coffee (KC) front-month futures will settle at or above 260.0 cents per pound on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30. — 53%
• Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) will close at or below 12.00 on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30. — 44%
• USD/CNH (Yahoo Finance: USDCNH=X) will close at or below 7.35 on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 41%
• By 2025-10-31, OFAC will designate at least five vessels or entities tied to Russia’s maritime 'shadow fleet' under its Russia-related program via public press release or SDN List update. — 58%
• ISM Manufacturing PMI for October 2025 will print between 48.0 and 50.5 in the release by 2025-11-04. — 56%
• LME 3-month Aluminum official settlement price will reach at or above $2,550 per metric ton on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30. — 52%
• By 2025-11-15, the European Commission will publish its Financial Data Access (FIDA) framework proposal explicitly excluding DMA-designated 'gatekeeper' firms from accessing consumer financial data. — 55%
• CME/NYMEX VIX-related extremes aside, USD note: This line intentionally left blank to avoid duplication. — 0%

2025-09-21 — 93 items — newsletter

• U.S. PCE price index excluding food and energy (core) year-over-year for September 2025 will be between 2.6% and 2.9%, as reported by BEA on 2025-10-31. — 57%
• U.S. CPI shelter index (BLS series CUSR0000SAH1) month-over-month for September 2025 will be between 0.35% and 0.45% in the CPI release on 2025-10-10. — 56%
• The U.S. 10Y–3M Treasury yield spread (FRED: T10Y3M) will be at or above -0.90 percentage points on at least one trading day by 2025-10-31. — 58%
• Euro area unemployment rate for August 2025 will print between 6.2% and 6.6% in Eurostat’s release on 2025-09-30. — 61%
• UK CPI (headline) year-over-year for September 2025 will be between 2.3% and 3.1% in the ONS release due 2025-10-16. — 56%
• By 2025-10-31, OFAC will announce at least one sanctions designation under its China- or Hong Kong-related programs via public press release or sanctions list update. — 57%
• ICE Endex Dutch TTF front-month natural gas futures will settle at or above €40.00 per MWh on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30. — 54%
• LME 3-month Copper official settlement price will reach at or above $9,800 per metric ton on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30. — 55%
• For the week ending 2025-10-04, the EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report will show a U.S. working gas change between +70 and +100 Bcf, in the report released by 2025-10-10. — 55%
• USD/MXN (Yahoo Finance: MXN=X) will close at or above 18.50 on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 56%
• By 2025-10-31, the Federal Register will publish at least one DHS/USCIS proposed, interim final, or final rule—or fee notice—addressing H-1B petition fees. — 53%
• By 2025-10-31, the U.S. Commerce Department’s BIS will add at least five entities with PRC addresses to the Entity List, as published in the Federal Register. — 58%

2025-09-20 — 135 items — newsletter

• The U.S. federal government will enter a lapse in appropriations (shutdown) beginning 2025-10-01 due to no enacted continuing resolution or full-year appropriations. — 57%
• By 2025-10-31, the SEC will publish a Notice of Proposed Rulemaking to modify quarterly earnings/reporting cadence (e.g., changes to Form 10-Q or issuer earnings release expectations). — 54%
• The U.S. AAA national average price for regular gasoline will be at or below $3.45 per gallon on at least one day by 2025-11-15. — 57%
• S&P 500 Index (^GSPC) will close at or below 5,200 on at least one trading day by 2025-10-31 (UTC). — 55%
• Ethereum (ETH-USD) will trade at or above $3,900 on at least one day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 54%
• University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (final) for September 2025 will print between 66.0 and 70.0 in the release by 2025-09-27. — 56%
• U.S. change in total nonfarm payrolls for September 2025 will be between +110,000 and +230,000, per BLS Employment Situation on 2025-10-03. — 56%
• U.S. PPI Final Demand year-over-year for September 2025 will be between 2.0% and 2.7%, as reported by BLS on 2025-10-09. — 55%
• USD/CNH (Yahoo Finance: USDCNH=X) will close at or above 7.55 on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 57%
• ICE Brent front-month crude futures will settle at or above $97.00 per barrel on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30. — 55%
• By 2025-11-30, xAI will announce or file that it has raised at least $10 billion in new equity funding at a post-money valuation of at least $180 billion. — 52%

2025-09-19 — 137 items — newsletter

• From 2025-09-19 close to 2025-10-31 close, Intel (INTC) will outperform iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) by at least 3.0 percentage points based on percentage change in adjusted close prices. — 57%
• By 2025-10-31, Netskope (NTSK) will close at or above its IPO price on at least 10 trading days since listing (counting from 2025-09-18 to 2025-10-31, Nasdaq trading days). — 55%
• By 2025-10-31, Google or PayPal will announce a live U.S. retailer pilot enabling AI agent–guided shopping with checkout via PayPal/Braintree in Chrome, Search, or Shopping, via an official blog post or press release naming the retailer. — 56%
• By 2025-10-31, the U.S. 10Y–2Y Treasury yield spread (FRED: DGS10 minus DGS2) will be at or above -0.10 percentage points on at least one trading day. — 57%
• The Drewry World Container Index Shanghai–New York weekly spot rate published on or before 2025-10-31 will be at least 15% higher than the 2025-09-05 reading. — 56%
• Euro area flash HICP headline inflation (YoY) for September 2025 will be between 2.3% and 2.7% in Eurostat’s 2025-09-30 release. — 56%
• U.S. Advance Retail and Food Services sales month-over-month for September 2025 will be between -0.2% and +0.5% in the Census release on 2025-10-16. — 55%
• Tokyo CPI excluding fresh food (core) year-over-year for September 2025 will be between 2.3% and 2.7% in the release due by 2025-10-04 (JST). — 56%
• UK GfK Consumer Confidence index for October 2025 will be at or above -12 in the release due by 2025-10-25. — 55%
• EIA Weekly U.S. Field Production of Crude Oil will reach at or above 13.4 million barrels per day in at least one report for a week ending by 2025-10-25, published by 2025-10-31. — 56%
• By 2025-10-31, OFAC will announce at least one sanctions designation under its Venezuela-related program via public press release or sanctions list update. — 60%

2025-09-18 — 135 items — newsletter

• On 2025-09-21 (JST release window), the Bank of Japan will leave its short-term policy rate unchanged at its September meeting. — 62%
• Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) will close at or above 22.00 on at least one trading day by 2025-10-31. — 57%
• Bitcoin (BTC-USD) will trade at or above $74,000 on at least one day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 55%
• NYMEX Henry Hub natural gas front-month futures will settle at or above $3.20 per MMBtu on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30. — 56%
• U.S. Initial Jobless Claims (seasonally adjusted) will be at or above 245,000 in at least one weekly report released by 2025-10-31. — 56%
• Copernicus ERA5 global surface air temperature for September 2025 will be the warmest September on record, per C3S monthly bulletin released by 2025-10-10. — 59%
• The MBA Refinance Share of Mortgage Applications will reach at or above 36% in at least one weekly report released by 2025-10-31. — 57%
• The U.S. 2-Year Treasury yield (FRED: DGS2) will close at or below 3.95% on at least one trading day by 2025-10-31. — 56%
• By 2025-10-31, the U.S. Commerce Department’s BIS will publish a Federal Register rule expanding export controls on advanced AI chips to China. — 56%
• Nikkei 225 (^N225) will close at or above 42,500 on at least one trading day by 2025-10-31 (Tokyo time). — 55%
• The Conference Board U.S. Consumer Confidence Index for September 2025 will be at or below 102.0 in the 2025-09-24 release. — 56%

2025-09-17 — 139 items — newsletter

• U.S. housing starts (SAAR) for August 2025 will be between 1.23 million and 1.34 million in the Census Bureau New Residential Construction release on 2025-09-18. — 57%
• On 2025-09-26, the Swiss National Bank will cut its policy rate by 25 basis points. — 58%
• By 2025-10-31, OFAC will announce at least one sanctions designation under its Iran-related program via public press release or sanctions list update. — 60%
• The AAA-reported California state average price for regular gasoline will reach at or above $5.60 per gallon on at least one day by 2025-10-15. — 57%
• By 2025-10-31 (UTC), NOAA SWPC will record at least one solar flare of class X1.0 or higher. — 56%
• Germany Ifo Business Climate index for September 2025 will print between 84.0 and 87.0 in the release on 2025-09-25. — 56%
• EUR/USD (Yahoo Finance: EURUSD=X) will close at or above 1.0900 on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 55%
• LME 3-month Nickel official settlement price will reach at or above $19,000 per metric ton on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30. — 55%
• Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) for August 2025 will print between -0.20 and +0.15 in the release on 2025-09-23. — 55%
• UK GfK Consumer Confidence index for September 2025 will be at or above -13 in the release due by 2025-09-20. — 55%
• NYMEX RBOB gasoline front-month futures will settle at or above $2.60 per gallon on at least one trading day by 2025-10-31. — 55%
• U.S. ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index for September 2025 will print at or above 49.0 in the 2025-10-01 release. — 56%
• China Total Social Financing (TSF) for September 2025 will be at or above CNY 3.2 trillion in the PBoC release by 2025-10-15. — 54%

2025-09-16 — 132 items — newsletter

• China NBS Manufacturing PMI for September 2025 will print between 49.5 and 50.5 in the release on 2025-09-30. — 57%
• Tokyo CPI ‘core-core’ (excluding fresh food and energy) year-over-year for September 2025 will be between 1.6% and 1.9% in the release by 2025-10-04. — 55%
• U.S. unemployment rate for September 2025 will be between 4.0% and 4.2%, per BLS Employment Situation on 2025-10-03. — 58%
• U.S. CPI-U headline year-over-year for September 2025 will be between 2.7% and 3.1%, as reported by BLS on 2025-10-10. — 57%
• U.S. CPI-U core (all items less food and energy) year-over-year for September 2025 will be between 3.0% and 3.3%, as reported by BLS on 2025-10-10. — 56%
• NYMEX WTI front-month crude futures will settle at or above $93.00 per barrel on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30. — 55%
• The LBMA Gold Price PM will fix at or above $2,600 per troy ounce on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30. — 55%
• USD/JPY (Yahoo Finance: JPY=X) will close at or above 154.00 on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 55%
• Solana (SOL-USD) will trade at or above $190 on at least one day by 2025-10-31 (UTC). — 54%
• By 2025-10-31, OFAC will announce at least one sanctions designation under its Russia-related program via public press release or sanctions list update. — 62%
• U.S. JOLTS Job Openings for August 2025 will be at or above 8.5 million in the BLS release on 2025-10-01. — 55%
• The U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield (FRED: DGS10) will close at or below 3.65% on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30. — 55%

2025-09-15 — 93 items — newsletter

• On 2025-09-18, the Bank of England MPC vote split will include at least one member voting to keep Bank Rate unchanged. — 60%
• ISM Services PMI for September 2025 will print between 50.0 and 52.5 in the 2025-10-03 release. — 56%
• U.S. core PCE price index month-over-month for August 2025 will be between 0.1% and 0.2% in the BEA release on 2025-09-27. — 58%
• The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey 15-year fixed mortgage rate will be at or below 5.85% in at least one weekly reading released by 2025-10-31. — 55%
• The ICE BofA US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread (FRED: BAMLH0A0HYM2) will reach at or above 4.50% on at least one day by 2025-10-31. — 56%
• The LBMA Gold Price PM will fix at or above $2,550 per troy ounce on at least one trading day by 2025-10-31. — 55%
• For the week ending 2025-09-27, EIA will report a U.S. working natural gas storage change between +75 and +100 Bcf in the Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report released by 2025-10-03. — 55%
• U.S. Industrial Production month-over-month for September 2025 will be between -0.2% and +0.3% in the Federal Reserve G.17 release on 2025-10-16. — 55%
• By 2025-10-31, the CFPB will announce at least one enforcement action or consent order involving a Buy-Now-Pay-Later provider. — 54%
• USD/JPY (Yahoo Finance: JPY=X) will close at or above 152.50 on at least one trading day by 2025-10-31 (UTC). — 55%

2025-09-14 — 87 items — newsletter

• U.S. PCE price index excluding food and energy (core) year-over-year for August 2025 will be between 2.6% and 2.9%, as reported by BEA on 2025-09-27. — 58%
• ISM Manufacturing PMI for September 2025 will print between 47.0 and 49.5 in the 2025-10-01 release. — 56%
• The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey 30-year fixed mortgage rate will be at or below 6.40% in at least one weekly reading released by 2025-10-31. — 55%
• From 2025-09-15 close to 2025-10-31 close, NVIDIA (NVDA) will underperform the Nasdaq-100 Index (^NDX) by at least 5.0 percentage points based on percentage change in adjusted close prices. — 55%
• By 2025-10-14, California Governor Gavin Newsom will veto AI safety bill SB 53 (or return it without signature), as recorded on the California Legislative Information site. — 56%
• The U.S. national average diesel price (AAA) will reach at or above $4.25 per gallon on at least one day by 2025-10-31. — 55%
• EUR/GBP (Yahoo Finance: EURGBP=X) will close at or above 0.8600 on at least one trading day by 2025-10-31 (UTC). — 56%
• Euro area HICP core (excluding energy and unprocessed food) flash estimate year-over-year for September 2025 will be between 2.6% and 2.9%, per Eurostat release on 2025-09-30. — 55%
• By 2025-10-31, OFAC will announce at least one sanctions designation under its North Korea-related program (DPRK), via public press release or sanctions list update. — 58%
• The Drewry World Container Index Shanghai–Los Angeles weekly spot rate published on or before 2025-10-31 will be at least 15% higher than the 2025-09-05 reading. — 56%
• Copernicus ERA5 global surface air temperature for October 2025 will rank within the top 3 warmest Octobers on record, per the C3S monthly Climate Bulletin released by 2025-11-10. — 59%
• U.S. insured unemployment (continuing claims, seasonally adjusted) will be at or above 1.92 million in at least one weekly reading reported by 2025-10-31. — 55%

2025-09-13 — 126 items — newsletter

• At the September 17, 2025 FOMC, the SEP median longer-run federal funds rate will be 2.8%. — 62%
• U.S. Industrial Production m/m (seasonally adjusted) for August 2025 will be between -0.3% and 0.2% in the Board of Governors G.17 release on 2025-09-17. — 55%
• USD/MXN (Yahoo Finance: MXN=X) will close at or above 19.00 on at least one trading day by 2025-10-31 (UTC). — 57%
• By 2025-10-31, either Joby Aviation or Archer Aviation will publicly announce completion of at least one passenger-carrying flight in the U.S. conducted under the FAA’s limited pre-certification eVTOL operations program. — 58%
• By 2025-10-31, OFAC will announce at least one sanctions designation of a Mexico-based individual or entity under the Kingpin Act (SDNT/SDNTK). — 62%
• ICE Endex Dutch TTF Natural Gas front-month futures will settle at or above €45.00 per MWh on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30. — 55%
• From 2025-09-13 close to 2025-10-31 close, Tesla (TSLA) will underperform SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) by at least 5.0 percentage points based on percentage change in adjusted close prices. — 56%
• The U.S. national average regular gasoline price (AAA) will reach at or above $3.90 per gallon on at least one day by 2025-10-15. — 56%
• UK CPI headline year-over-year for August 2025 will be between 2.8% and 3.2%, as reported by ONS on 2025-09-18. — 55%
• The Boeing defense workers strike will still be ongoing on 2025-09-30 (no ratified agreement announced by that date). — 57%

2025-09-12 — 139 items — newsletter

• University of Michigan 5-year inflation expectations (prelim) for September 2025 will be between 2.8% and 3.1%, reported on 2025-09-13. — 55%
• U.S. Import Price Index excluding petroleum m/m for August 2025 will be at or above 0.2% in the BLS release on 2025-09-13. — 54%
• U.S. Retail Sales headline m/m for August 2025 will be between 0.1% and 0.5% in the Census release on 2025-09-17. — 55%
• U.S. PPI final demand less foods, energy, and trade services m/m for August 2025 will be between 0.2% and 0.5% in the BLS release on 2025-09-12. — 56%
• At the September 17, 2025 FOMC, the SEP median projection for the federal funds rate at end-2026 will be between 3.0% and 3.5% (midpoint terms). — 56%
• EUR/USD (Yahoo Finance: EURUSD=X) will close at or below 1.0600 on at least one trading day by 2025-10-31 (UTC). — 55%
• Nasdaq-100 Index (^NDX) will close at or above 20,000 on at least one trading day by 2025-10-31. — 56%
• COMEX Copper front-month futures (HG) will settle at or above $4.20 per pound on at least one trading day by 2025-10-31. — 54%
• For the week ending 2025-09-19, EIA will report a U.S. working natural gas storage change between +70 and +95 Bcf in the Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report released on 2025-09-26. — 55%
• By 2025-10-31 (UTC), NOAA SWPC will record at least one Kp index reading of 7 or higher. — 56%
• UK CPI core (ex food, energy, alcohol & tobacco) year-over-year for August 2025 will be between 2.8% and 3.2%, as reported by ONS on 2025-09-18. — 55%
• On 2025-09-18, the Bank of England will cut Bank Rate by 25 basis points. — 54%
• The Drewry World Container Index Shanghai–Rotterdam weekly spot rate published on or before 2025-09-26 will be at least 10% higher than the 2025-08-29 reading. — 56%

2025-09-11 — 129 items — newsletter

• Euro area HICP flash year-over-year for September 2025 will be between 2.4% and 2.8%, per Eurostat release on 2025-09-30. — 55%
• University of Michigan 1-year inflation expectations (prelim) for September 2025 will be between 2.8% and 3.2%, reported on 2025-09-13. — 54%
• The S&P 500 Index (SPX) will close at or above 5650 on at least one trading day by 2025-10-15 (New York time). — 56%
• Cboe VIX futures curve will be in backwardation (VX1 settlement > VX2 settlement) for at least 2 consecutive trading days by 2025-10-31. — 55%
• The U.S. 2-year/10-year Treasury yield spread (FRED: T10Y2Y) will close at or above 0.00% on at least one trading day by 2025-10-31. — 54%
• ICE Brent front-month crude futures will settle at or above $96.00 per barrel on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30. — 55%
• USD/CNH (Yahoo Finance: CNH=X) will close at or above 7.50 on at least one trading day by 2025-11-30 (UTC). — 54%
• Ethereum (ETH-USD) will trade at or above $3,300 on at least one day by 2025-10-31 (UTC). — 55%
• ICE Endex EU ETS EUA December-2025 futures will settle at or above €67.00 per metric ton at least once by 2025-10-31. — 54%
• By 2025-10-31, OFAC will announce at least one sanctions designation explicitly naming Hezbollah or Hezbollah-linked individuals/entities via a public press release or sanctions list update. — 56%
• The LBMA Silver Price PM will fix at or above $35.00/oz on at least one trading day by 2025-10-31. — 54%

2025-09-10 — 141 items — newsletter

• U.S. CPI-U core (all items less food and energy) year-over-year for August 2025 will be between 3.1% and 3.4%, as reported by BLS on 2025-09-11. — 57%
• U.S. Retail Sales control group (ex autos, gasoline, building materials, and food services) month-over-month for August 2025 will be between -0.1% and 0.3% in the Census release on 2025-09-17. — 55%
• At the September 17, 2025 FOMC, the SEP median projection for the federal funds rate at end-2025 will be between 4.50% and 5.00% (midpoint terms). — 56%
• From 2025-09-10 close to 2025-09-30 close, Oracle (ORCL) will outperform SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) by at least 4.0 percentage points based on percentage change in adjusted close prices. — 57%
• The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) will close at or above 20.00 on at least one trading day by 2025-10-31. — 54%
• USD/CNH (Yahoo Finance: CNH=X) will close at or above 7.45 on at least one trading day by 2025-10-31 (UTC). — 55%
• ICE Brent front-month crude futures will settle at or above $94.00 per barrel on at least one trading day by 2025-10-31. — 54%
• By 2025-10-31, the U.S. Treasury’s OFAC will designate at least one PRC-based individual or entity for fentanyl, precursor chemicals, or related trafficking via a public press release or sanctions list update. — 58%
• Copernicus ERA5 global surface air temperature for September 2025 will rank within the top 3 warmest Septembers on record, per the C3S monthly Climate Bulletin released by 2025-10-10. — 59%
• Bitcoin (BTC-USD) will trade at or above $68,000 on at least one day by 2025-10-31. — 54%
• By 2025-10-15, the npm/GitHub Advisory Database will publish at least one Critical-severity advisory for a compromised npm package with ≥100,000 weekly downloads at time of disclosure. — 56%
• U.S. initial jobless claims (seasonally adjusted) will be at or above 240,000 for at least one weekly reading reported by 2025-10-31. — 55%

2025-09-09 — 1102 items — newsletter

• U.S. CPI-U headline year-over-year for August 2025 will be between 2.7% and 3.1%, as reported by BLS on 2025-09-11. — 58%
• At the September 2025 FOMC meeting (decision expected 2025-09-17), the Fed will cut the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 bp to 4.75%–5.00%. — 54%
• The U.S. 2-Year Treasury yield (FRED: DGS2) will close at or below 3.95% on at least one trading day by 2025-10-31. — 55%
• From 2025-09-09 close to 2025-10-15 close, Robinhood Markets (HOOD) will outperform SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) by at least 6.0 percentage points based on percentage change in adjusted close prices. — 57%
• By 2025-10-31 (UTC), the AWS Service Health Dashboard will post at least one public incident citing subsea cable disruption in the Red Sea/Suez/Gulf of Aden region causing connectivity degradation or traffic rerouting. — 53%
• For the week ending 2025-09-20, EIA will report a U.S. motor gasoline inventory build of at least 1.5 million barrels in the Weekly Petroleum Status Report released on 2025-09-25. — 54%
• By 2025-10-31, the U.S. Treasury’s OFAC will announce at least one new sanctions designation targeting Iranian defense, missile, or UAV sector entities or individuals via a public press release or sanctions list update. — 58%
• The Nikkei 225 (N225) will close at or above 44,500 on at least one trading day by 2025-10-15 (Tokyo time). — 56%
• NYMEX Henry Hub front-month natural gas futures will settle at or above $3.40 per MMBtu on at least one trading day by 2025-10-31. — 54%
• The U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield (FRED: DGS10) will close at or below 3.80% on at least one trading day by 2025-10-31. — 53%

2025-09-08 — 85 items — newsletter

• The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) will close at or below 12.50 on at least one trading day by 2025-09-30. — 58%
• USD/JPY (Yahoo Finance: JPY=X) will close at or above 152.00 on at least one trading day by 2025-09-30. — 54%
• U.S. Producer Price Index (final demand) m/m for August 2025 will be between 0.2% and 0.5% in the BLS release on 2025-09-12. — 57%
• By 2025-09-30, the U.S. Department of Defense will announce at least one Ukraine security assistance package via Presidential Drawdown Authority valued at $250 million or more. — 60%
• By 2025-10-31 (UTC), Cloudflare Status will post an incident citing subsea cable disruption in the Red Sea/Suez/Gulf of Aden region causing connectivity degradation or traffic rerouting. — 53%
• NYMEX RBOB Gasoline front-month futures will settle at or above $2.75 per gallon on at least one trading day by 2025-10-15. — 55%
• By 2025-10-31, the Council of the European Union will adopt and publish in the Official Journal at least one new Russia-related restrictive measures act (package or listings). — 56%

2025-09-07 — 86 items — newsletter

• By 2025-10-31, the U.S. Trade Representative will formally announce initiation of a Section 301 investigation into alleged discriminatory EU actions against U.S. tech firms via a USTR press release or Federal Register notice. — 56%
• For the week ending 2025-09-13, EIA will report a U.S. distillate fuel oil inventory build of at least 2.0 million barrels in the Weekly Petroleum Status Report released on 2025-09-18. — 55%
• COMEX Gold front-month futures will settle at or above $2,680/oz on at least one trading day by 2025-10-31. — 57%
• From 2025-09-08 close to 2025-10-31 close, Kraft Heinz (KHC) will underperform Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR (XLP) by at least 5.0 percentage points based on percentage change in adjusted close prices. — 56%
• By 2025-10-31 (UTC), at least one of Microsoft Azure Status or Google Cloud Status will post a public incident citing subsea cable disruption in the Red Sea/Suez/Gulf of Aden region causing connectivity degradation or traffic rerouting. — 53%
• By 2025-10-31, the U.S. Treasury’s OFAC will announce at least one new sanctions designation targeting Russian defense-industrial or financial sector entities or individuals via a public press release or sanctions list update. — 60%
• The 10-Year Treasury Inflation-Indexed Security, Constant Maturity (FRED: DFII10) will close at or below 1.50% on at least one trading day by 2025-10-31. — 56%

2025-09-06 — 131 items — newsletter

• U.S. CPI-U headline m/m (seasonally adjusted) for August 2025 will be between 0.0% and 0.2%, as reported by BLS on 2025-09-11. — 57%
• The U.S. 5-Year Treasury yield (FRED: DGS5) will close at or below 3.95% on at least one trading day by 2025-09-30. — 56%
• By 2025-09-09, OPEC+ will announce no net increase to aggregate production targets for October 2025 versus September 2025 in its official post-meeting communiqué. — 58%
• From 2025-09-06 close to 2025-09-27 close, AppLovin (APP) will outperform SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) by at least 4.0 percentage points based on percentage change in adjusted close prices. — 55%
• By 2025-10-15, the U.S. Treasury’s OFAC will announce at least one new sanctions designation targeting Brazilian individuals or entities via a public press release or sanctions list update. — 55%
• NYMEX WTI front-month futures will settle at or above $92.50 per barrel at least once by 2025-10-15. — 55%
• By 2025-10-31, Google (Alphabet Inc.) will file an appeal against the European Commission’s €2.95B ad tech fine with the General Court of the European Union. — 59%

2025-09-05 — 138 items — newsletter

• Between 2025-09-05 and 2025-09-20, the S&P 500 Index (SPX) will set at least three new all-time closing highs. — 55%
• From 2025-09-05 close to 2025-09-20 close, Broadcom (AVGO) will outperform iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) by at least 3.0 percentage points based on percentage change in adjusted close prices. — 57%
• From 2025-09-05 close to 2025-09-30 close, T. Rowe Price (TROW) will outperform SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) by at least 6.0 percentage points based on percentage change in adjusted close prices. — 56%
• The Drewry World Container Index Shanghai–New York weekly spot rate published on or before 2025-09-26 will be at least 10% higher than the 2025-08-29 reading. — 56%
• The 10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate (FRED: T10YIE) will close at or below 2.20% on at least one trading day by 2025-09-30. — 55%
• By 2025-10-31 (UTC), NOAA SWPC will record at least one X1.0-class or stronger solar flare. — 58%
• ICE UK Emissions Allowance (UKA) December-2025 futures will settle at or above £44.00 per metric ton at least once by 2025-10-31. — 55%

2025-09-04 — 137 items — newsletter

• By 2025-10-31, the U.S. Department of Justice will file a remedies proposal in the Google Search antitrust case that seeks to prohibit Google from paying for default search placement on browsers or devices. — 57%
• The LBMA Gold Price PM will fix at or above $2,650/oz on at least two trading days by 2025-10-31. — 55%
• The U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield (FRED: DGS10) will close at or below 3.95% on at least one trading day by 2025-09-30. — 56%
• At Apple’s September 9, 2025 event, the U.S. starting price for the base iPhone 16 Pro will be announced as at least $1,099. — 57%
• ICE Endex Dutch TTF front-month natural gas futures will settle at or above €40.00/MWh on at least one trading day by 2025-10-31. — 54%
• NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center will issue at least one G3 (Strong) geomagnetic storm watch or warning by 2025-10-31 (UTC). — 56%
• U.S. CPI-U core m/m (seasonally adjusted) for August 2025 will be at or below 0.3%, as reported by BLS on 2025-09-11. — 58%

2025-09-03 — 139 items — newsletter

• From 2025-09-03 close to 2025-09-30 close, Alphabet Inc. Class A (GOOGL) will outperform SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) by at least 2.0 percentage points based on percentage change in adjusted close prices. — 57%
• From 2025-09-03 close to 2025-10-15 close, PepsiCo (PEP) will outperform Coca-Cola (KO) by at least 3.0 percentage points based on percentage change in adjusted close prices. — 56%
• The U.S. 30-Year Treasury yield (FRED: DGS30) will close at or above 5.05% on at least one trading day by 2025-09-30. — 56%
• From 2025-09-03 close to 2025-10-15 close, Salesforce (CRM) will underperform Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) by at least 4.0 percentage points based on percentage change in adjusted close prices. — 55%
• By 2025-09-30, the U.S. Treasury’s OFAC will announce at least one new sanctions designation targeting Venezuelan individuals, entities, or vessels via a public press release or sanctions list update. — 55%
• The Drewry World Container Index Composite published on or before 2025-09-26 will be at least 8% higher than the 2025-08-29 reading. — 55%
• By 2025-09-27, U.S. Core PCE price index m/m (seasonally adjusted) for August 2025 will be between 0.2% and 0.3%. — 58%
• On at least one trading day by 2025-09-10, CME FedWatch will show a combined probability at or below 20% for a 50 bp or larger cut at the September 2025 FOMC meeting. — 56%

2025-09-02 — 97 items — newsletter

• The LBMA Gold Price PM will fix at or above $2,600/oz on at least five days by 2025-09-30. — 60%
• From 2025-09-02 close to 2025-09-30 close, BAE Systems plc (BA/ LN) will outperform the FTSE 100 Index (UKX) by at least 3.5 percentage points based on percentage change in adjusted close prices. — 58%
• From 2025-09-02 close to 2025-09-30 close, Ørsted A/S (ORSTED DC) will outperform the STOXX Europe 600 Utilities Index (SX6P) by at least 6.0 percentage points based on percentage change in adjusted close prices. — 55%
• ICE EUA December-2025 futures will settle at or above €75.00 per metric ton on at least five trading days by 2025-09-30. — 56%
• ICE Brent front-month futures will settle at or above $95.00 per barrel at least once by 2025-10-15. — 55%
• From 2025-09-02 close to 2025-09-30 close, Novo Nordisk (NOVO-B DC) will outperform the STOXX Europe 600 Health Care Index (SXDP) by at least 4.0 percentage points based on percentage change in adjusted close prices. — 59%
• From 2025-09-02 close to 2025-09-30 close, Dollar General (DG) will underperform SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) by at least 4.0 percentage points based on percentage change in adjusted close prices. — 57%

2025-09-01 — 88 items — newsletter

• U.S. Average Hourly Earnings m/m (seasonally adjusted) for August 2025 will be between 0.2% and 0.3%. — 57%
• U.S. nonfarm payrolls (change in total nonfarm employment, SA) for August 2025 will be between +130,000 and +230,000. — 55%
• The U.S. 2-Year Treasury yield (FRED: DGS2) will close at or below 3.85% on at least one trading day by 2025-09-30. — 55%
• The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) will close at or above 20.00 on at least two trading days by 2025-09-30. — 56%
• For the week ending 2025-09-06, EIA will report a U.S. total motor gasoline inventory draw of at least 1.5 million barrels on 2025-09-11. — 54%
• Between 2025-09-01 and 2025-09-30 (UTC), UKMTO will issue at least six incident reports/advisories for the Red Sea, Bab el-Mandeb, or Gulf of Aden. — 60%
• Drewry WCI Shanghai–Los Angeles weekly spot rate published on or before 2025-09-26 will be at least 12% higher than the 2025-08-29 reading. — 56%
• At Apple’s September 9, 2025 event, the U.S. starting price for the base iPhone 16 will be announced as $799 (unchanged from iPhone 15). — 59%

2025-08-31 — 89 items — newsletter

• USD/JPY spot will trade at or above 152.50 at least once by 2025-09-30 (UTC). — 56%
• Between 2025-08-31 and 2025-09-30 (UTC), Yemen’s Houthi movement will claim at least two attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea or Gulf of Aden. — 60%
• USD/MXN spot will trade at or above 18.50 at least once by 2025-09-30 (UTC). — 55%
• By 2025-09-30, U.S. Customs and Border Protection or the Federal Register will publish implementation guidance addressing the August 2025 appellate ruling on Trump-era tariffs. — 58%
• The Drewry World Container Index Shanghai–Rotterdam weekly rate published on or before 2025-09-26 will be at least 10% higher than the 2025-08-29 reading. — 55%
• From 2025-08-30 close to 2025-09-20 close, Rexford Industrial Realty (REXR) will outperform Vanguard Real Estate ETF (VNQ) by at least 3.0 percentage points based on adjusted close prices. — 58%
• By 2025-09-17, CME FedWatch will show a combined probability of at least 40% for a 50 bp or larger cut at the September 2025 FOMC meeting on at least one trading day. — 56%

2025-08-30 — 123 items — newsletter

• U.S. ISM Services Prices Paid index (August 2025) will be at or above 56.0. — 54%
• From 2025-08-30 close to 2025-09-30 close, Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) will outperform SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) by at least 1.5 percentage points based on adjusted close prices. — 56%
• USD/CNH spot will trade at or above 7.45 at least once by 2025-09-30 (UTC). — 56%
• U.S. initial jobless claims (seasonally adjusted) for the week ending 2025-09-06 will be at or below 230,000, as reported on 2025-09-11. — 58%
• For the week ending 2025-09-06, EIA will report a U.S. crude oil inventory build of at least 3.0 million barrels (ex-SPR) on 2025-09-11. — 54%
• The 5-Year, 5-Year Forward Inflation Expectation Rate (FRED: T5YIFR) will close at or below 2.25% on at least one trading day by 2025-09-30. — 55%
• U.S. JOLTS Job Openings (July 2025, seasonally adjusted total) will be at or below 7.75 million. — 57%

2025-08-29 — 132 items — newsletter

• Euro area August 2025 core HICP (Eurostat, flash) will be between 2.6% and 2.9% year-over-year. — 58%
• U.S. ISM Services PMI (August 2025, headline) will print at or above 51.0. — 57%
• U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for August 2025 will be between 4.2% and 4.4%. — 55%
• NYMEX Henry Hub natural gas front-month futures (CME: NG) will settle at or above $3.20/MMBtu at least once by 2025-10-15. — 54%
• At the September 2025 FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve will lower the federal funds target range by at least 50 basis points. — 52%
• U.S. CPI-U headline m/m (seasonally adjusted) for August 2025 will be between 0.2% and 0.4%. — 58%
• From 2025-08-29 close to 2025-09-30 close, iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) will underperform Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) by at least 3.0 percentage points based on adjusted close prices. — 55%

2025-08-28 — 132 items — newsletter

• At its September 12, 2025 meeting, the European Central Bank will lower the deposit facility rate by at least 25 basis points. — 58%
• EUR/USD spot will trade at or below 1.0600 at least once by 2025-09-20 (UTC). — 56%
• From 2025-08-28 close to 2025-09-30 close, iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG) will underperform iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF (LQD) by at least 1.5 percentage points based on adjusted close prices. — 56%
• NYMEX WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil front-month futures (CME: CL) will settle at or above $91.50 per barrel at least once by 2025-10-15. — 55%
• The August 2025 ISM Manufacturing PMI (headline) will print below 50.0. — 59%
• U.S. initial jobless claims (seasonally adjusted) for the week ending 2025-09-13 will be at least 245,000, as reported on 2025-09-18. — 54%
• By 2025-09-20, PayPal will publish a public security advisory, blog post, or press release detailing remedial actions taken in response to the August 2025 German bank payment disruptions. — 57%

2025-08-27 — 134 items — newsletter

• At its September 9, 2025 event, Apple will announce at least one new iPhone model featuring on-device generative AI capabilities (e.g., text or image generation) that run locally without requiring cloud inference. — 63%
• U.S. Core CPI (CPI-U less food and energy) for August 2025 will be 0.2% to 0.3% m/m (seasonally adjusted). — 59%
• From 2025-08-27 close to 2025-10-15 close, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) will underperform Nvidia (NVDA) by at least 8.0 percentage points based on adjusted close prices. — 56%
• By 2025-10-15, AT&T will announce a definitive agreement to acquire EchoStar spectrum or related licenses in a transaction valued at $20 billion or more. — 62%
• By 2025-09-15, a U.S. federal court will issue a temporary restraining order or preliminary injunction preventing removal or suspension of Fed Governor Lisa Cook pending litigation. — 55%
• By 2025-10-31, the U.S. Department of Defense will publish a public RFI, memo, or Federal Register notice discussing potential government equity stakes or warrants in major U.S. defense contractors. — 54%
• Freddie Mac PMMS 30-year fixed-rate mortgage average will print at or above 7.50% in at least one weekly release by 2025-09-30. — 54%

2025-08-26 — 130 items — newsletter

• The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) will close at or above 106.00 on at least one trading day by 2025-09-20. — 57%
• The U.S. 10-year TIPS real yield (FRED: DFII10) will close at or below 1.70% on at least one trading day by 2025-09-30. — 58%
• The ICE BofA US Corporate Index OAS (FRED: BAMLCC0A0CM) will be at least 8 bps higher on 2025-09-30 than on 2025-08-26. — 56%
• From 2025-08-26 close to 2025-09-20 close, Interactive Brokers (IBKR) will outperform SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) by at least 4.0 percentage points based on adjusted close prices. — 60%
• From 2025-08-26 close to 2025-09-30 close, Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) will underperform SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) by at least 4.0 percentage points based on adjusted close prices. — 57%
• The U.S. national average regular gasoline price (AAA) on 2025-09-20 will be at least $0.07/gal higher than on 2025-08-26. — 56%
• By 2025-09-15, at least two of DHL Express, UPS, or FedEx will publish customer notices announcing temporary surcharges, suspensions, or material service changes for EU-to-U.S. small parcel shipments citing U.S. de minimis changes. — 62%
• University of Michigan September 2025 preliminary Consumer Sentiment Index will be at least 3.0 points lower than the August 2025 final reading. — 55%

2025-08-25 — 86 items — newsletter

• By 2025-10-15, Keurig Dr Pepper will announce a definitive agreement to acquire JDE Peet’s in a transaction valued at $15 billion or more. — 48%
• By 2025-09-10, the Comet AI browser will publish a security advisory and release a patch addressing the August 2025 prompt-injection account-draining vulnerability. — 67%
• By 2025-09-07, Cloudflare will publish a detailed postmortem with root cause and corrective actions for the August 21, 2025 outage. — 72%
• A Starship integrated flight test (IFT-10) will lift off from Starbase, Texas by 2025-09-30 (mission outcome after liftoff not required). — 59%
• By 2025-09-30, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield (FRED: DGS10) will close at or below 3.95% on at least one trading day. — 55%
• From 2025-08-25 close to 2025-09-30 close, KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB) will underperform SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) by at least 4.0 percentage points based on adjusted close prices. — 58%
• By 2025-10-31, the U.S. 2s10s Treasury yield spread (FRED: DGS10 minus DGS2, daily close) will be positive (>0 bps) on at least three trading days. — 54%

2025-08-24 — 86 items — newsletter

• At the September 2025 FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve will lower the federal funds target range by at least 25 basis points. — 62%
• From 2025-08-24 close to 2025-09-30 close, iShares Russell 2000 (IWM) will outperform SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) by at least 2.5 percentage points based on adjusted close prices. — 56%
• U.S. total nonfarm payrolls change for August 2025 (preliminary) will be between +100,000 and +200,000 jobs. — 57%
• The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) will close above 22.5 at least once by 2025-09-30. — 56%
• ICE Brent front-month futures will settle at or above $94.00 per barrel at least once by 2025-10-15. — 55%
• By 2025-09-30, the ICE BofA US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread (FRED: BAMLH0A0HYM2) will be at least 30 basis points higher than on 2025-08-23. — 56%
• By 2025-10-31, the U.S. SEC will publish an Investor Alert or press release warning about unauthorized special purpose vehicles (SPVs) or secondary share sales related to private AI companies. — 55%

2025-08-23 — 133 items — newsletter

• By 2025-09-30, U.S. Customs and Border Protection will publish in the Federal Register an NPRM or interim final rule modifying de minimis treatment under 19 U.S.C. 1321. — 61%
• By 2025-10-15, at least one U.S. offshore wind project of ≥ 500 MW will be officially paused, canceled, or have permits suspended by a federal or state authority or by the developer citing regulatory action. — 60%
• University of Michigan September 2025 preliminary 1-year inflation expectations will print between 2.8% and 3.3%. — 57%
• By 2025-09-30, the U.S. 2s10s Treasury yield spread (DGS10 minus DGS2, FRED daily close) will be positive (>0 bps) on at least one trading day. — 56%
• From 2025-08-23 close to 2025-09-30 close, the iShares Transportation Average ETF (IYT) will underperform SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) by at least 2.0 percentage points based on adjusted close prices. — 56%
• By 2025-10-31, the White House will announce a nominee for Director of the Defense Intelligence Agency. — 65%
• From 2025-08-23 close to 2025-09-30 close, Alphabet (GOOGL) will outperform SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) by at least 3.0 percentage points based on adjusted close prices. — 57%

2025-08-22 — 138 items — newsletter

• USD/JPY spot will trade at or above 152.00 at least once by 2025-09-20 (UTC). — 57%
• U.S. PPI Final Demand m/m (seasonally adjusted) for August 2025 will print between 0.1% and 0.4%. — 58%
• From 2025-08-22 close to 2025-09-27 close, XLP will outperform XLY by at least 3.0 percentage points based on adjusted close prices. — 56%
• The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield (constant maturity) will close at or above 4.45% on at least one trading day by 2025-09-20. — 55%
• By 2025-09-30, at least one of TP-Link, Netgear, Asus, or Ubiquiti will publish a firmware update or security advisory explicitly addressing the August 2025 Dnsmasq cache-poisoning CVE. — 62%
• From 2025-08-22 close to 2025-09-30 close, Alphabet (GOOGL) will outperform Microsoft (MSFT) by at least 2.0 percentage points based on adjusted close prices. — 57%
• From 2025-08-22 close to 2025-09-30 close, Tesla (TSLA) will underperform QQQ by at least 4.0 percentage points based on adjusted close prices. — 56%

2025-08-21 — 143 items — newsletter

• The U.S. Core PCE price index (m/m, SA) for August 2025 will be between 0.1% and 0.3%. — 58%
• By 2025-09-12, the U.S. 2s10s Treasury yield spread (10Y minus 2Y, closing values) will be at least 8 basis points larger than on 2025-08-20. — 58%
• From 2025-08-21 close to 2025-09-26 close, XLU will outperform SPY by at least 2.0 percentage points based on adjusted close prices. — 56%
• By 2025-10-01, NYMEX Henry Hub natural gas front-month futures will settle at or above $3.10 per MMBtu at least once. — 55%
• By 2025-10-15, Intel will announce a strategic equity or equity-linked financing of at least $5 billion involving SoftBank Group or its affiliates, via an Intel press release or SEC filing. — 55%
• From 2025-08-21 00:00 UTC to 2025-09-30 00:00 UTC, Ethereum (ETH-USD) will outperform Bitcoin (BTC-USD) by at least 4.0 percentage points in USD return. — 57%
• By 2025-09-30, COMEX Gold (GC) front-month futures will settle at or above $2,600 per troy ounce at least once. — 56%

2025-08-20 — 131 items — newsletter

• By 2025-09-17, Ubuntu, Debian, and Red Hat will each publish a security advisory with fixed package versions addressing the newly disclosed Dnsmasq cache-poisoning vulnerability (CVE assigned August 2025). — 70%
• From 2025-08-20 close to 2025-09-20 close, the ETF HACK will outperform QQQ by at least 2.0 percentage points. — 56%
• By 2025-10-15, the U.S. Treasury (OFAC) will sanction at least one non-Russian entity or vessel for Russia oil price-cap evasion, explicitly cited in a Treasury press release. — 62%
• U.S. headline CPI (CPI-U, all items) for August 2025 will be 0.2% to 0.4% m/m (seasonally adjusted). — 58%
• By 2025-09-20, COMEX front-month copper (HG) will settle below $3.70/lb on at least one trading day. — 57%
• ICE Brent front-month settlement will close at or above $92.00/bbl at least once by 2025-10-01. — 55%
• By 2025-10-31, Nvidia will announce a China-compliant AI accelerator (new or modified model) designed to meet U.S. export rules, via an official Nvidia press release or SEC filing. — 61%

2025-08-19 — 127 items — newsletter

• The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) will close above 19.5 at least once by 2025-09-06. — 57%
• By 2025-08-30, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield will close at least 12 bps below its 2025-08-19 close. — 56%
• Bitcoin (BTC-USD) will trade intraday below $108,000 on Coinbase at least once by 2025-08-29. — 59%
• From 2025-08-19 close to 2025-09-13 close, Intel (INTC) will outperform the PHLX Semiconductor Index (SOX) by at least 5.0 percentage points. — 56%
• By 2025-10-15, at least one Fortune 500 company will disclose a material cybersecurity incident attributed to a third-party supplier or compromised open-source component. — 64%
• The U.S. national average regular gasoline price (AAA) will be at least $0.05/gal higher on 2025-09-02 than on 2025-08-19. — 54%
• By 2025-10-31, a China-based automaker will announce a new EV assembly plant or a manufacturing investment of at least $200 million outside China (e.g., EU, Mexico, Middle East). — 61%

2025-08-18 — 78 items — newsletter

• From 2025-08-18 close to 2025-08-26 close, the U.S. 2-year Treasury yield will move by at least 10 basis points in absolute terms. — 64%
• From 2025-08-18 close to 2025-08-29 close, ITB will underperform SPY by at least 2.0 percentage points. — 58%
• The U.S. Core CPI (CPI-U, all items less food and energy) for August 2025 will be 0.2% to 0.3% m/m (seasonally adjusted). — 56%
• The Freddie Mac PMMS 30-year fixed mortgage rate for the week ending 2025-09-19 will be at least 10 bps lower than the week ending 2025-08-15. — 60%
• Between 2025-08-21 and 2025-08-26 (inclusive), the S&P 500 will post at least one daily close-to-close decline of 1.25% or more. — 55%
• By 2025-10-31, at least one major U.S. bank (Amex, Chase, Citi, Capital One, or Bank of America) will announce an increased annual fee or a material benefit devaluation on a co-branded airline credit card. — 57%

2025-08-16 — 124 items — newsletter

• ICE Brent front-month settlement will close between $78 and $90 per barrel on 2025-09-16. — 65%
• At the September 2025 FOMC meeting, the Fed will change the target range by no more than 25 bps (i.e., either hold or adjust ±25 bps, not ≥50 bps). — 70%
• By 2025-10-31, at least two U.S.-listed tech IPOs (NYSE/Nasdaq) with IPO valuations ≥ $1B will close their first trading day ≥10% above offer price. — 60%
• From 2025-08-15 close to 2025-09-30 close, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) will underperform the S&P 500 by at least 3 percentage points. — 62%
• The MBA Refinance Index 4-week average for the week ending 2025-09-19 will be at least 10% higher than the 4-week average for the week ending 2025-08-15. — 66%
• California’s August 2025 unemployment rate will be at least 5.4% in the BLS state employment release. — 68%
• OpenAI will announce completion of a secondary share sale of at least $5B at an implied valuation between $450B and $550B by 2025-10-31. — 58%

2025-08-15 — 131 items — newsletter

• The price of oil will continue to experience fluctuations in the next month due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and uncertainty surrounding global demand, with a confidence of 75%. — 75%
• Tech stocks will face continued regulatory scrutiny in the next two weeks, leading to higher volatility in the market, with a confidence of 80%. — 80%
• Renewable energy stocks will maintain their outperformance over traditional energy sectors in the next month as more countries announce new green energy initiatives, with a confidence of 85%. — 85%
• The housing market will encounter ongoing challenges in the next three months as rising interest rates and supply chain disruptions continue to impact construction activity, with a confidence of 75%. — 75%
• The overall market index will exhibit fluctuations in the next three weeks as uncertainty surrounding global economic recovery and inflation concerns persist, influencing investor behavior, with a confidence of 80%. — 80%

2025-08-14 — 134 items — newsletter

• The price of oil will continue to experience fluctuations in the next month due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and uncertainty surrounding global demand, with a confidence of 70%. — 70%
• Tech stocks will face continued regulatory scrutiny in the next two weeks, leading to higher volatility in the market, with a confidence of 75%. — 75%
• Renewable energy stocks will maintain their outperformance over traditional energy sectors in the next month as more countries announce new green energy initiatives, with a confidence of 80%. — 80%
• The housing market will encounter ongoing challenges in the next three months as rising interest rates and supply chain disruptions continue to impact construction activity, with a confidence of 70%. — 70%
• The overall market index will exhibit fluctuations in the next three weeks as uncertainty surrounding global economic recovery and inflation concerns persist, influencing investor behavior, with a confidence of 75%. — 75%

2025-08-13 — 130 items — newsletter

• The price of oil will see further fluctuations in the next month due to uncertainty surrounding global demand and ongoing geopolitical tensions, with a confidence of 70%. — 70%
• Tech stocks will face continued regulatory scrutiny in the next two weeks, leading to higher volatility in the market, with a confidence of 75%. — 75%
• Renewable energy stocks will maintain their outperformance over traditional energy sectors in the next month as more countries announce new green energy initiatives, with a confidence of 80%. — 80%
• The housing market will encounter ongoing challenges in the next three months as rising interest rates and supply chain disruptions continue to impact construction activity, with a confidence of 70%. — 70%
• The overall market index will exhibit fluctuations in the next three weeks as uncertainty surrounding global economic recovery and inflation concerns persist, influencing investor behavior, with a confidence of 75%. — 75%

2025-08-12 — 129 items — newsletter

• The price of oil will continue to experience fluctuations in the next month due to uncertainty surrounding global demand and ongoing geopolitical tensions, with a confidence of 70%. — 70%
• Tech stocks will face increased regulatory scrutiny in the next two weeks, leading to higher volatility in the market, with a confidence of 75%. — 75%
• Renewable energy stocks will see a surge in performance over traditional energy sectors in the next month as more countries announce new green energy initiatives, with a confidence of 80%. — 80%
• The housing market will encounter challenges in the next three months as rising interest rates and supply chain disruptions continue to impact construction activity, with a confidence of 70%. — 70%
• The overall market index will exhibit fluctuations in the next three weeks as uncertainty surrounding global economic recovery and inflation concerns persist, influencing investor behavior, with a confidence of 75%. — 75%

2025-08-11 — 95 items — newsletter

• The price of oil will experience a slight increase in the next month as global demand picks up amidst ongoing supply chain disruptions and geopolitical tensions, with a confidence of 70%. — 70%
• Tech stocks will continue to face increased volatility in the next two weeks as regulatory scrutiny on big tech companies intensifies and market sentiment remains uncertain, with a confidence of 75%. — 75%
• Renewable energy stocks will maintain their outperformance over traditional energy sectors in the next month as more countries announce new green energy initiatives, with a confidence of 80%. — 80%
• The housing market will confront further challenges in the next three months due to rising interest rates and ongoing supply chain disruptions impacting construction activity, with a confidence of 70%. — 70%
• The overall market index will exhibit fluctuations in the next three weeks as uncertainties surrounding global economic recovery, inflation concerns, and geopolitical tensions persist, influencing investor behavior, with a confidence of 75%. — 75%

2025-08-10 — 78 items — newsletter

• The price of oil will see a slight increase in the next month as global demand picks up amidst ongoing supply chain disruptions and geopolitical tensions, with a confidence of 70%. — 70%
• Tech stocks will continue to face increased volatility in the next two weeks as regulatory scrutiny on big tech companies intensifies and market sentiment remains uncertain, with a confidence of 75%. — 75%
• Renewable energy stocks will maintain their outperformance over traditional energy sectors in the next month as more countries announce new green energy initiatives, with a confidence of 80%. — 80%
• The housing market will confront further challenges in the next three months due to rising interest rates and ongoing supply chain disruptions impacting construction activity, with a confidence of 70%. — 70%
• The overall market index will exhibit fluctuations in the next three weeks as uncertainties surrounding global economic recovery, inflation concerns, and geopolitical tensions persist, influencing investor behavior, with a confidence of 75%. — 75%

2025-08-09 — 118 items — newsletter

• The price of oil will experience a slight increase in the next month as global demand picks up amidst easing geopolitical tensions, with a confidence of 70%. — 70%
• Tech stocks will face increased volatility in the next two weeks as regulatory scrutiny on big tech companies intensifies and market sentiment shifts, with a confidence of 75%. — 75%
• Renewable energy stocks will continue to outperform traditional energy sectors in the next month as more countries announce new green energy initiatives and commit to reducing carbon emissions, with a confidence of 80%. — 80%
• The housing market will encounter further challenges in the next three months as interest rates remain elevated and supply chain disruptions persist, impacting construction activity, with a confidence of 70%. — 70%
• The overall market index will exhibit fluctuations in the next three weeks as uncertainties surrounding global economic recovery, inflation concerns, and geopolitical tensions continue to influence investor behavior, with a confidence of 75%. — 75%

2025-08-08 — 130 items — newsletter

• The price of oil will see a slight increase in the next month as global demand picks up amidst easing geopolitical tensions, with a confidence of 70%. — 70%
• Tech stocks will face increased volatility in the next two weeks as regulatory scrutiny on big tech companies intensifies and market sentiment shifts, with a confidence of 75%. — 75%
• Renewable energy stocks will continue to outperform traditional energy sectors in the next month as more countries announce new green energy initiatives and commit to reducing carbon emissions, with a confidence of 80%. — 80%
• The housing market will encounter further challenges in the next three months as interest rates remain elevated and supply chain disruptions persist, impacting construction activity, with a confidence of 70%. — 70%
• The overall market index will exhibit fluctuations in the next three weeks as uncertainties surrounding global economic recovery, inflation concerns, and geopolitical tensions continue to influence investor behavior, with a confidence of 75%. — 75%

2025-08-07 — 133 items — newsletter

• The price of oil will see a moderate decrease in the next month as global supply surpasses demand and OPEC nations continue to increase production, with a confidence of 75%. — 75%
• Tech stocks will experience a minor correction in the next two weeks following a period of rapid growth and concerns over regulatory scrutiny on big tech companies, with a confidence of 70%. — 70%
• Renewable energy stocks will continue to outperform traditional energy sectors in the next month as governments worldwide announce new green energy initiatives and allocate more funding towards clean energy projects, with a confidence of 80%. — 80%
• The housing market will face further challenges in the next three months as interest rates continue to rise and construction costs remain high due to supply chain disruptions and labor shortages, with a confidence of 70%. — 70%
• The overall market index will exhibit increased volatility in the next three weeks as uncertainties around global economic recovery, inflation concerns, and ongoing geopolitical tensions remain elevated, with a confidence of 75%. — 75%

2025-08-06 — 130 items — newsletter

• The price of oil will see a moderate decrease in the next month as global supply surpasses demand and geopolitical tensions ease, with a confidence of 75%. — 75%
• Tech stocks will experience a minor correction in the next two weeks following a period of rapid growth and investor profit-taking, with a confidence of 70%. — 70%
• Renewable energy stocks will continue to outperform traditional energy sectors in the next month as governments announce new green energy initiatives and funding programs, with a confidence of 80%. — 80%
• The housing market will face further challenges in the next three months as interest rates continue to rise and supply chain disruptions persist, with a confidence of 70%. — 70%
• The overall market index will exhibit increased volatility in the next three weeks as uncertainty surrounding global economic recovery and inflation concerns remain elevated, with a confidence of 75%. — 75%

2025-08-05 — 129 items — newsletter

• The price of oil will see a significant decrease in the next month due to a sudden surplus in global supply and easing geopolitical tensions, with a confidence of 70%. — 70%
• Tech stocks will experience a minor correction in the next two weeks following a period of rapid growth and investor profit-taking, with a confidence of 75%. — 75%
• Renewable energy stocks will continue to outperform traditional energy sectors in the next month as governments announce new green energy initiatives and funding programs, with a confidence of 80%. — 80%
• The housing market will face further challenges in the next three months as interest rates continue to rise and supply chain disruptions persist, with a confidence of 70%. — 70%
• The overall market index will exhibit increased volatility in the next three weeks as uncertainty surrounding global economic recovery and inflation concerns remain elevated, with a confidence of 75%. — 75%

2025-08-04 — 86 items — newsletter

• The price of oil will see a moderate increase in the next two months due to ongoing supply chain disruptions and geopolitical tensions in key oil-producing regions, with a confidence of 75%. — 75%
• Tech stocks will maintain their positive momentum in the next month following continued innovation in the sector and positive earnings reports from major tech companies, with a confidence of 80%. — 80%
• Renewable energy stocks will outperform traditional energy sectors in the next three weeks as governments worldwide announce new green energy initiatives and focus on promoting sustainable energy solutions, with a confidence of 85%. — 85%
• The market index will face increased volatility in the next month as uncertainty surrounding global economic recovery persists and inflation concerns continue to affect investor sentiment, with a confidence of 70%. — 70%
• The housing market will encounter continued challenges in the next four months due to rising interest rates, persistent supply chain disruptions impacting construction, and affordability concerns, with a confidence of 70%. — 70%

2025-08-03 — 93 items — newsletter

• The price of oil will continue to rise in the next two months due to ongoing supply chain disruptions and increased global demand, with a confidence of 75%. — 75%
• Tech stocks will maintain their positive momentum in the next three weeks following a series of favorable earnings reports from key tech companies, with a confidence of 80%. — 80%
• Renewable energy stocks will outperform traditional energy sectors in the next month as governments worldwide intensify efforts to promote sustainable energy solutions, with a confidence of 85%. — 85%
• The market index will face increased volatility in the next month as uncertainty surrounding global economic recovery persists and geopolitical tensions escalate, with a confidence of 70%. — 70%
• The housing market will encounter continued challenges in the next four months due to rising interest rates and persistent supply chain disruptions impacting construction, with a confidence of 70%. — 70%

2025-08-02 — 137 items — newsletter

• The price of oil will see a moderate increase in the next three months due to growing global demand and ongoing supply chain disruptions, with a confidence of 70%. — 70%
• Renewable energy stocks will continue to outperform traditional energy sectors in the coming weeks as governments worldwide focus on promoting sustainable energy solutions, with a confidence of 80%. — 80%
• Tech stocks will experience a surge in the next month following positive earnings reports from major tech companies and increased innovation in the sector, with a confidence of 75%. — 75%
• The housing market will face continued challenges in the next six months due to rising interest rates and ongoing supply chain disruptions impacting construction, with a confidence of 65%. — 65%
• The market index will see fluctuations in the next month as uncertainty surrounding global economic recovery persists and geopolitical tensions impact investor sentiment, with a confidence of 70%. — 70%

2025-08-01 — 133 items — newsletter

• The market index will see a slight decrease in the next month due to concerns over inflation and supply chain disruptions, with a confidence of 75%. — 75%
• Technology stocks will continue to outperform traditional industries in the coming weeks as companies focus on innovation and digital transformation, with a confidence of 80%. — 80%
• The price of gold will experience a temporary dip in the next two months as investors shift towards riskier assets in search of higher returns, with a confidence of 70%. — 70%
• Renewable energy stocks will continue to gain momentum following new government incentives aimed at promoting sustainable energy solutions, with a confidence of 85%. — 85%
• The housing market will face challenges in the next six months due to rising interest rates and ongoing supply chain disruptions impacting construction, with a confidence of 65%. — 65%

2025-07-31 — 124 items — newsletter

• The market index will see a slight decrease in the next month due to concerns over the impact of rising interest rates on economic growth, with a confidence of 70%. — 70%
• Technology stocks will continue to outperform traditional industries in the coming weeks as companies prioritize digital transformation initiatives, with a confidence of 80%. — 80%
• The price of gold will see a temporary dip in the next two months as investors shift towards riskier assets in search of higher returns, with a confidence of 75%. — 75%
• Renewal energy stocks will experience a surge in demand following new government incentives aimed at promoting sustainable energy solutions, with a confidence of 85%. — 85%
• The housing market will face challenges in the next six months due to supply chain disruptions impacting construction and affordability concerns, with a confidence of 65%. — 65%

2025-07-30 — 133 items — newsletter

• The market index will continue to fluctuate in the next month as uncertainty surrounding global economic recovery persists, with a confidence of 70%. — 70%
• Technology stocks will experience a boost in the coming weeks following positive earnings reports from major tech companies, with a confidence of 75%. — 75%
• The price of gold will see a gradual increase over the next three months as inflation concerns and geopolitical tensions remain prevalent, with a confidence of 80%. — 80%
• Renewable energy stocks will receive further attention from investors as governments worldwide announce new green energy initiatives, with a confidence of 85%. — 85%
• The housing market will face challenges due to rising interest rates and supply chain disruptions impacting construction, with a confidence of 65%. — 65%

2025-07-29 — 137 items — newsletter

• The market index will experience a slight decline in the next month due to concerns over the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, with a confidence of 75%. — 75%
• Tech stocks will outperform traditional industries in the coming weeks as companies continue to innovate and introduce new technologies, with a confidence of 80%. — 80%
• The price of gold will see a temporary dip in the next three months as geopolitical tensions ease in key regions, with a confidence of 70%. — 70%
• Renewable energy stocks will receive a significant boost following the announcement of new environmental regulations by the government, with a confidence of 85%. — 85%
• The housing market will continue to face challenges in the next six months due to fluctuating interest rates and inflation concerns, with a confidence of 65%. — 65%

2025-07-28 — 79 items — newsletter

• The market index will see a boost following positive developments in trade negotiations between major global economies within the next three months, with a confidence of 70%. — 70%
• Tech stocks will outperform traditional industries after the release of groundbreaking advancements in artificial intelligence technology, with a confidence of 80%. — 80%
• The price of gold will experience a steady increase over the next six months as geopolitical tensions escalate in key regions, with a confidence of 85%. — 85%
• The demand for renewable energy stocks will surge following new government incentives aimed at combating climate change, with a confidence of 75%. — 75%
• The housing market will face a downturn due to rising interest rates and inflation concerns in the next year, with a confidence of 60%. — 60%

2025-07-27 — 85 items — newsletter

• The market index will experience a 10% correction within the next six months due to geopolitical tensions arising from corruption cases in Russia and EU aid cuts to Ukraine. - 70% confidence — 10%
• The retirement investment in the S&P 500 will underperform compared to a diversified portfolio of international stocks over the next year. - 80% confidence — 80%
• Houston's Astrodome will be repurposed for commercial use within the next five years as it fails to attract public interest in its current state. - 60% confidence — 60%
• Parents will increase contributions to college savings plans by 15% in the next two years due to rising concerns about the affordability of higher education. - 75% confidence — 15%
• The market value of cheese products will experience a temporary surge following the passing of James Leprino, as investors speculate on potential shifts in the industry. - 90% confidence — 90%

2025-07-26 — 20 items — newsletter

• The S&P 500 will hit another record high after the upcoming trade meeting, with a confidence of 75%. — 75%
• Tesla's 'friends and family' car service in California will see a 50% increase in usage within the first month of its launch. — 50%
• India banning lesser-known streaming apps will lead to a 60% decrease in overall viewership in the country. — 60%
• The release of $5.5 billion for schools by the White House will result in a 90% increase in educational resources and infrastructure improvements. — 90%
• Concerns over Trump pardoning Ghislaine Maxwell will cause a 70% decrease in public approval ratings for the President. — 70%

2025-07-25 — 2 items — newsletter

• Food brands will struggle to maintain their appeal on Wall Street as consumer demand drops by 70%. — 70%
• PayPal stock will continue its winning streak with a 80% confidence level, while AutoNation will continue to beat sales estimates at 75% confidence. — 80%
• The acquisition of Paramount by Skydance will raise doubts about business improvement, with a 60% confidence level. — 60%
• The tension between Trump and Powell will lead to increased market volatility with a 90% confidence level. — 90%
• The US rare raid in Syria will have a significant impact on the stock market with a 75% confidence level. — 75%

2025-07-20 — 71 items — newsletter

• The U.S. stock market will outperform emerging global markets by the end of the year with 75% confidence. — 75%
• The W.N.B.A. star fined for sneakers will see a 10% increase in shoe sales following the incident with 60% confidence. — 10%
• Federal workers who were fired will experience a 25% decrease in their household income within six months with 80% confidence. — 25%
• Americans will spend 15% more on coffee due to rising prices in the next year with 70% confidence. — 15%
• Investors betting on ETFs against U.S. Treasury bonds will see a 5% increase in ROI by the end of the quarter with 85% confidence. — 5%

2025-07-19 — 96 items — newsletter

• American Express earnings will continue to show robust spending in various categories, with a confidence level of 80%. — 80%
• Concerns about long-run inflation in the bond market will increase, with a confidence level of 70%. — 70%
• Block's stock will continue to climb after entering the S&P 500, with a confidence level of 85%. — 85%
• Microsoft will successfully remove reliance on Chinese engineers for Pentagon support, with a confidence level of 75%. — 75%
• Trump's lawsuit against Murdoch over the WSJ story and request to unseal Epstein and Maxwell transcripts will face legal challenges, with a confidence level of 60%. — 60%

2025-07-18 — 63 items — newsletter

• The price of Cryptocurrencies will increase by 20% within the next month due to the passage of the Genius Act and three regulatory bills in Congress. — 20%
• The Dow Jones Industrial Average will decrease by 15% in the next quarter amid increasing evidence on vaping risks and FDA approval of Juul vapes. — 15%
• Tesla stock will rise by 10% in the next three months following Elon Musk clearing final obstacles for Tesla in India. — 10%
• The value of the US Dollar will decrease by 5% against major currencies in the next six months due to Trump's policy on China's costs. — 5%
• The California real estate market will experience a 5% downturn in the next year as a result of the state aiming to counter Texas on redistricting. — 5%

2025-07-17 — 95 items — newsletter

• Prediction: BlackRock's stock will continue to rally despite ongoing significant client redemption. — 80%
• Prediction: Seven & i shares in Japan will continue to plummet as investors react to Couche-Tard's withdrawal of the acquisition bid. — 90%
• Prediction: Gaslight-driven development will become a more widely discussed topic in the software development community, leading to increased awareness and potential shifts in industry practices. — 70%

2025-07-15 — 20 items — newsletter

• Prediction: Developing countries will continue to face challenges in economic development in the next decade, with a 75% confidence level.
• Prediction: Tariffs will not have a significant impact on inflation in the next year, with a 90% confidence level.
• Prediction: Free-market economics will continue to be effective in driving economic growth in the near future, with an 80% confidence level.